The Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad is crumbling and we are witnessing the beginning of the end of a very brutal dictatorship, but sadly it will be a very bloody end. The situation will get worse, and more dangerous, before we see the overthrow of Assad and his cronies.
Syria has the biggest chemical weapons arsenal in the world – Israel’s deputy chief of general staff- Anthony Manduca
A number of media reports have claimed that Assad’s British-born wife has fled to Russia and there have been reports of mass defections by soldiers. Syrian forces and rebels are clashing in several neighbourhoods of Damascus and three top government officials died in a suicide bomb attack in the capital on Wednesday. A fourth died on Friday from injuries he received in the attack. The bombing of the headquarters of the ruling Baath Party’s National Security Bureau in Damascus will probably prove to be a turning point in the country’s revolution – when power really started to slip from Assad’s grip.
The ministers killed were Defence Minister General Daoud Rajha, who was a Greek Orthodox Christian, and Deputy Defence Minister General Assef Shawkat, brother-in-law to President Bashar al-Assad. Both generals were close to Assad, and both had US and EU sanctions imposed on them due to their direct role in the suppression of all those protesting against the government. General Hassan Turkmani, a former defence minister, also died in the bombing, while Hisham Ikhtiar, the national security chief, died from his injuries two days later.
The bombing follows the defection to Paris two weeks ago of General Manaf Tlas, a senior Republican Guard commander, and a member of Assad’s inner circle.
His was the highest level defection since unrest began 16 months ago and Tlas’ support for the rebels represents a major setback for the Syrian President. His defection is even more significant when one considers that the Tlas family had for decades given support to the Assad family and Tlas’ father was Defence Minister under Assad’s father.
Also important is the fact that unlike many of Syria’s Alawite leaders, Tlas is a Sunni Muslim, which signifies a further erosion of support for the Assad regime among the majority 74 per cent Sunni population. Tlas was believed to have been under house arrest since May 2011 because he opposed the military solution the regime had resorted to.
Last week he called for a political transition in Syria and condemned the military attacks on civilians. In his first statement to the media since his defection Tlas said the regime held “the majority of responsibility”.
Another important defection took place 11 days ago by the Syrian Ambassador to Iraq, Nawaf al-Fares, who denounced the “criminals of the regime” and called on the Syrian army to stand by the people.
He became the highest level diplomatic defector in the 16-month conflict. In a message to the military he said: “Isn’t your slogan nation, honour and loyalty? The people still believe you. Turn your guns towards the criminals of the regime.”
There is no doubt, therefore, that the regime of Bashar al-Assad is on the way out. This was recently emphasised by Israel’s military intelligence chief, Major General Aviv Kochavi, when addressing an Israeli parliamentary committee.
Kochavi said Assad’s grip on power was “growing weaker” and that the President had redeployed troops from the Golan Heights to back up the regime in Damascus. Kochavi predicted that Assad “won’t survive the upheaval”.
Unfortunately, Russia and China still don’t get this message and on Thursday they once again vetoed a UN Security Council resolution proposing further sanctions on Syria. After the vote, British Foreign Secretary William Hague rightly declared: “They (Russia and China) have turned their backs on the people of Syria in their darkest hour.”
Russia’s strategy towards Syria has been extremely short-sighted and one which it will regret in the long-term. Despite the absolutely horrendous human rights record of the Assad regime in this conflict – massacres, crimes against humanity, the bombardment of civilian areas, torture detention centres throughout the country – Russia continues to put its arms sales, its naval base in Tartus and its strong economic ties to Syria above such considerations.
Assad is now isolated internationally and his only friends (for now) remain the Russians, Chinese, Iranians and Hizbollah.
Morocco has expelled the Syrian Ambassador, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are said to be arming the rebels and the recent meeting in Paris of the Friends of the Syrian People made it clear that Assad could not form any part of a transitional government which the Security Council has called for.
Some diplomats and analysts now fear, however, that Assad will try and carve out an Alawite breakaway state in the western part of the country. The minority Alawite sect (an offshoot of Shia Islam), to which Assad and 13 per cent of the population belong to, dominate Syria’s ruling elite.
There have already been reports of the ethnic cleansing of Sunni Muslims in Alawite areas, which if continued could lead to a full scale civil war. Although such a small rump state would have little strategic value for Assad’s allies such as Russia and Hizbollah, and therefore could hardly be considered sustainable, it could play a very destabilising role in any post-revolution scenario.
Another problem is Syria’s huge stockpile of chemical weapons which Israel’s deputy chief of the general staff, Major General Yair Naveh, recently described as “the biggest chemical weapons arsenal in the world”. Syria is not a signatory to the International Chemical Weapons Convention and so the international community has no jurisdiction over these weapons.
Damascus is believed to have five chemical weapons manufacturing plants and 20 sites where mustard gas, and VX and sarin nerve agents are stored. There are serious concerns that as the regime crumbles, these weapons could be used against the rebels, or passed on to Hizbollah to use against Israel. Equally worrying is the possibility of these weapons falling into the hands of Al-Qaeda fighters who unfortunately have infiltrated Syria and taken advantage of the security vacuum.
Media reports have disclosed that the US and Israel have contingency plans to enter Syria, together with Jordanian troops, to secure such weapons. I hope this is true.