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Minister confident Air Malta can be saved as EU raises doubts on reform programme

Air Malta proposals include trimming profitable routes including London, introduction of new fees

Video: Mark Zammit Cordina

(Adds minister's reaction)

The European Commission has expressed doubts over whether proposed 'compensatory measures' by Air Malta are sufficient to justify state aid as part of its restructuring programme.

In a detailed report issued today, the  EU says it has some 'major concerns' about whether the optimistic forecasts on long-term viability are realistic; whether the proposed capacity reduction involves genuine compensatory measures; and whether aid given by the government violates the 'one time last time principle' in view of a capital injection carried out in April 2004.

The report confirms that as a compensatory measure for possible distortion of competition, Air Malta has offered a capacity reduction of 20% including the surrender of certain profitable or potentially profitable routes. The report says that slot pairs that would be surrendered by 2013 at coordinated airports such as London Gatwick, Manchester, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Geneva, Catania, Stuttgart, London Heathrow and Munich. Through the withdrawal or reduced frequency, other airlines would be able to benefit from potentially increased load factors and, or, yields.

In its report the commission says that  the restructuring plan, the duration of which must be as short as possible, must restore the long-term viability of the firm within a reasonable timescale and on the basis of realistic assumptions as to future operating conditions.

The restructuring plan forecasts the profitability by 2016 to be on a similar level as the profitability of major carriers.

COMMISSION DOUBTS LONG-TERM FORECAST

"The Commission has doubts whether these optimistic forecasts are realistic to achieve, especially in view of the following:

The Commission doubts whether the significant impact of the ancillary revenues both in-flight and pre-flight of at least EUR [9 to 11 million] p/a is realistic, especially whether the expected take-up rates reflect the growing price consciousness in consumer behaviour mainly on short range flights. In particular, the revenues through catering and on-board sale seem to be too optimistic.

"The Commission doubts whether the assumed cost reduction through contract management can be achieved since the negotiations are still at a very early stage for some of the contracts. Therefore, Malta is invited to give an update on these negotiations and the expected savings.

"The Commission doubts whether the assumed market growth of 5.9 % is still realistic. The annual growth survey of the Commission of 23 November 2011 shows that the economic recovery has come to a standstill and that low levels of confidence are adversely affecting investment and consumption due to the current sovereign debt crisis and the situation in the financial sector together with a slowdown in the global economy. The impact has been particularly acute in the Euro area. As a result, GDP is likely to stagnate in the coming year and overall growth in the EU is forecast to be as low as 0.6 % for 2012. In contrast to Malta's assumed growth in GDP of 2.2 % in 2012, the latest economic growth figures by Eurostat  forecast a growth in GDP in 2012 of only 1.3 %," the Commission said.

The economic slow down also affects the countries of origin of the foreign passengers flying to Malta, especially from UK (0,7 % growth in 2012) and Italy (0.1 % growth in 2012).

"The Commission doubts whether the assumed yield is still realistic to achieve. In a press release dated 7 December 2011, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) gives a negative outlook for profitability on the European air transport market. Higher passenger taxes and weak home market economies have limited profitability in Europe. European carriers are forecast to generate a collective profit of just USD 1,0 billion, down from the previously forecasted USD 1,4 billion, and an EBIT margin of 1.2 %.

"The Commission doubts whether the assumptions for the base case scenario on inflation are realistic. The Restructuring Plan only includes known price increases such as salaries; otherwise cost inflation is not included. However, e. g. the European Central Bank expects inflation rates for the Euro area of 2,0 % (2012) and 1.9 % (2013)."

The Commission invited third parties to give their view whether the envisaged results at the end of the restructuring process, in comparison to figures of its competitors, ensure long-term viability in the market environment of the air transport sector.

The Commission added that as regards the scenario analysis, Malta has not provided an analysis of the overall impact on the profit and loss situation for both the best and the worst case scenario. Furthermore, the standard deviation analysis is not clear enough and has to be explained in more detail; especially Malta has to demonstrate how and on what basis the standard deviation is calculated. 

COMPENSATORY MEASURES

With regard to compensatory measures (for state aid) the commission said such measures must be taken in order to ensure that the adverse effects on trading conditions are minimized as much as possible. In this regard, closure of loss-making activities which would at any rate be necessary to restore viability would not be considered reduction of capacity or market presence for the purpose of the assessment of the compensatory measures.

"Since the overall capacity reduction of 20%  also contains loss making routes whose closure is necessary to restore viability,"there are serious doubts whether the overall reduction can be regarded as compensatory measures" the commission said.

