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Gonzi’s tough job as PL races ahead

The red swing

The Nationalist Party’s fortunes seem to have got worse since January as it continues to lose voters to the Labour Party.

A stronger swing was recorded this month with 9.1 per cent of PN voters in the last election saying they would switch and vote Labour if an election was held tomorrow.

In January, a similar survey commissioned by this newspaper had established the swing was 5.8 per cent in favour of Labour.

A Malta Today survey last month also registered a shift of 10 per cent from the PN to Labour. The significant swing is probably the PN’s biggest worry, especially in the context of an election that was won by a very slim majority four years ago.

Almost 18 per cent of those who voted PN at the last election said they were uncertain on how they would vote in an election –a nd 5.7 per cent said they would not vote at all.

The numbers contrast heavily with those for the Labour Party. The number of undecided Labourites stands at almost seven per cent and the number of 2008 Labour voters who would vote PN today is insignificant.

Only 1.7 per cent of Labour voters said they would not vote if an election was held tomorrow.

Time to blow the whistle?

The Misco International survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 per cent.The Misco International survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 per cent.

Almost half of the people surveyed have said they would favour an early election.

With 48.6 per cent of respondents keen to cast their vote, the number is almost six points higher than in January when a similar survey found 42.7 per cent wanted the country to go to the polls early. However, 34 per cent are against, with 16 per cent saying they are undecided.

Asked when it should be, 20.1 per cent said now and 24.9 per cent indicated autumn.

PN voters are increasingly in favour of an early election. Whereas in January 13.1 per cent of PN voters wanted an immediate election, the number has now risen to 24.6 per cent. While 63 per cent of Nationalists did not want an early election, 12.4 per cent are uncertain.

As expected, 89 per cent of Labour voters favoured an early election, an increase of more than five points since January. Only 4.3 per cent are against an early election and 6.8 per cent were undecided.

Alternattiva Demokratika voters are relatively split, with 51.7 per cent wanting the Prime Minister to call a premature poll.

Question marks on party leaders

Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi’s uphill struggle is twofold: not only is his party going through a tough time, but satisfaction with his leadership has also dropped.

Asked whether they were satisfied with Dr Gonzi’s leadership 47 per cent said No, against 39 per cent who said Yes. Another 11.5 per cent were undecided.

A deeper analysis shows that 19.7 per cent of those who voted PN in the last election were unsatisfied with Dr Gonzi’s leadership.

However, the views of new voters are encouraging for Dr Gonzi.

Almost 61 per cent of new voters were satisfied with his leadership as opposed to 33.3 per cent who were not. Only 5.8 per cent were uncertain on how to rate Dr Gonzi’s leadership.

When it comes to Labour leader Joseph Muscat, who is yet to hold office, 34.2 per cent were satisfied with his leadership while 29.2 per cent were not.

However, Dr Muscat seems to present more of a challenge for voters since 33.7 per cent were undecided on their view about his leadership.

The level of uncertainty was also high among Labour voters and new voters.

New voters were split down the middle about their views on the Labour leader’s leadership. While 39.7 per cent said they were satisfied, 40.8 per cent were not.

The level of uncertainty among new voters about Dr Muscat was higher than that for Dr Gonzi. Almost 20 per cent of new voters did not know how to rate the Labour leader’s leadership.

A quarter of Labour voters also did not know whether they were satisfied or not with his leadership.

But the figures also show that Dr Muscat has made inroads among Nationalist voters with 13 per cent of them expressing satisfaction with his leadership. At the opposite end, 5.7 per cent of Labourites said they were satisfied with Dr Gonzi.

PN attracts new voters

New voters are a significant battleground for the political parties and despite its showing in the polls the Nationalist Party still holds sway in this crucial segment.

The survey showed that from those ineligible to vote in the last election, 31.8 per cent said they would vote for the PN, almost double those who would choose the Labour Party.

Labour attracted 16.4 per cent of new voters while Alternattiva Demokratika have 5.8 per cent.

