The immigrant arrivals so far this year are similar to those seen in the first half of the busiest migration year ever, but authorities are wary of making alarmist projections.
The capacity is there to handle such a number- UNHCR
Even though June has just begun, the migrant arrivals for 2012 already approach the 896 figure accounted for in the first six months of 2008, which then closed with a record 2,775 migrants.
However, a quick study of the month-by-month statistics for the past six years shows Malta’s experience of immigration makes projections very difficult to attempt.
One-off political developments have left their mark on the migration flows of the past three years, making each year unique in its own right.
For instance, this year’s migrant arrivals are also comparable to those seen in 2009, which then ended with one of the lowest annual figures of the last six years. This was the year that coincided with the EU’s European Parliament election, where a lull in arrivals between March and July was attributed to a lot of tough talk on migration during the campaign.
A year later, in 2010, the controversial immigration pact signed between Italy and Libya successfully stemmed the flow of migrants, resulting in an anomalous 47 arrivals during the entire year.
But the anti-Gaddafi revolution which erupted in Libya last year reopened the floodgates, seeing more than 1,500 arrivals by June as sub-Saharan Africans living in Libya fled for their lives not to be caught in the conflict. When the fighting drew to an end, however, migration dipped significantly during July, August and September, placing the situation back under control. The UN refugee agency estimates 1,500 immigrants to be the annual average for Malta, placing this year’s arrivals within that figure.
“In that sense there is no need to sound the alarm bells just yet. The capacity is there to handle such a number,” said a spokesman for the UNHCR.
Since this year’s arrivals are the first following the collapse of the Gaddafi regime, UNHCR is trying to identify new trends.
“The situation in Libya remains unstable with asylum seekers identifying armed militias as the main source of insecurity... Given this situation we have to expect that more people, including asylum seekers, will continue to flee Libya, some of them risking their lives at sea.”
The government says the data shows that flows from Libya were “always erratic” so no realistic projections were ever possible.
“Over the years, government entities dealing with illegal migration have therefore built the ability and capacity to adapt to such acute swings in arrival trends,” said a spokesman for the Prime Minister, now also responsible for Home Affairs.
All entities were currently “fully engaged” in providing routine services as well as adapting those services to vulnerable groups, given the number of women and children arriving this year.
“Those applying for asylum will be duly processed and action will continue to be taken to repatriate failed asylum seekers,” the government assures.
The Office of the Refugee Commissioner has strengthened its capacity in recent years, enabling it to process more than 1,500 asylum applications in a year, as happened in 2011. Once these requests are processed, the UNHCR works to resettle migrants to the US and various EU countries.
“The vast majority of those who arrived in Malta over the last decade are no longer here,” according to the UNHCR spokesman.
Some of these have left through official structures but many have left the island on their own, even though the EU does not allow for them to settle freely in other Member States, causing some of them to be returned.
It is estimated that between 4,000 and 5,000 people remain from the 16,000 who arrived since 2002.
“This means the actual total number has not been increasing in recent years even while there have been new boat arrivals. Among those who remain here many are working legally and paying taxes, although it is still a problem that some remain outside the regular labour market,” says the UNHCR spokesman.