It noted that Malta proposed to discontinue or reduce capacity on certain routes which were profitable, or have potential for profitability with the right management and commercial attention and investment.

"The total ASK change related to the routes explicitly earmarked as compensatory measures amounts to  14 % to 18 % of the 2010 overall capacity. The net capacity reduction related to these routes — i.e. capacity change related to the routes explicitly earmarked as compensatory measures minus the capacity increase by additional routes and expansion of existing schedules — amounts to ASK which corresponds to 5 % to 7 % of the 2010 capacity."

In contrast, the commission said, Malta offered an overall capacity reduction of 12.5 % to 15.5 % for "profitable" routes plus a capacity reduction of 5.5 % to 7.5 %] for "marginal" routes to be regarded as compensatory measures. These numbers conflict with the ASK figures provided for the routes explicitly earmarked as compensatory measures.

"The Commission invites the Maltese authorities to clarify this incoherence. The Commission notes that for the route Malta–Verona the contribution margin and the load factor are missing although this route should be counted as a compensatory measure.

"The Commission has doubts whether these routes are profitable. All the routes earmarked as compensatory measures have a 2010 contribution margin below the 47 % to 57 % threshold. The contribution margin of some routes is even negative."

The commission noted that Malta argues that, in order to exclude loss-making routes, a positive contribution margin, regardless of passing the [47 % to 57 %] threshold, is sufficient. Even if the Commission followed Malta's approach, the report says, the capacity reduction would amount to only  8 % to 10 % of the 2010 capacity.

"In any case, the Commission has doubts whether this approach is appropriate as it does not ensure the coverage of fixed operating costs and administrative overheads by the retained bundle of routes."

Malta, it added, argues that some routes which are not profitable today have potential for profitability with the right management and commercial attention and investment. Therefore, Malta provided a contribution margin forecast for FY2014. However, some of the routes will still remain below the 36 % to 44 %, the relevant threshold in FY2014. 

The Commission noted that only capacity data until FY2013 had been provided and it invited the Maltese authorities to also submit information on the route network development as of 2014. The capacity reduction carried out until 2013 may not be significantly counterbalanced by future capacity increase.

Beyond the capacity reduction, Air Malta proposes the sale of non-loss making assets as compensatory measures. This includes its subsidiaries Shield Insurance Co. Ltd. (an airline insurance company) and Osprey Insurance Brokers Co. Ltd. (an airline insurance broker).

However, according to  R&R Guidelines, the compensation measures should take place in particular in the market where the firm will have a significant market position after restructuring.

"The market where Air Malta has and will have a significant market position is the Maltese air transport market. This does not apply to the insurance sector. Therefore, there are doubts whether the sale of Shield Insurance Co. Ltd. (an insurance company) and Osprey Insurance Brokers Co. Ltd. (an insurance broker) can be considered as compensatory measures."

NEW AIR MALTA FEES

The Commission said that following the approach of many low-cost carriers, Air Malta would charge fees for ancillary services. These will include:  differentiated service fees of between €10 and €15 to encourage people to book online; additional bag charge fee of between €35 and €45 for any second or subsequent bag carried by passengers; seat reservation fee of between €9 and €11; a loounge access fee of between €9 and €11; and a paid catering service.

MALTA'S LOCATION

The Commission said Malta's peripheral geographical situation causes problems with respect to accessibility to the rest of the EU and as a result the country is extensively dependent on air transport. This is important as in the case of Malta, air travel is the only viable mean of business passenger transport apart from being essential for other vital services, including medical related travel. Against this background, an own contribution of 45.5 % may be appropriate in the present case.

"However, the own contribution must be real, i.e., actual, excluding all future expected profits such as cash flow."

As regards the sale of subsidiaries, the Commission said it is not clear whether the sales will be carried out by an open, transparent and non-discriminatory procedure. The values should have been established by independent evaluation. However, these evaluations have not been provided to the Commission. The Commission invited Malta to submit further information about the envisaged sale procedure and to provide the mentioned evaluation reports. 

ONE TIME, LAST TIME STATE AID

Finally, the, the commission said, state  aid must respect the condition that it is "one time, last time". A company that has received rescue and restructuring aid in the past ten years is not eligible for rescue or restructuring aid.

It noted that in April 2004, before accession to the EU, Malta carried out a capital increase of EUR 57 million. This measure was not considered as rescue and restructuring aid by the Maltese authorities who considered the capital increase to be compatible with the market economy investor principle (MEIP).
The Commission was informed about this measure at the time in the context of pre-accession cooperation. Since the measure was granted before Malta's accession to the EU, it was not necessary for Malta to seek the Commission's approval prior to implementing the capital increase in 2004.

