Mathematician apologises for wrong Malta Eurovision prediction
A Michigan mathematician who predicted that Malta would come second in the Eurovision Song Contest has issued an apology.
Martin O’Leary had predicted that Sweden would win, but it would be pushed by Malta. Alas, Malta ended up 21st and never challenged for the top.
In his apology he wrote
The final is over, the dust has settled, and Sweden’s Loreen has won the 2012 Eurovision Song Contest. Congratulations to her—it wasn’t my favourite song on the night, but it’s a worthy winner, and obviously very popular across Europe.
Mostly I’m pleased because now I can test the model against new data. How did it perform? I’m going to put off doing a full evaluation because I don’t yet have the full results in a convenient form, but we can still look at some fairly simple measures of success.
First, though, I want to talk about the “Malta thing”. In the model predictions for the final, Malta was given a relatively high probability of victory—in fact they were ranked as the second most likely winners. As this was fairly counterintuitive, given their lack of strong friendship links, I picked out this prediction and tried to explain how it came about.
This prediction caused quite a stir in Malta, with a story in the Times of Malta and over 16,000 pageviews from Malta1 on Saturday alone. Many took this as good evidence that Malta were going to do well in the contest, and some people were rather annoyed with me when they did not.
I’d like to apologise if I misled anyone. I didn’t expect anyone to take the model predictions particularly seriously, and if I had known, I would have included some more caveats and explanations of exactly what the model was predicting. Instead, I was fairly loose and jokey about the model results, and didn’t really talk about what they meant in real terms. Sorry, guys.
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Mark Anthony Caruana
May 30th 2012, 13:18
I think you all got it wrong!
Probabilities are NEVER used to predict!!! that is rule number one in all Probability books...
Probabilities are only there to give an indication...!
even if the probability of an event is very high it does not mean that it will happen and equivalently if the probability of an event is very small then it doesn't mean that it cannot happen!
the probability that a cruise ship sinks is astronomically small and yet the Costa Concordia sank!
Joe Xuereb
May 30th 2012, 02:57
@Michael Camilleri (29th May 08:19). Mr. Camilleri, England does not do particularly well these days. That said, Engelbert gave a very rendition of his song considering his age. How many of the singers we saw this Saturday past will be singing at age 76? He gave proof of his mettle and was asked back. And with a voice like Engelbert's? I should mention too that everybody - well, almost - at the festival sings in English. Is that not accolade enough for you?
Steve Zammit
May 29th 2012, 20:21
No problem :)
John Azzopoardi
May 29th 2012, 17:18
I frankly don't know what the big deal is all about. The man should never have apologized. People bet all the time.
Alexander Farrugia
May 29th 2012, 10:25
Not only you mispredicted Malta from 2nd to 21st place, you also badly mispredicted Norway from 3rd to 26th place (dead last).
You should realise that no Bayesian inference can predict the results of any contest, much less that of the Eurovision Song contest. Just trying to give advice to a fellow mathematician.
Don't worry about it though... most of us Maltese take the Eurovision way too seriously for our own good.
Michael Camileri
May 29th 2012, 08:19
It appears that most countries, expecially the UK, do not realise that to win Eurovision you need something 'different and exciting'
Hossam Helwani
May 29th 2012, 08:15
well thanks to your wonderful ridiculous mathematical ingenious you managed even to scare those who wished to vote for Malta's song and sent it to place 21.
I was particularly disgusted at the comments given out by the rai tv presenter. I really wonder why italians are so jealous of us!!
Jonathan Camilleri
May 29th 2012, 07:49
lol, apology accepted, maths is subject to errata..
joe briffa
May 29th 2012, 07:43
Sore losers that is what we are....and if somebody will get this in mind once and for all,that the eurovision is not a talent festival,ITS POLITICAL CRAP....somebody tells me why Israel participates....when its far from being European??? Malta will never qualify to the first,not in song contests,no football,nothing...we have no potential.....only talent is not enough
S Bartolo
May 29th 2012, 09:03
Dear Mr Briffa, Yes Malta Does Bring Results, We are good and Excellent in Double Trap Shooting thanks to William Chetcuti and Nathan Lee Xuereb.Please Be Informed and give support.