However, new voters were also characterised by a high level of uncertainty with 32.3 per cent saying they did not know how they would vote if an election were held tomorrow. A deeper analysis of respondents by age group confirms the attractiveness of the PN to younger voters and the elderly.

Just over a quarter of those aged 18 to 24 would vote for the PN if an election were held tomorrow while 14 per cent would vote Labour and 3.4 per cent AD.

However, the tide shifted towards Labour in all age groups between 25 and 61 with the PN gaining the upper hand again among those aged 62 and over – its strongest result.

The Labour Party’s strongest showing was in the 45 to 54 age group where it commanded 40 per cent of the vote.

Of resignations and personal motives

In the space of a month, parliamentary motions moved by the opposition have forced former Home Affairs Minister Carm Mifsud Bonnici and Malta’s EU envoy Richard Cachia Caruana to resign.

Few people seem to believe the rebel MPs’ actions had the national interest at heart

But opinion poll respondents are divided over whether the Labour Party was justified in putting forward the two motions that eventually were supported by two government MPs.

While 36.4 per cent believe the PL was not justified to ask for Dr Mifsud Bonnici’s resignation, 33.2 per cent said Labour was justified in calling for the EU envoy’s resignation.

More than 38 per cent said they did not know whether the motions were justified or not.

A breakdown of figures based on how people voted at the last election showed 14 per cent of Labourites felt the Mifsud Bonnici motion was not justified, as 5.3 per cent of Nationalists agreed with it.

In Mr Cachia Caruana’s case, 13.2 per cent of PN voters said Labour’s motion for his resignation was justified while 3.7 per cent of Labourites said it was not.

And with the PN condemning three of its MPs for not toeing the party line when voting on the resignation motions, questions have been asked as to what motivated the renegades to act the way they did.

Franco Debono, who voted with Labour to oust the home affairs minister, Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando, who voted with the opposition to oust Mr Cachia Caruana, and Jesmond Mugliett, who abstained on the Cachia Caruana motion, have repeatedly said their actions were not motivated by personal agendas.

But few people seem to believe their actions had the national interest at heart.

On average, between 16 and 17 per cent of respondents thought the MPs were driven by national motives.

In Dr Debono’s case 41.1 per cent said his actions were personal while 24.2 per cent believed he had personal and national motives.

In Dr Pullicino Orlando’s case, 38.9 per cent said his decision was driven by personal motives while 18 per cent said his vote was based on a mixture of personal and national motives.

On the other hand, 31.2 per cent attributed personal motives to Mr Mugliett’s actions and just 13.5 per cent said his actions were determined by both personal and national reasons.

But the three MPs have also failed to convince those who voted PN in the last election that their actions were not personal: 54.3 per cent believe Dr Debono’s mo­tives were personal, 59.1 per cent said the same for Dr Pullicino Or­lando and 46 per cent for Mr Mugliett.

Labour voters were generally evenly split on the matter.

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Jonathan Camilleri

Jul 9th 2012, 17:33

@Mark Galea, a headache can vanish overnight if you take the right medication; that is probably the voters' disappointment when they are too closely tied to a political problem, rather than perceiving reality - including the bottom lines and economic problems - as they are, and, trying to find ways to move forward.

Life is hard, even for me as an unemployed person, and, frequently I feel abandoned by Social Security who decide not to give me any assistance because I live with my parents. Having no money makes my value as a prospective employee even worse, and, the business world don't care about my personal problems. But who cares about the poor?

I hope that political leaders care because they want my vote - unless I die in the course of trying to find employment or a placement. That is why I place so much value in political leaders. Do you have the same bad habit?

Political leaders are only human beings, they rise and fall like any other executive, and, there is no silver bullet solution for the economic and financial problems of our country, whether GonziPN rules, or JM rules.

We expect to see different shades and colors, but, what I am still highly dubious about the long-term viability of the well-being of our country, and, a good political leader still has not surfaced to convince me of a holistic solution. There will probably be none, but we will continue paying taxes for their salaries in any case.