"However, in line with consistent Commission practice, the Commission will take account of restructuring aid granted prior to accession for the application of the "one time, last time" principle in subsequent cases of restructuring aid."

"The transaction in question involved the transfer by the Government of real property (land and buildings) to Air Malta under a long-term (63 years) lease agreement in return for obtaining additional shares in Air Malta. This real estate had been formerly held by Air Malta under rental agreement.

"At that time, the Maltese authorities considered that this capital increase did not constitute State aid because it had been carried out in conformity with the MEIP at market price, that the private shareholding in Air Malta had not been diluted by the capital increase (i.e. the minority shareholders had participated in proportion to their shareholding) and that the transaction was not related to rescue or restructuring Air Malta which was not a firm in difficulties at that time."

The Commission said it was necessary to  establish whether Air Malta received an economic advantage, which it would not have obtained under normal conditions. 

"The Commission considers that the 2004 capital increase might be in conformity with the MEIP, in which case it would not constitute State aid and should not be taken into account for the application of the "one time, last time" rule. It invites the Maltese authorities and third parties to provide comments." 

RESTRUCTURING PLAN'S COST

The total cost of the restructuring plan is €238 million, of which €66.2m will come from the sale of land (which is already in process); between €9m and €12m from the sale of subsidiaries; between €9m and €12m from the sale of engines; between €20m and €25m in bank loans and €130m in government equity - including the €52m given to the airline last year.

MINISTER'S REACTION

In his first reaction to the report, Finance Minister Tonio Fenech said he was confident that with the new management in place, the restructuring plan and the negotiations undertaken with the unions and financial institutions, government will be given the go-ahead to pump in money and save the airline.

When asked about the Commission's concern that the restructuring plan's targets were too optimistic, Mr Fenech said that the first six months of the current financial year (which ends in March) showed that the turnaround had started.

"This is a sign that a complete turnaround is possible," he said.

The minister said that the publication of this report was an important and normal step in this process and he expects the Commission would complete its evaluation by May or June if the number of submissions is reasonable.

Mr Fenech was speaking in a video conference from Brussels after a marathon meeting of Eurozone finance ministers yesterday that was followed by  another meeting of EU finance ministers this morning.

See full report in pdf below

Attached files

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Rocco Camilleri

Feb 22nd, 08:36

Veru kollu li qed tghid Sur Cilia. Mur gieb lil missierijietna u lil Mintoff li ghadu haj x'kienu jaghmlu dawn. Veru irid ikollok wiccek joqghodlok ghal kollox biex thalli dan kollu ghaddej qiesu ma' qed jigri xejn. Fejn hi 'Malta l-ewwel u Qabel Kollox ? Taf x'sar illum 'Il-BUT L-EWWELu QABEL KOLLOX' ta' l-irjus il-kbar. Tghid mhux qed johorgu l-gharaq ta' gbienhom ghallina u l-pajjiz. Iktar safar fil-vojt milli xoghol ghal pajjiz ghamlu dawn fl-ahhar 24 sena, kif trid ma' jehilbuhiex lil AIR MALTA !!!!! imbad biex taxxaqa igiebulna xi CEO barrani imhallas bil-miljuni ghax qallulna li ahna 'Cwiec' . Il-Hutu minn rasha tinten u mhux ghax 'cwiec' u mhux, ghax allura Cucc kulhadd qed jirrizulta f'kull tmexxija. Mela sew l-ewwel tghidx kemm fahhruhom lin-nies Maltin li bnew il-vapuri li ghadhom jahdmu sa' llum imbaghad ghajruhom u tefawhom il-barra, u min kien responsabbli ta' Tender fallut tal-'Fairmont' jahrab u qiesu ma' gara xejn . Nahseb li spicca fil-Qamar biex ghadhom ma' sabuhx.

Godfrey Grima

Feb 21st, 19:44

RuinAir gets around €11m in subsidies and discounts here in Malta. I am told that throughout the EU they get around €800m! Air Malta gets Zilch.

Patrick Zammit

Feb 21st, 20:09

Bailing out other countries also goes against EU rules (Maastricht Treaty), yet we are giving away hundreds of millions of Euro, money which probably, we will never see again.

Carmel Farrugia

Feb 21st, 18:12

Mr Sciberras, well said. It was not only Swiss Air that went that way but also Sabena and Alitalia.