Stanley Shaw
May 29th 2012, 10:36
I agree partially with you, however even when Malta had the best songs and talent, we could never win this contest. It's unfair play and every one knows that !.
On the other hand it's an event local artist seek to participate to promote their work and talent. If this experience enables them to promote their work and talent or not, in Europe or elsewhere I don't know and I don't want to comment on that, but if it helps them, then good luck to them.
Malta and most Maltese do not see the real areas in which we have a real potential and talent such as the sport quoted by Mr. S Bartolo, but instead we link and tag it, to something else and keep it in the back row 2nd Class or 3rd Class until there is a good result and it is impossible to hide.
Malta keeps pumping huge sums of money in areas, that for many years did not give return to National Pride.
P.S. About Israel if the show was for European countries only then your right why should Israel Participate.
Why should Turkey Participate ? if they give us points who the heck cares but even these countries seem not to like us ....
Mr C Galea
May 29th 2012, 07:37
why do people believe him in the first place is beyond me, perhaps he meant second from the bottom????
Gaetano Schembri
May 29th 2012, 07:04
PROSIT KURT AHNA IL MALTIN U IKTAR U IKTAR IL HAMRUNIZI KBURIN BIK --- U MA HADNIX DIN L-OHRA LI JMISS TA' MARZU 2013 NOHDUWA IFIMNI KURT U PROSIT
Alex Bugeja
May 29th 2012, 05:32
Anything on 21st. Dec 2012........................
Alex Bugeja
May 29th 2012, 05:27
Mr. O'Leary, don't worry about it and no need to apologize. We Maltese are called Gem Gem people.....whatever the outcome there's always that percentage of people that have to whine about it. The reality is Malta should either forget the Eurovision or except that we are what we are.
Sylvia Cilia
May 29th 2012, 04:42
Ahhh.... don't you love the Maltese???!!!!! So unique....!!! Love em....
The show is only entertainment for god's sake, stop taking it so seriously and enjoy it. Life is way to short to stress about something like that.... it was hilarious watching it from Oz... we could not stop laughing.
Enjoy!!
roberto bordino
May 29th 2012, 00:12
HE WAS GOOD ENOUGH TO WIN IT..... MORE THAN GOOD ENOUGH TO WIN IT
Robert Zammit
May 28th 2012, 23:04
http://www.eurovision.tv/page/history/by-year/contest?event=1593#Scoreboard
i. schembri
May 28th 2012, 22:37
malta came 21st cos there aren't any pop music talent, they're all lack something. if mr kurt tried to convince his mates to change hairstyle and way of dancing, he might have had a chance of coming 20th
Tony Dalli
May 28th 2012, 22:27
@Martin
What are your predictions, will Mr. Obama make it through the next elections?
David Vella
May 28th 2012, 22:23
Never mind Mr. O'leary, you're just a mathematician not a prophet!!! Surely it was not your night.
Savio Sacco
May 28th 2012, 21:51
I don't think the mathematician was entirely wrong. Kurt Calleja is (at the time of writing) second in the iTunes top songs :) See attached screenshot link.
http://goo.gl/N74ss
Although I suspect that iTunes shows a different link depending on which country you are accessing it from. If there is anyone reading this from abroad and has iTunes, would you mind check and confirm?
Peter Shaw
May 28th 2012, 20:58
This article sums it (pun intended) all up !!
Susan Cassar
May 28th 2012, 20:57
"I didn’t expect anyone to take the model predictions particularly seriously, [...]"
---> well if his model worked he would have probably said otherwise
Willie Sammut
May 28th 2012, 20:53
What kind of a Mathematician are you? Is someone calling you a Mathematician or are you calling yourself a Math Genius? Maths is a precise science and your theories prostitute all of that.
