The choice facing France

With two weeks to go before the first round of France’s presidential election President Nicolas Sarkozy and his main challenger, Socialist candidate Francois Hollande are running neck-and-neck in the opinion polls. Hollande, who until now was leading in the polls, has seen his lead evaporate, although he remains the favourite to win in the second round election against Sarkozy.

In France, most voters tend to identify with the political centre, so no candidate can afford to veer too far away from a centrist platform- Anthony Manduca

A number of factors have contributed to Sarkozy narrowing the gap with Hollande in the opinion polls. His statesmanlike reaction to the Toulouse killings, the shift in focus to security and the perceived Islamist threat in this election, his threat to withdraw from Schengen should illegal immigration not be curbed and his protectionist comments over cheap imports have all helped the President regain the momentum in this election.

The first round of the French presidential election is contested by a number of candidates ranging from the far right to the far left, and mainstream candidates sometimes have to move away from the political centre in order to compete with their rivals on the fringes of the political spectrum.

This election is no exception, which explains Sarkozy’s hardline stance on immigration, as well as Hollande’s proposal to raise the income tax rate to 75 per cent for anyone earning €1 million.

There are nine candidates contesting the first round of the presidential election, namely Sarkozy, Hollande, Marine Le Pen, leader of the far right National Front, Francois Bayrou, leader of the centrist Democratic Movement, Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of the Left Party, representing the Left Front (including the Communists), Eva Jolly, representing the Green Party, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, leader of the Arise Republic and a former member of the centre-right UMP (Sarkozy’s party), Nathalie Arthaud, representing the Workers Struggle, and Philippe Poutou, representing the New Anti-Capitalist Party.

Although the seven other candidates all represent a threat to Sarkozy and Hollande, it is really the National Front’s Marine Le Pen, the centrist Francois Bayrou, and the left-wing Jean-Luc Melenchon who offer the greatest challenge in the first round.

Although the polls all point to Sarkozy and Hollande making it to the second round, the votes of the defeated candidates will, however, be crucial in determining who will win the election.

While it is likely that most National Front voters will switch to Sarkozy and most Jean-Luc Melenchon voters will turn to Hollande in the second round, the big question is who supporters of the centrist candidate, Francois Bayrou, will vote for in the second round on May 6.

Bayrou could well prove to be a kingmaker in the election, and although his support in the polls is running at about 12 per cent, substantially less than the 18.6 per cent of the vote he received in the 2007 election, he could well determine the outcome of this election if he publicly endorses a candidate after being eliminated in the first round.

There is some speculation that a deal could be made between Sarkozy and Bayrou, with the former perhaps appointing the latter Prime Minister should the President be re-elected, in return for getting his support in the second round of the election.

Such an endorsement would be absolutely crucial in sending Sarkozy back to the Élysée and would portray Hollande as the candidate who appeals only to the left. In France, like in most industrialised democracies, most voters tend to identify with the political centre, whether from a centre-right or centre-left viewpoint, so no candidate can afford to veer too far away from a centrist platform.

Although Sarkozy’s support in the polls is on the increase, it will nevertheless not be easy for him to be re-elected. He has never been a particularly popular President and soon after his election the French were not happy about the fact that issues about his personal life were made public.

Basically, they wanted him to concentrate on affairs of state instead of his love life. Sarkozy soon learnt to be more discreet about such matters, but of course it has been economic issues that dominated his presidency and continue to dominate the presidential campaign, even though law and order have been given a higher profile.

Since the euro crisis began most governments in the eurozone facing re-election have been thrown out of office and some have collapsed, so history is not really on Sarkozoy’s side. The President’s economic record, however, is a mixed one. Unemployment has remained stubbornly high at over nine per cent and public debt has reached a worrying rate of 85.8 per cent of GDP.

However, the deficit for 2011 has been reduced to 5.2 per cent of GDP, down from 7.1 per cent in 2010 and well below the official target of 5.7 per cent, France is the only large Western nation not suffer negative growth in any quarter since mid-2009, borrowing costs for France are far below those for Spain and Italy and despite massive strikes and street protests Sarkozy convinced the French Parliament to vote in favour of raising the retirement age from 60 to 62.

Although Sarkozy has a good international record – his leadership during the Libya crisis and France’s re-integration into Nato’s military wing are just two examples – foreign policy is not expected to be a major factor in this election. The management of the economy, however, is bound to be a major theme of this election with both Sarkozy and Hollande claiming to be the better candidate.

If Sarkozy manages to portray Hollande as an out-of-touch, time-warped 1980s Socialist who could threaten Europe’s fragile economic recovery by re-opening (as he has promised to do) the eurozone’s economic fiscal discipline treaty, then the President has a good chance of re-election.

If, on the other hand, Hollande convinces voters that Sarkozy achieved very little during his term of office, especially with regard to job creation, then France could have its first Socialist President in 17 years.