W. Grech

Jul 9th 2012, 10:54

...clutching at straws...are we ??

stephen koludrovic

Jul 8th 2012, 21:39

Well, I always stated that 5 years is far too long. If the US can manage with 4 years why not us?

The shorter the term,the less stressed the people will be,

M Grima

Jul 8th 2012, 23:06

I guess you're one of the 'lucky' ones who have it good, perhaps too good under GonziPN. Well Mr. Cremona not many share your opinion which resembles the mind of a dictator.

B Grech

Jul 9th 2012, 07:27

You mean back to 1992. Well that would be a plus wouldn t it? Things economically speaking were much rosier back in the early 90s. Let s hope Muscat is elected :).

K CASSAR

Jul 8th 2012, 19:03

With all due respect Mr. Spiteri Jones. If the only issue that interests you is illegal immigration I congratulate you on your trouble free life. I shall be voting for the person that can give me the best chance of getting to the end of the month with a workers pay and the person that can provide the best education my children can get without having to pay for a private school. I need to know that a disabled child will be cared for after the parents are gone and that, should God bless me with a long life I should be treated with respect and love by the community I have paid my taxes to.

Alfred J. McEwen

Jul 9th 2012, 16:42

Alfred J. McEwen

Whilst I fully endorse your sentiments about illegal immigration, I must also fully endorse Mr. Cassar`s comments on his desire to see obligations he stated are fully met. However, we voters have to see whether the next``Shower in Power are indeed in the business of delivering the goods, as everyone with a bit of common sense knows that most electoral promises fall by the wayside, and the old adage..``it is not what the party can do for the country`` it is ``what the country can do for the party`` and with such a party this country won`t be going anywhere fast. One realises that this applies to both sides of the political spectrum, and having said this a vote by the nation must be cast in the hope that the next `` shower in power`` can meet it`s obligations and do the right thing for the country.

K CASSAR

Jul 8th 2012, 18:31

Way to go Victor!

Mr B. Fenech

Jul 8th 2012, 18:47

Sorry ta' jien zghazugh, u iktar matur minnek sabiha. Qed sew, u tiskanta ghalfejn n-nies jemnu li qatt ma tinbidlu tal-labour. Nitlob ghalik. ghandek bzonn. (y)

pat muscat

Jul 8th 2012, 19:14

@Victor Laiviera :One of the best political comment ever!

R. Saliba

Jul 8th 2012, 20:53

than I presume you'll be voting PN golden oldie

Cecil Herbert Jones

Jul 8th 2012, 19:46

It didn't listen then, do you think its going to listen now?

Nevertheless the aftermath of the next election will be the same irrespective who wins it.

George Azzopardi

Jul 8th 2012, 16:15

in 2008 GonziPN was elected

A N D........ ??????? !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

p galea

Jul 8th 2012, 16:36

Do you honestly think that it was the same atmosphere?????????????????????????????????

M Grima

Jul 8th 2012, 23:10

Stop reading the Beano, because you are getting confused!!!!

George Azzopardi

Jul 8th 2012, 16:16

what 20000 new jobs .. ara veru tibilaw kollox!

K CASSAR

Jul 8th 2012, 18:31

supermarket promoters and part time casual workers that work less than 20 hours a week are the 20000 jobs! FD and JPO are the ball and chain on Gonzi's feet as he's imprisoned by his undemocratic attitudes! The divorce motion, RCC and even the peoples desire for an early election. He should move on and allow fresh blood to pick up the pieces of a country broken by his oligarchy!

Charles Sammut. (NY)

Jul 8th 2012, 12:56

I guess you would not vote for the lesser of two evils..

Charles W. Sammut

Jul 8th 2012, 17:39

My dear namesake from NY City, We are in the sad situation where the two parties are like a pair of Siamese twins sharing one heart, one brain and speaking with two mouths. There is no lesser evil, unfortunately.

victor bonello

Jul 9th 2012, 15:04

maybe because it was not like what the PN try to depict... why were no trouble makers from the MLP ranks ever brought to justice?

