Effective solution for Syria

The news emerging from Syria makes for grim reading. The protests that began a year ago have now turned violent and, in some cases, deadly. The death toll is now thought to be in the region of 10,000.

The tide for democratic change cannot be overturned...- André P. DeBattista

Approximately 15,000 Syrians have fled their country to neighbouring Turkey. Some leaked e-mails published by The Guardian and attributed to President Bashar Hafez al-Assad seem to indicate that he is indifferent to the suffering of ordinary Syrians.

The Assad family has ruled Syria with an iron fist and a disregard for human rights since 1971. Bashar al-Assad assumed the presidency in the year 2000 following the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad. Several family members occupy various strategic posts and form a tight inner circle that dictates policy in Syria.

Since the start of the uprising in March 2011, President Assad has tried to make several conciliatory moves. These included several amnesties and a referendum on constitutional reform. Such measures fall short of a fully functioning democracy.

Following the imposition of EU sanctions on Syria in August 2011, British Foreign Secretary William Hague said that “unless there is meaningful change in Syria and an end to the crackdown, President Assad and those around him will find themselves isolated internationally and discredited within Syria”.

The events of the past months have proved Mr Hague right. The Arab League has joined the chorus of condemnation and suspended Syria’s membership and Britain, France, Italy and Saudi Arabia have all withdrawn their diplomatic representatives from Damascus.

The wider international community seems to be in a quandary over how to act in Syria. There are political, economic and humanitarian concerns that must each be given their due weighting.

The geopolitics of the region have always been sensitive to both global and regional pressures. Syria’s staunchest ally, Iran, has already threatened to respond to any external intervention in Syria.

Analysts have pointed out two very salient points: civil conflict in Syria has already led to some sectarian skirmishes in neighbouring Lebanon and Iraq while the Syrian opposition is still divided over foreign military intervention on Syrian territory. Efforts by the Assad regime to reform the centrally planned Syrian economy have been marred by inefficiency and corruption, which have long discouraged much-needed foreign investment.

Economic sanctions have also hit the Syrian economy negatively. The Syrian government has projected a reduction in oil revenue of $2 billion and negative real GDP growth has been projected for 2012.

The prevailing situation allows very little room for appeasement or passivity. The unfolding humanitarian tragedy has prompted various international organisations to accuse the Assad regime of committing crimes against humanity. The reports emerging from Syria are consistent with this charge.

The United Nations High Commission for Human Rights reported the random execution of 17 people in Baba Amr and 23 people were tortured and killed in the city of Idlib.

The Red Crescent was hindered in its work to evacuate the wounded and provide the necessary help.

Journalists fleeing the city of Homs have reported that the army fired on fleeing women and children.

US Senator John McCain has recently argued for military intervention in Syria. It may be too premature to resort to military intervention; particularly in view of the diverging opinions on this matter among the Syrian opposition and the regional implications this may have. However, such action cannot be entirely discounted at this stage.

The international community cannot sit idly while a massacre ensues.

A United Nations Security Council resolution, drafted by the Arab League with the aim of providing a peacekeeping mission to safeguard the lives of civilians caught in the conflict, was vetoed by both China and Russia.

Out of sheer self-interest and/or moral bankruptcy, the actions of these countries have thwarted the measures needed to safeguard the lives of Syrian civilians and failed to send a strong united message in favour of democratic transition, respect for human rights and the rule of law.

The former Secretary-General of the UN, Kofi Annan, has been appointed as a joint special envoy for the UN and the Arab League to Syria. Mr Annan urged the Security Council to speak with “one voice” and send a strong message to the incumbent Syrian regime.

All possible channels, be they political, economic or diplomatic, must be exhausted in an attempt to find a lasting solution. Civilians under siege require effective protection and economic aid. The violent response to the protests by the Assad regime and its reluctance for any meaningful reform certainly put in doubt its legitimacy.

The tide for democratic change cannot be overturned and countries with a credible democratic record must respond to this situation. The need for an effective response has never been more urgent.

andre.deb@gmail.com

The author is a public policy graduate from the University of Malta and is reading for a Masters of Arts in International Relations.