Freddie Micallef
May 28th 2012, 20:22
Ahna qatt ma nistghu nirbhu ghax ma ghandiex gar.LI KIEKU DIK LI REBHET KIENET MALTIJA MA KINIETX TIRBAH HI.Pero jien naqbel li ghanda nibqaw niehdu sehem.Proset Kurt u il Band.
Gordon Grech
May 28th 2012, 20:00
Ejja nghaqdu grupp tan-nanniet u nibghatuhom ikantaw il-happy christmas!
Jesmond Micallef
May 28th 2012, 21:47
What about Maltese Ghana Spirtu Pront, Mr. Grech ;-))
Cari A. M
May 28th 2012, 23:53
This would be so yesterday... I bet one of our problems is that we tend to look back at who went well the previous year and build up our songs around the winning song, yet for someone watching the Eurovision, it is the new spark that usually does well.
So unless we come up with something original, while stop trying to imitate others who went well in previous years, we will never do well.
Mr Peter Korsten
May 28th 2012, 19:27
"I didn’t expect anyone to take the model predictions particularly seriously, [...]"
The man has obviously never been to Malta. :)
Steve Elliott
May 28th 2012, 19:16
it was a very late april fools joke
Charles Cremona
May 28th 2012, 18:42
Never mind the Eurovision song contest there are better things to worry about like an invasion of illegal immigrants.
Alex Bugeja
May 29th 2012, 05:20
Bulls eye.
Michael Bugeja
May 29th 2012, 06:39
prosit charles,hawn hafna affarijiet x'ninkwetaw,go l-ingilterra hekk bdew, ghadna bizzejjed popolazzjoni, daqt nibdew nieklu xulxin
Daniel Cilia
May 28th 2012, 17:57
The guy also predicted that Denmark would win at about fourth place, while it went last. Please note that you can't rely on mathematics to solve what's going to happen in the future. Only God can tell.
M Caruana
May 28th 2012, 18:15
If people didn't rely on mathematics and more precisely probability theory to PREDICT (not solve) future events, insurances and money loans would not exist. Also there are whole subjects like Quantum Mechanics based on such theories and they are quite well behaved.
Jos Vella
May 28th 2012, 19:07
Daniel, the predicts were correct....the only formula that was left out of the equation was 'Neighbours'.
Jesmond Micallef
May 28th 2012, 21:44
M.Caruana,
Game Theory is also used in economics.
Jos Vella,
An equation contains Variables but also Parameters.
Jade Schembri
May 28th 2012, 22:08
Calm down boy. Stochastic modelling (use of Math and statistics) made many investors rich
Jonathan Camilleri
May 29th 2012, 07:50
God? lol
Alfred Dimech
May 28th 2012, 17:57
After reading the comments below I'm starting to feel that Joseph Muscat and the PL were onto something when they said that the education system in Malta has failed.
Daniel Cilia
May 28th 2012, 17:55
Great. Europe (except Sweden) lost to some old people (not that there's anything wrong with them) that sang their song in their own language. Russia is surrounded by neighbouring countries that all gave them a thumbs up.
Malta got 21st place because of our Geographical position. Take Iceland, for example. That country is far more away from other countries than Malta is. Guess what? It got 20 points!
francois esteva'
May 28th 2012, 17:44
Lol Lol Lol Lol why on earth would anyone trust a mathematician, thats stupid and irresponsible, this is like asking Yuri Gary when he was in a helicopter hovering over England's world cup.... The toospot got it rong again he would have been better concentrating on his bacon.
Gino Caruana
May 28th 2012, 17:43
gino caruana
DAN JISTA JGHIDILNA MIN SER JIRBAH L-ELEZJONI LI GEJJA ARA MA JFETTILUX JGHID JOSEPH TA' MA JMURX JERGA MA'JAQTAX U NERGA NIBILAWH TAHT GONZI............
Richard Caruana
May 28th 2012, 17:24
Jason Micallef, please note!
A. Mifsud
May 28th 2012, 17:09
I've made a bet that the song would come at least with the first 10, and I lost it. I'm now contemplating to sue Mr. O Leary in order to recover my money!
