The leaders of the political parties have already reacted to Saturday’s local election results.

With over 55 per cent of the popular vote and new majorities in three local councils, Labour leader Joseph Dr Muscat claimed victory.

On his part, the Prime Minister acknowledged that his party has a lot of work to do to win back the support of the electorate.

But beyond these statements, the parties ought to make and will most probably be making a deep analysis of the results.

Unlike in a general election, where the parties’ target (winning the majority of votes) and the outcome (either win or lose) are crystal clear, local elections are a different beast. Party targets are translated according to how the campaign unfolds. At the end of the process, it is very possible that both parties reach some of their targets and fail in a number of others.

The Labour Party’s targets for these elections were very clear: a massive vote across the board, winning new majorities in a number of councils and retaining the majorities won in the previous round.

The campaign conducted by Labour resembled that of a general election with Dr Muscat giving a press conference every day and the party machine in full swing.

Wherever the Opposition Leader went he claimed that an abstention would only make the Prime Minister happier. A strong media campaign of mud slinging was also directed at a number of mayors, councillors and candidates.

Has Labour achieved its targets?

Labour achieved a number of its targets and failed in others.

The acquisition of new majorities in St Paul’s Bay, Safi and Qala are definitely targets that were reached as was the strong overall majority.

But this is not the whole picture. Despite the strong showing at the polls, the Labour vote has only increased by a mere 150 votes from the last round. This suggests that, although the Nationalist Party lost more than 11,000 votes, PN voters are not opting for Labour. Their protest vote against the party in government is coming in the form of abstention rather than a switch to Labour.

Holding onto the majority in Mosta was also a failed Labour target. The PN never had a chance of winning these elections and the target that was set was the regaining of the majority in Mosta, which became the party’s battleground. A strong campaign was conducted in the locality as well as on the party’s media.

Despite the poor national result, the PN must be very satisfied with regaining the control of the Mosta council albeit with a handful of votes.

Where did the PN founder?

Losing the majority in St Paul’s Bay and Qala must have been a great disappointment. A post-mortem must study why the majority in these localities was thrown in the bin.

On the other hand, the loss of Safi’s majority was expected. This almost happened five years ago when only two votes had decided the balance in favour of the PN.

The PN also failed to mobilise its voters, especially in its traditional strongholds. Record low turnout was recorded not only nationally but also in St Paul’s Bay (35 per cent) St Julians (37 per cent) and Sliema (43 per cent).

As for Alternattiva Demokratika, despite the satisfaction at the result expressed by the party leadership, the fact remains that this was the umpteenth dismal showing of AD. Twenty years after its birth, the party is still failing to make an impact.

I still cannot understand the parties’ nominations strategies. The two parties are fielding too many candidates in most elections. The PN could have lost Mosta because of this. On the other hand, while Labour nominated 13 candidates for a council in which it elected seven councillors it failed to nominate enough candidates in Żurrieq.

Those like me who followed closely these elections have been making a lot of calculations and comparisons over the past few days. We all look at the numbers from different perspectives.

We have been looking at the same figures but giving different interpretations.

Analysts, however, agree on the most significant number in these elections which is 41. That is the percentage of the electorate staying at home last Saturday. That is the parties’ magic number and their work starts now.

info@schiavone.com.mt

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