Joseph Calleja

Feb 21st, 16:30

" Why not let Greece fail then ?" Maybe they should, because soon as this bail out money is spent they will definitely come back for more. It has happened before and it will happen again. They can always depend on the EU to bail them out. Air Malta started out with a 20,000,000M million bail out, all of a sudden it is becoming 238,000,000M million euro bail out. Where it stops nobody knows?

Carmel Farrugia

Feb 21st, 18:14

Letting Air Malta go bankrupt does not mean remaning without a national airline. Alitalia, Sabena and Swiss Air went bankrupt and from their ashes there rose new strong airlines without the shakles of the old work practices, old debt etc.

m. borg (slm)

Feb 21st, 15:45

As far as I know Airfrance which operates together with KLM (Holland) have gobbled up Alitalia. If Alitalia is still losing money I am sure that AF-KLM would simply unload the loser.

Adrian Attard

Feb 21st, 16:30

Dear Godfrey,

The carriers you mentioned are established in countries that have clout in the EU. Unfortunately, Malta does not have. Can I say more? Damned the day Malta joined the Eu.

Joseph Calleja

Feb 21st, 16:11

It takes more than a lot of good service to be able to fly an airline. You cannot neglect an airline like Air Malta for 6 years or so and then start pointing fingers. This government was aware of all this but neglected to act in time. Incompetent management and a government who was asleep at the wheel. The government is the owner of Air Malta and should have acted on the first sign of trouble, not wait until it was too late..

Joseph Calleja

Feb 21st, 16:21

The GWU was very aware of the deal made with the employees, because they were part of the bargaining parties. What is in it for the GWU? The GWU does not give up that easy without a motive. If I happened to be one of those fortunate employees to get all that retirement money, I too would grab the money and run. Was it mentioned anywhere that those same retired employees who accepted about e50,000 plus a new job still carry with them free flying benefits for life? It wasn't such a bad deal after all, and the TAX PAYER pays for it all.

Adrian Attard

Feb 21st, 14:54

Absolutely NO. If the company is losing money, it should wund down once and forever. Don't worry - we will not remain isolated on this rock - other carriers will follow in - the bridge with mainland Europe will still remain. After all, the Maltese are not being priviledged by using Air Malta.

m. borg (slm)

Feb 21st, 15:12

Lucienne it is not airmalta wasting our money but the pn government. Until recently airmalta was doiung fine until blue eyed boys, cwiec nazzjonalisti maltin were put at the helm.

Not really cwiec in fact.

Joseph Vassallo, (Bugibba)

Feb 21st, 15:07

Well, come on then! If you want our support you have to show some respect for the public not treat it as ignorant.

m. borg (slm)

Feb 21st, 15:15

Mr Farrugia with Fairmount debackle Tonio Fenech forked out more money in one year than the malta drydocks did in 10 years.

Apparently nationalists do not have an idea how their party works,. First cripple the company, then subsidize it till the people start grumbling then shut it down and turn it over ot friendly private companies and the goats will then start clapping.

Carmel Farrugia

Feb 21st, 18:07

Mr Borg, Fairmount or no Fairmount 50% of the National Debit has been taken up by the Malta Drydocks and the Marsa Shipbuilding. Fairmount or no Fairmount the Malta Drydocks was unsustainbale. As regards to Air Malta it too is unsustainable. Once the subsidies to Air Malta stopped by the removal of the monopoly it had through the introduciton of air liberalisation then also Air Malta is unsustainable. Its work practices are antiquated and uncompetitive for the year 2012, It will have to close down this year, the next or the next. The quicker the better so a new airline can be born from its ashes. The government must have the courage to do so. If not the PN government then it will be the a PL government to do so.

Joseph Vassallo, (Bugibba)

Feb 21st, 15:32

In truth j brincat, there is an ocean of difference between saying "Mhux ser nahtar xi cuc malti" and "Mhux ser nahtar xi cuc GHAX malti".

The first means that the minister would not install a Maltese CEO because all the Maltese are incompetent (cwiec).

The second means that the minister would not install an incompetent CEO, just because he happens to be Maltese.

I was not there so I don't know which of the two, the minister said.

BUT... forget your party-piece and 'GonziPN' for a moment...

Instead, why don't you labour the point that yesterday Peter Davies categorically stated in this website, that Airmalta's slots (very expensive and sought-after assets) are not for sale? Today the EU commission is reported to be saying the opposite.

There could be conflicting interests and I want reassurance that there aren't any. We all know that inside-information influences major deals, in most cases adversely against the vendor and shareholders.

D. A . Agius

Feb 21st, 14:29

Probably the EU actually believes what the Opposition rather than government or Air Malta is saying.. .

Which might be wrong now, but right in the future.

What I would be more worried about is the sale of non-loss making routes and interests. Excuse, me, but why sell or stop interests which give you an income? Isn't it like shooting yourself in the foot?

joe vella

Feb 21st, 13:48

the pilfering was not only from duty free etc
anything that went into the bonds and had an attractive or resale value to it was up for grabs
ask the importers (especially the ones involved with newsprints, books and clothes) - there were innumerable complaints and exposures but the matter was never tackled seriously by the people who ought to have acted

m. borg (slm)

Feb 21st, 15:20

The biggest two money drainers was Joe N Tabone's buying of the Avro Jets that cost the company million and millions of Euros some of these planes are still rotting on some british runway somewhere in UK. The second was the Med avia project which was unprofitable and money wasting.

N Zahra

Feb 21st, 13:15

Flying is now a rules-based industry. The treatment you received would be the same under any carrier. Just get used to it. Don't make mistakes. (I've made several on different carriers and had to pay for them too...)

TuffyDavies Davidson

Feb 21st, 14:49

As a foreign visiter & a frequent flyer to Malta i often used to book with AM, but as you say they are quite expensive and just like you i find their customer care service and also trying to get any refunds back from them & i must also say most of the time mistakes are done also from their side, however as you say getting a refund from them(Typical Maltese) is just like trying to draw blood out of a stone, it impossible, needless to say i too decided finally not to book with them anymore and now happily making use of other carriers much - much cheaper for the same service, must admit not as good a service but then again i am still gaining fares wise. Verdict AirMalta to me is now a dow dow dead as a door nail.

Joseph Vassallo, (Bugibba)

Feb 21st, 15:04

It just cost my niece nearly €1,000 to urgently fly to London because Airmalta refused to credit her with her surrendered (unused) return booking of a flight she thought she did not need but subsequently needed anyway. They made her pay again for another ticket. Does that make sense to anyone?

This is not what can be called 'customer care' and there is no mitigation, especially in low season and when a chosen few are still benefiting from free or subsidised travel.

Last summer, they tried to pull the same trick on another niece of mine and on her family but had to redeem the situation to pre-empt the social websites going viral against Airmalta. This had already started and next, it would have been the UK papers.

Because the family were marginally late arriving at the airport (because of a fatal accident and motorway closure that Airmalta was kept informed about) Airmalta wrongly sold or allocated (to whom?) their seats before check-in closure even though the party had completed an online check-in. "Viva chi regna" or "looking after their own", depending on who was allocated the outgoing seats, I suppose. But that cost my niece €1,000 for one-way tickets with a low-cost airline.

Next, they wanted the party to pay another €1,500 for their already-paid-for return seats, claiming that because the outgoing journey had been 'missed', the return seats were assumed to have been 'surrendered' even though the party were at the airport in time, arguing to be allowed on board.

With the airline's left hand not knowing what the right hand was doing, they wanted to resell the return flights as well, and my niece spent most of her holiday successfully-arguing her issue with them.

How's that for customer care? Or is it 'opportunism'?

Fabien Sant Fournier

Feb 21st, 15:32

So is the hotel industry, which I am an operator of, but when I have had clients in a similar situation I have waived cancellation/change fees. As a result not only has this created repeat business but these same clients have gone on to give us raving reviews due to our great flexibility and service.

Compare this to the disgruntled ex-client Air Malta have now created...

m. borg (slm)

Feb 21st, 15:42

Makes you wonder if this shoddiness by customer care is being made on purpose. To have a date change due to an emergency I was charged €500+ which together with the previous cost a Malta-AMS-Malta flight cost me over €800 . A sum that would have seen me going from UK to New York plus accomodation and some spending money.

N Zahra

Feb 21st, 13:18

It looks intentional to me - a stalling tactic. My guess that it's in the hope that they can kick the can down the road past the election date next year.

Adrian Attard

Feb 21st, 13:40

You are spot on Mr. Vella. The fleet of foreign executives hired by this Governement happen to be all acquaintances of Mr Peter Davies. All of them have preteneded to be all aviation experts including Mr Davies himself but are only a bunch of idiots who do not understand nothing about the airline industry. Two things they know for sure: a) how to get paid and the rate at which are being paid and b) how to complete the bankruptcy of our national airline.

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