In future I shall never trust a mathematician with such predictions, instead I'll follow my inner intuition. Guessing Sweden would win was relatively easy as even bookmakers were paying peanut odds! Luckily I didn't lose much, another proof that GAMBLING NEVER PAYS not even when outcomes are (supposedly) scientifically backed by a mathematical formulas!
victor caruana
May 28th 2012, 17:07
Sur Martin...il-Maltin tbellaghlhom li trid....specjalment jekk tghidilhom li se jirbhu xi haga....
Joanna Bonello
May 28th 2012, 17:02
Geeeeee thanks !!
j dough
May 28th 2012, 17:01
well he got the '2' part right :)
Jean Paul Grech
May 28th 2012, 17:15
According to his model, Malta was the 2nd most likely to win (get first place I take it) - he also got the '1' right :P
Andrew Saliba
May 28th 2012, 17:00
He did not predict that Malta would come second, as many people were wrongly believe. He simply said that Malta is the second most likely winner. Not the same thing as saying that Malta is "likely to come second".
lilly vella
May 28th 2012, 16:58
eh issa se nwahhlu f dan?
Ms Rudi Mcbeal
May 28th 2012, 16:55
You're lucky that Jason Micallef is not yet the Minister for the ESC, Mr O'Leary - he would have insisted on your resignation.
On a serious note - no worries, a prediction is just that, a prediction. Some of my fellow countrymen and women take certain things much too seriously - ESC(after politics) is one of them.
Mr M Muscat
May 28th 2012, 17:16
Glad to read such comments on this site.
Bernard Pollacco
May 28th 2012, 17:47
england are always PREDICTED to win a major trophy but always fail when the tournament come 8)
Joseph M. Saliba
May 28th 2012, 16:46
Typical American predictions. Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destructions hidden in Iraq. |Gaddafi was responsible for the mass influx of illegal immigrants in Europe. He is dead and illegal immigrants are still on the increase. What else !!!!!!!!
Alfred Cassar
May 28th 2012, 19:40
Relax man!
Joe Grech
May 28th 2012, 16:36
Some Americans are really funny....they will do anything to catch the limelight!
Stephen Camilleri
May 28th 2012, 16:31
One of the female baking vocals turned 21,they sang in the 21st place and ended up 21st place....
N Chetcuti
May 28th 2012, 17:06
I thought that the Russians were the only ones baking on the night. Sorry Stephen but your slip was pretty funny. Thanks
Alison Bezzina
May 28th 2012, 16:29
And there I was thinking that MY math is crap!!!
http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20120527/blogs/urovision.421577
Joe Tabone
May 28th 2012, 16:28
Jason Micallef - Chariman of One Productions (PL) - has this answered your question of hyped expectations??
Was this guy the same one you had used to make the predictions for 2008 General Elections when you were PL General Secretary??
N Chetcuti
May 28th 2012, 17:07
Great lol
K Grech
May 28th 2012, 16:28
What is exactly the fuss all about? Cannot we realize that these are just predictions, and thus not 100% guaranteed of happening? Weather forecasting is also a prediction of the weather, even though we have a lot of past years' weather statistics we still have errors in some predictions and yet we don't do this much fuss. After all the final results are based on judges and televoting and not on this "Martin O’Leary's Predictions". If I was him I just wouldn't excuse myself because I know I have no supernatural powers to bring forward the precise results (even though he has a margin error of 19 places xD). But it's useless to stretches this thing for longer, surely wont change the outcome.
joe vella
May 28th 2012, 16:23
hope you don't hazard a prediction on the election outcome!
however may you may have a go at predicting
a) will the gozo tunnel ever materialise?
b) how long it will take to complete
c) how far overbudget will it turn out to cost
d) who will cut the string?
Joanna Bonello
May 28th 2012, 17:03
how much will it cost us to use it ??
anthony bartolo
May 28th 2012, 22:23
Mr. Joe Vella,it is not too difficult to predict the party you wil be voting.
