There is a possibility – no more than that given the prevailing volatility – that a Sunday in October will be a red letter day for either Lawrence Gonzi, Prime Minister and leader of the Nationalist Party, or Joseph Muscat, Leader of the Opposition and the Labour Party. It well might be the day after the general election is held.

Labour would not be justified in placing a motion of no confidence in Carm Mifsud Bonnici under normal circumstances- Lino Spiteri

Contrary to expectations, that will not come about because of some money Bill, but due to the potential outcome of the opposition motion of no confidence in Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici.

Nationalist backbench MP Franco Debono has become very transparent in his strategy. While remaining a staunch Nationalist he holds little truck with how Gonzi is leading the government.

He is prepared to embarrass him at every turn, as he has done several times already. Yet he is not prepared to bring down the government by voting against it on a money Bill.

Last week he demonstrated he will not even abstain. He has chosen his tactics and will stick to them. His political career is over, but he will not go down as the man who ended the life of his own government.

That test is easy enough. A sterner one will come up on May 30, when the House of Representatives will vote, if the opposition calls a vote, on the no-confidence motion in Mifsud Bonnici.

If such push does come to shove it would be harsh on the minister. In many regards he is the least political of the Cabinet team. His language is usually more moderate than most. He has no personal animosities and might not even know what it means to go for the jugular.

That initially he was put in charge of both justice and the home affairs was not his fault. It was the Prime Minister’s decision. A bad one, but Mifsud Bonnici did not make any manifest misuse of his undesirable dual role.

Administrative gaps and errors may have been there while he held both portfolios. But not such as to justify the opposition to place a motion of no confidence under normal circumstances.

But, we are not living in normal circumstances. That the government only has a one-seat majority is normal enough. Still, at present it is held by Debono, who has various differences with his Prime Minister, a number of them stemming from correct conviction, others from rather out of bounds stances.

That situation is too juicy for an opposition which would like to see the general election held now, rather than tomorrow, to pass by. Labour is being no more opportunistic than the Nationalist opposition was in 1996-98 in regard to a Dom Mintoff on the war path against his side.

Politics is nothing if not a cynical game. Playing that game in turn the Labour opposition will give Debono the opportunity to vote against his apparent nemesis, Mifsud Bonnici, on May 30.

Place no bets on what he will do, though he seems to have painted himself into a corner. He could vote with the government, or abstain, leaving the Speaker to use his casting vote to save Mifsud Bonnici, like he saved Austin Gatt according to precedent.

In that case Debono will lose more face than a colourful general in retreat. Or he might climax his criticism of Mifsud Bonnici with a vote for the no-confidence motion, felling him.

That is where October would come in. If the no-confidence motion passes I believe the Prime Minister will take a final decision. He will show solidarity with Mifsud Bonnici by calling an early election, despite Gatt’s probable opposition.

Not too early, though – Gonzi is no fool and he knows that every month gained will give him time to recoup lost votes, with the government and Nationalist Party machines in overdrive. Going for October will give the machines another four months during which to give or promise all that and heaven too.

Knowing that, what will Debono do? I wouldn’t hazard to guess. I will opine, though, that if he votes against Mifsud Bonnici and force Gonzi’s hand, the Nationalist leader is likely to gain votes, not lose them.

This is where Labour comes in. Would such an outcome help or hinder it? My reading is that it will cost Labour potential votes. If I were a Labour Party strategist I would opt to discuss the no-confidence motion, leaving it to be talked out without calling for a vote.

Labour might ask why it shouldn’t be as cynical as the Nationalists in 1998. Because it may not pay them, that’s why.

One can be too cynical and opportunistic, and create a backlash. That also applies to the motion against Richard Cachia Caruana. There is no doubt that the eminence grise has wielded tremendous power for all of the Nationalists’ 25 years in office, bar 1996-98.

He started under Eddie Fenech Adami, was sidelined for a while when Lawrence Gonzi took over, but soon hit the top again, including a seat in Cabinet.

Yet that is not his responsibility, but of Fenech Adami and Gonzi. In regard to the Partnership for Peace, should hehave erred in how he positioned Malta, the political responsibility for that rests with the foreign minister of the time.

Criticise Cachia Caruana, but parliamentary motions of confidence are not moved against civil servants or bureaucrats.

But then, Cachia Caruana is another of Debono’s targets, so more grist to the opposition mill grinding out criticism of the government.

I would think that the Labour opposition has a much broader basis for criticising the government directly and presenting itself as a credible alternative government.

Opportunistic manoeuvres with Mintoff at the centre worked for the Nationalists in 1998.

I’m not s sure, even ethics aside, that they will have a similar effect for Labour in 2012 in terms of gained votes.

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