Malcolm Farrugia

Jul 8th 2012, 12:41

In-nies diga qed jghidhu ahh meta jircievu il-kont tad-dawl gholi sforz l'inkompetenza ta GonziPanic, il-waiting list tal-Mater Dejn ma taqta xejn u it -80,000000 euro li ha jkollhu jhallas il-poplu minhabba il-kappric tad-dahla tal-belt!

J Abela

Jul 8th 2012, 14:14

Serrah rasek li tant kemm bkejna issa li jigri x'jigri mhux ha jifdlilna dmugh wara.

Forsi inti taf kif qieghed Sur Valletta, il-kumplament taghna ma nafux, ghax inutli nircievu l-ittri iffirmati qabel l-elezzjoni - wara ma jkunu jsarrfu xejn.

Ronnie Callus

Jul 8th 2012, 14:23

@ paul valletta:
Daaaaa zgurrrrrrr li nafu fejn qedien Sur Paul Valletta. B' ID wahda WARA u l-ohra QUDDIEM. Issa tghidtx kemm ghadd trid tibki u ahna mieghek biex nhallsu dak id-Dejn kollu li ghamel il-Partit li dejjem jghidilna kemm ahna sejrin tajjeb. Int din tifiemha ghax jien zgur ma' nifiehmiex. Veru mifxulien wahda u sew DAQQA tghidu li ghandkom 20 sena fil-Gvern kif qallilkom Austin Gatt u ohra imbezza daqs tant mill elezzjoni. Dan xi hadd jifiehmu ????? Ahdmu ghax se' nibqu l-art u Addio Austin u Addio l-RCC li qal jaf hafna ghax beda minn meta kellu 18 il-sena. U jista veru jaf hafna li ahna s'issa ghadna ma' nafhux x'gara bejn is-70's u l-80's . L-RCC tant kien mgharuf u tajjeb li Eddie kien tah promotion u kompliet taht Dr.Gonzi. We patiently wait, until some day we will see the outcomes.

M Grima

Jul 8th 2012, 23:12

Bhalissa lanqas uff jew ahh ma nistaw nghidu ghax bil-maskra tal-ossignu qed nghixu taht dan il-gvern!!!!

Rodnick Abdilla

Jul 8th 2012, 11:12

Ahjar zgur min dak b Austin Gatt , RCC , Carm Mifsud Bonnici, u Mind you Sciberras trigona qatt ma jista ikun ministru ghax mhux ser jikontesta elezzjoni . Plus insejt nies bhall Dr Deo Debatista, Dr Emanuel mallia, Chris Fearn, Gino Cauchi, Dr Deborah Schembri li tant hadmet u stinkat biex ikollna Divorzzju f malta, Profs Edward Scicluna, Inkompli ? dawn zgur mhux skaduti bhall ma hemm fin naha tal gvern li ma jafux fejn ser jitfaw rasom

Lawrence Fenech

Jul 8th 2012, 11:15

@Francis.

Ask Dolores Cristina the expert in education.

B Attard

Jul 8th 2012, 11:17

Diga taf min se jkunu l-Ministri?

G Schembri

Jul 8th 2012, 11:31

Uliedkom ser ikollhom l-istess futur bhal- uliedna. U mhux bhal-issa li uliedkom qed jiehdu jobs b'eluf ta' Euro kapaci jew le, filwaqt li min mhux tal-klikka jibqa' b'xejn. Taht gvern tal-Labour iz-zghazagh kienu jsiebu ghajnuna biex jibnu darhom. Ulied il-popolin nataw cans jidhlu l-Universita' bl-iskema ta Haddiem Student fejn kien ikollhom tal-inqas paga minima, u job garantit. Zghazagh bla xoghol kienu jidhlu fil-Korpi b'paga minima fejn kienu jigu trenjati ghal jobs ahjar. Fabriki kienu jhadmu z-zghazagh b'pagin tajbin, u kuntratti indefiniti, u mhux bil-kundizjonijiet prekarji bhal tal-lum. Kellu bzonn jitla l-PL u l-haddiem jerga lura ghal dak iz-zmien li konna sinjuri u ngergru.

Simon Bonello

Jul 8th 2012, 11:34

Ax bhalissa ghandom ux trid tghid inti? hahahahaha hadd ma jaf fejn hu qieghed !! iddahhaqx plzzzzz

Malcolm Farrugia

Jul 8th 2012, 12:44

@ Francis Zammit,

Dejjem ahajr ikun hemm Evarist bartolo bhala Ministru ta l'edukazzjoni milli wahda bhal Dolores Cristina, li kemm ilha Ministru tellfet bosta flus mil-Unjoni Ewripeja lil-istudenti Maltin!

M Grima

Jul 8th 2012, 23:19

Tkunx redikolu Sur Zammit. mela insejt il-frejjeg ta Dolores (fondi sospizi ta l-EU fl-eduzazzjoni), ta' Austin Gatt (Arriva) u Cassar li trasforma sptar "state of the art" fi sptar ta zmien il-baqq.

ANTHONY PAVIA

Jul 8th 2012, 18:20

The longer Dr Gonzi delays the elections, the bigger will be the party's disgrace by the electorate. It will be an venomously huge pill for Lawrence Gonzi to swallow. Apart from personal monetary considerations, this could be the other main reason for the delay. Too much damage has been flung on the island's economy because of the dilly-dallying of these past 6 months.

B Attard

Jul 8th 2012, 11:20

This is one main issue that is drowning the PN.But Gonzi doesn't admit.

Stefan Micallef

Jul 8th 2012, 10:26

Did Gonzi fulfll his promises?

Malcolm Farrugia

Jul 8th 2012, 10:31

If Joseph Muscat isn't mature enough to lead the country, how come many people from different walks of life, education and tenure are joining the movement he created?

G Schembri

Jul 8th 2012, 11:35

Joseph is not a piece of cheese, he does not have to be matured, it's only wine and cheese which have to be matured to give the best flavour.

R. Saliba

Jul 8th 2012, 10:18

And there was I, thinking that these results are due to the PL policies...

Malcolm Farrugia

Jul 8th 2012, 10:28

@R.Saliba,

Partit Laburista's policies are attracting more and more people everyday, the fact that PL is an open movement and not an oligarchy rotating on it's self is already a good way forward!

ALBERT FENECH

Jul 8th 2012, 10:33

...and mainly thanks to Dr Lawrence Gonzi and his entrenched enclave for clinging to stay in power at all costs when the majority of voters obviously want the GonziPN out at all costs. Even now Gonzi & Co cannot read the signs with GonziPN MP Edwin Vassallo yesterday causing hilarity and merriment by claiming that the GonziPN is "united". Such a claim beggars belief when everybody knows an open civil war is taking place within the GonziPN ... and the longer it is sustained the greater will be the damage to democracy because the very basic democratic element depends very much on having at least two reasonably strong parties to counter each other. The GonziPN has damaged Malta and Gozo not only economically but also in the way it has derided and ridiculed the very concept of democracy.

ALBERT FENECH

Francis Sammut

Jul 8th 2012, 10:48

Ms M. Caruana, I am neither here nor there were party allegiance stand, but pray, did Dr. Gonzi ever listen to the people where it counts. There is a litany of grievances that Gonzi could easily have smoothed out without any hurt to him, the government or the party but no, he wanted to do it his own way. I never thought and imagined that Dr. Gonzi, as Prime Minister, could be such a pig-headed and big-headed man! Does he ever listen to good advice? Or is he surrounded by imbeciles? I wonder! The people are very hurt indeed. Visiting home kitchens, is a bit late now, me thinks!

J Abela

Jul 8th 2012, 14:22

I believe you're supporting the elite considering you're against populism..

George Azzopardi

Jul 8th 2012, 16:19

what substance are you talking about .. our finance minister is no longer crediting statistics but is saying that they are wrong!!!

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