Nobody In Particular
May 28th 2012, 16:23
How can anyone determine something of the sort purely on Maths is beyond me.
Someone needs a real hobby it seems! :)
Oliver Grech
May 28th 2012, 16:17
Mr. mathemetician, I believe you will soon receive a letter from Jason Micallef asking you to resign.
Ian Mamo
May 28th 2012, 16:26
Good One Bim
J. Caruana
May 28th 2012, 16:17
"Malta have very few strong inbound friendship links, either positive or negative. This means that their chances of victory are more sensitive than most to song quality."
well, he had a point there...
Mark Busuttil
May 28th 2012, 16:16
Hey Martin. No need to apologise - as you can see many people take this Eurovision thing and even themselves far too seriously. Perhaps they have nothing better to do with their lives, I don't know.
GEORGE CUTAJAR
May 28th 2012, 16:14
As this was fairly counter intuitive, given their lack of strong friendship links........
There is your answer Mr. Jason Micallef ' pratikament' chairman and/or CEO of PBS.
Ms maria bonnici
May 28th 2012, 16:14
so many knew the results beforehand............................... we were not mislead by your predictions, but at least we made it to the finals
Mr Lawrence Mifsud
May 28th 2012, 16:13
That is what they are...foolish predictions. Mathematics do not come into this: just neighborly love.
joseph saliba
May 28th 2012, 16:12
After all it was quite an entertaining evening. Second placed Russian oldies deserved it. Let's hope the 12.12.12 prediction will have the same fate as our song. Kurt you found a place in the Maltese hearts, stay there.
O Galea
May 28th 2012, 16:11
Don't be too hard on yourself... apology accepted ! :-D...... yr predictions were fun to read but as you said...they were just predictions based on a number of very fluid and unkown factors. People who would take it as gospel, (and be distressed by the result) need their head examined.
Matthew Bugeja
May 28th 2012, 16:11
dear mathematician ! next time in your equation put x as (neighbours) !
Juanita Cassar
May 28th 2012, 16:40
I think you'll find he has already taken neighbours into account, and guess what – it turns out they're as important as "song quality". Reading this might help: http://mewo2.github.com/nerdery/2012/05/20/ive-got-eurosong-fever-ted/
Victor Calleja
May 28th 2012, 16:11
He should now predict our general elections results. Very easy 50/50.
stephen koludrovic
May 28th 2012, 16:08
Don't worry mate, your mistake is very minor compared to the mathematical economists that have screwed up the financial world.
Peter Montebello
May 28th 2012, 16:07
Maybe that is why Jason Micallef asked for an inquiry about the final results.
Eve Axiaq
May 28th 2012, 16:01
Next time keep your foolish predictions for yourself!
Mr David Ganado
May 28th 2012, 16:14
Take a chill pill woman! If you ever believed Malta would win or come second then you are a very naive person considering the quality of the Swedish song and another couple of others.
Matthew Camilleri
May 28th 2012, 16:15
You really do take life too seriously don't you??
Tommy Vella
May 28th 2012, 16:21
It wasn't that foolish. He bagged the winner.
Ian Mamo
May 28th 2012, 16:26
someone must have taken this personally.... lost a bet jew?
David Pisani
May 28th 2012, 16:26
You should go and tutor him in statistics, so that his predictions won't be "foolish" next time round. They were just predictions, and like any prediction, they may fail. That does not make them foolish.
Juanita Cassar
May 28th 2012, 16:27
Dear Eve, I'd suggest you kept your foolish comments to yourself instead. Dr O' Leary was having a bit of fun with mathematics on his website on the frivolous topic of the Eurovision, which this news website (rightly) picked up as a fun story.
I for one found his method very interesting, and am sure this glitch will help him develop a better model next time round – it cannot be denied that the mechanics at play in the Eurovision song contest are highly complex, and this glitch showed how complex it all actually is.
I would rather be exposed to the workings of a brilliant mind such as his, rather than the idle criticisms levelled at him by the likes of yourself.
Please choose the reason of your report below: