As expected, Nicolas Sarkozy was defeated in France’s presidential election by Socialist candidate François Hollande, who now takes office on Tuesday.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has already made it clear that renegotiating the fiscal pact is not an option- Anthony Manduca

Sarkozy is the latest European leader to be toppled by Europe’s debt crisis, although there are other reasons why he was not re-elected. Hollande, on the other hand, becomes the first Socialist to move into the Élysée Palace since François Mitterrand left office in 1995.

It was always going to be an uphill battle for Sarkozy as he tried to persuade voters to give him another term in office. He consistently trailed his Socialist opponent in the polls, he became the first incumbent President not to win in the first round of voting, his brash personal style irritated many Frenchmen, and during his presidency both the jobless rate and the public debt reached very high levels. Sarkozy also underestimated his opponent’s ability to run a good campaign.

Mr Sarkozy deserves credit for keeping France out of recession since mid-2009, for presiding over a successful foreign policy (he showed great leadership over Libya, at the G20 and during the eurozone crisis), for bringing about modest economic reforms (such as raising the retirement age) and for making progress in reducing the deficit.

However, many voters believed he had not delivered much on what he had promised and were attracted to Hollande’s emphasis on growth as opposed to just austerity measures, as well as to the Socialist candidate’s ‘normal’ personality in contrast to Sarkozy’s perceived assertiveness and the flaunting of his personal life.

While support for Hollande was solid among all left-wing voters, the same cannot be said for Sarkozy’s support among the other forces of the right and the centre.

Sarkozy’s fate was effectively sealed when Marine Le Pen, the leader of the right-wing National Front, who received 17.9 per cent of the vote in the first round of voting, refused to endorse the President and when François Bayrou, the centrist candidate who got 9.1 per cent of the vote in the first round said he would vote for Hollande in the second round.

Hollande received a comfortable 51.62 per cent of the popular vote, which gives him a clear mandate to govern. It is worth pointing out that Hollande got 57 per cent of the vote among the 18 to 24 age group and a massive 62 per cent of the vote from the 25 to 34 age bracket. This is not particularly surprising as youth unemployment in France has reached 22 per cent.

Hollande now has some very difficult choices to make and takes office at a critical time for both France and the EU. Many eurozone countries are in recession and are suffering from high unemployment rates, and two-thirds of Greek voters last week voted for parties that rejected their country’s bailout package.

Hollande’s campaign was characterised by a promise to introduce economic growth measures, both at a national and a European level, and he will have to perform a delicate balancing act – by not threatening financial sustainability – as he attempts to implement his electoral pledges.

While France’s President-elect is right to emphasise that growth is essential for any economic recovery and for job creation, he is wrong to suggest that the EU’s fiscal pact should be re-negotiated. This pact is an essential tool to ensure financial discipline and sustainability and should not be tampered with.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has already made it clear that renegotiating the fiscal pact is not an option, but this does not mean the EU can’t come up with a separate agreement to promote economic growth at a European level. In fact, Herman Van Rom­puy, the president of the European Council, is to host a formal ‘growth’ summit on May 23.

Of course, EU member states are free to introduce their own national measures aimed at stimulating economic growth and Hollande has already pledged to create 150,000 new jobs, including 60,000 teaching jobs. He has also promised to raise the minimum wage, to lower the retirement age from 62 to 60 for some workers and to reverse some civil service cuts. Such measures, however, will be costly and could jeopardise Hollande’s promise to balance the budget by 2017.

A major challenge for Hollande is to carefully manage France’s relationship with Germany, which is absolutely essential for Europe’s long-term stability and sense of direction. He is due to meet Merkel this week where the two are expected to discuss some sort of European growth pact – without, of course, resorting to renegotiating the fiscal pact.

I believe both countries cannot afford to allow a rift to appear between them, and being a consensual personality, Hollande will want to bridge any differences between himself and the German Chancellor. It will be interesting to see how much common ground is reached between Merkel’s emphasis on structural reforms for achieving growth and Hollande’s belief in creating growth through stimulus packages.

Greece is likely to be discussed during this meeting and Merkel will no doubt do her best to convince Hollande that the Greeks must honour their commitment to the bailout packages, or face the consequences of a default and an exit from the eurozone.

Hollande’s comments on Greece will be eagerly awaited, considering he has been critical of Europe’s austerity measures.

Hollande’s first test will come in June when the country votes in parliamentary elections.

A newly-elected French President is usually subsequently rewarded with a parliamentary victory, so we can expect Hollande’s Socialists to do well.

However, should the centre-right win (possible, but unlikely) it would prove that this presidential election was all about getting rid of Sarkozy and not about France turning to the left. That would be a very interesting development.

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