No summer holidays this year
Whether the general election is held in the autumn or early spring, there will no summer holidays this year. Not for the political class, certainly. The fresh din they will raise will join the festa bangs to destroy our quiet. Parliament adjourns this week, freeing our parliamentarians to join other candidates in breathless canvassing for votes.
Throughout the coming double heat the burning question will be, when will the Prime Minister set the election date? I continue to argue that, technically, he will not be in any rush.
If there are parliamentary sittings after the summer it is unlikely that there will be new votes of confidence, or that the three miffed Nationalist backbenchers will vote against the government.
That is not the point that will make up Lawrence Gonzi’s mind. Two main and opposing considerations will be what the opinion surveys are saying, and the Budget for 2013.
So far polled public opinion is telling him that the recovery offensive, kitchen and all, is not working. At least, not as much as expected or desired. It comes from more than one source that Labour is ahead by 10 percentage points among those who declared their voting intentions.
That is far from implying a definite win for Labour. The undeclared voters will decide the elections. But even if one splits them equally to the big parties, the Nationalists seem set to lose. The question the Prime Minister will be considering in this context is whether continued sustained efforts by the government team and the Nationalist Party gurus will make enough inroads to give him a sporting chance if he sets an autumn date.
In that regard he will be guided by Austin Gatt and Richard Cachia Caruana. Dr Gatt will be the one doing the double job, as a minister and as a leading PN campaigner. Mr Cachia Caruana will now have free time on his hands and – boy! – will he use it to prime PN as best as he can. His motivation to defeat Labour, always 100 per cent, will now double.
Whatever his major political advisers tell him, the Prime Minister will have to keep the Budget in mind. If he does not go for an autumn election, his Finance Minister would have to present the Budget for 2013. That would have to be done by around end November.
In that scenario it would probably be a ghost budget which might give the PM nightmares. Fist, there is its content. The Finance Minister would work against a domestic backcloth of lower than forecast GDP growth, higher than predicted national debt, and unfilled promises, such as capping the top income tax rate.
The Finance Minister would not be able to embellish his budget with sweeteners, not without falling into the financially ridiculous. Either way would give untold ammunition to the Opposition to slaughter the government with.
The choice, therefore, will be between unfulfilled expectations and false promises. The external backcloth – continuing austerity in the countries of our main markets – will compound the mix.
Briefly, then, I do not believe that the Prime Minister can afford to present the Budget for 2013, irrespective of the divisions in his own house. Most likely the general election will be called for late autumn, not long after the House of Representatives reconvenes from its notional summer holidays. A few weeks of parliamentary business should carry no fresh risks of embarrassment, and give the Gatt/ Cachia Caruana tandem and ministerial teams massaging people in full swing, that little extra time.
The question then becomes, what will the Labour Party be doing in the process and will there be any surprises to spring from either side? We should know soon enough.
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Gianninu Saliba
Jul 9th 2012, 16:00
Lino, If there are some 20% undecided voters, there is no chance in hell that half of them are Malta Labour Party supporters... Your Party has been in the Opposition benches far too long and the desire to see their Party in government must, I repeat, must be far too high to have so many Socialists undecided voters. If by any small chance there are, say a third of the 20% undecided to be socialists, then there must be something very wrong with Joseph, not being able to persuade his own flock to follow him. The vast majority of the other 18% who do not want to say how they are going to vote must be disgruntled Nationalists. They are too embarrassed to admit that for personal gains they want the PN believe that they will vote against the Party the support. Let's put it this way, when it comes to push and shove, the lost sheep will recognize the shepherd's voice... and they will flock around him.
By the way, Lino, Dr. Gonzi can hold the General Elections early in August next year and that will be seven months into the financial year. What makes you believe that it will be a ghost budget? I honestly think that at the back of your mind you were thinking of the Malta Labour Party's ghost electoral programme.
Mr Andrew Camilleri
Jul 9th 2012, 16:26
"They are too embarrassed to admit that for personal gains they want the PN believe that they will vote against the Party the support" - are you meauring these people's support by your own yard stick? I think you need to go out in the street and meet some real people - and stop watching illusions on Net.
J Cauchi
Jul 10th 2012, 15:15
MNr Saliba, it appears that you are not familiar with politics and the way people vote. The 20% undecided surely are n ot all PN supporters. there are a good percentage of those who work with Government and other Government owned companies and institutions who do not dare to declare their intenstions fort obvious reasons. I think that Lino spiteri was very conservative in dividing 50-50 the undecided votes. I believe that the longer the PN stys in Government, the bigger is the defeat.
GL Calleja
Jul 9th 2012, 13:49
Lino Spiteri you are a politician from way back. One question: If you were behind by 10 points in the polls would you call for an immediate election? Of course not. The Prime Minister cannot let the opposing party do the house cleaning for him anymore, sooner or later he has to start doing his own cleaning, or all will be lost for sure. He has to stop taking responsibility for some of his incompetent Ministers or the voting public will.
Please choose the reason of your report below: