What happens next after Parliament meets on May 9 to vote on an important money Billdepends on how Franco Debono votes.
The Sunday Times explains the legal and political ramifications of three likely scenarios.
In the circumstances where an election is not forced on the Prime Minister, Malta may go to the polls in October, say PN sources.
The Constitution states an election can be held between one and three months from the day Parliament is dissolved by the President.
Why is the Bill important?
The Budget Measures Implementation Bill implements plans announced in November.
It provides an important financial lifeline for the government as it brings into force revenue-raising measures, such as higher excise taxes on bunkering, cigarettes and cement.
It also authorises the government to borrow €700 million in stock, without which the Administration could become paralysed.
The government can collect revenue due from excise taxes but, until the Bill is approved, the amounts would have to be held in deposit. If the Bill is rejected or not passed within six months – which expire on May 14 – the money collected from the new taxes will have to be reimbursed with interest, according to the Revenue Security Act.
Scenario 1: Debono votes with the government
This is the easiest of scenarios since the money Bill will garner a natural majority and the Budget measures will come into force.
The administration can continue its term in office until March 2013 unhindered.
The question that will have to be answered at a later stage is what will happen if, after the Budget Bill, Dr Debono abstains or votes against the government on other Bills or motions.
If this happens, the consequences will be political rather than legal.
The Prime Minister will still have the luxury of deciding an election date himself within the political constraints of losing potentially embarrassing votes.
But the government will still have the money to continue administering the country since the Budget will have been implemented.
Debono votes against the government
The Budget Bill will not be approved and the measures it contemplates, including authorising the government to borrow money, will not come into force. This means the administration will be heading towards financial gridlock.
According to constitutional law expert Prof. Ian Refalo, the consequences of losing a money Bill are “very serious” and “tantamount to losing a vote of confidence”.
Prof. Refalo says the Prime Minister will not be constitutionally bound to advise the President to call an election within three days, as is the case if a vote of confidence is lost. However, with an administration bereft of money it is unlikely the Prime Minister will delay taking one of two decisions: he may advise the President to dissolve Parliament and call an election or resign from office.
It all boils down to constitutional convention at this stage, as the decisions are of a political nature, Prof. Refalo argues.
If the government resigns, an election is not an automatic consequence because the President may seek to appoint as prime minister somebody “who can command the support of a majority of the members of the House”.
Failing to do so within “reasonable time” will prompt the President to dissolve Parliament and set an election date.
Debono abstains from voting
The vote in Parliament will be a tie and the Speaker will have to use his casting vote.
According to parliamentary practice and constitutional convention, the Speaker will vote with the government and the Budget Bill will be approved. At this stage, the administration can continue in office unhindered.
But the government will be taking note of the political consequences of not managing to garner a majority from its benches.