Gonzi rallies his troops

Lawrence Gonzi’s decision to call a Nationalist Party leadership election by a secret ballot is a bold move considering the un­certainty caused by rebel MP Franco Debono’s abstention in a parliamentary vote of no confidence moved by the opposition.

The Prime Minister has certainly put up a spirited fight in defence of his government’s policies- Anthony Manduca

It looks increasingly likely that there will be no other candidate besides Gonzi in this contestand that he will receive a massive endorsement by NationalistParty councillors, thus exerting pressure on Debono to toe the party line and remain loyal to his parliamentary group.

Whether Debono will fall into line is anybody’s guess but the Prime Minister has certainly put up a spirited fight in defence of his government’s policies and in attacking the opposition’s lack of concrete policies.

Addressing the party’s general council last Sunday he gave an impassioned speech which rallied the party faithful. Gonzi strongly defended the government’s track record and attacked Labour as not being fit to govern.

Whether uniting the party behind Gonzi will encourage ordinary voters to remain loyal to the Nationalist Party is another matter, however.

For example, in June 1995, British Prime Minister John Major, tired of facing rebellions by his eurosceptic backbenchers, an­nounced he was stepping down as Conservative Party leader and submitting himself as a candidate for the party leadership. He was challenged by John Redwood, who resigned as Welsh Secretary to contest the election, and won by 218 votes to 89 votes.

Although it was a comfortable victory for Major, his Conservative Party went on to lose the 1997 election to Labour by a landslide. The Conservative in-fighting had considerably damaged the Major government and the 1995 re-election of Major as party leader did nothing to stop the Labour Party landslide two years later.

It is clear that the electorate, whether in the UK or Malta, does not like a divided party in government. In Malta in 1998, the fighting between Dom Mintoff and Alfred Sant contributed greatly to Labour’s landslide defeat.

I believe that whatever the outcome of the Nationalists’ leadership contest the whole Franco Debono episode has damaged the party’s chances of winning the next general election.

However, a lot will still depend on how Debono behaves after the party election, whether he can be made to feel part of the PN once again and the margin of Gonzi’s victory when he is re-elected party leader.

I am still of the opinion that the government will not remain in office until the end of its termnext year. Of course, anything is possible and it could well be that Debono will vote with the government on every occasion from now on, but somehow I get the feeling that this will not be the case.

The fact is that this rebel MP has been scathing in his criticism of many of the government’s policies, very often speaking like an opposition MP and not a government backbencher offering constructive criticism. For him to suddenly act as if everything is fine would be a strange development.

The most plausible scenario remains, in my opinion, that an election will be held this year, either in May-June or in October.

It will be a very closely fought election, with the Nationalists stressing their track record in major policy areas such as the economy, jobs, foreign policy, health and education and Labour campaigning on the need for a change – as well as highlighting the government’s mistakes – after so many years of Nationalist governments.

We can expect a strong battle by the Nationalists, who are excellent at electoral campaigns – and at winning elections – and a strong fight by Gonzi who, asevi­denc­ed by his speech last Sunday, still has the determinationand fighting spirit needed in order to win.

It is clear, however, that history is not on the Nationalists’ side. The EU and Alfred Sant are out of the equation, the PN has been in government since 1987 except for 22 months between 1996 and 1998, the 2008 election was won by only 1,500 votes, a number of mistakes have been committed over the last four years and the increased water and electricity bills will definitely cost the Nationalists votes.

The Nationalists can only win if they convince enough floating voters that Labour has no concrete policies and that the economy – especially job creation – as well as areas such as health, education and foreign and EU policy will suffer if there was a change in government.

Labour will certainly be put under pressure during an election campaign to reveal its policies in specific terms. Joseph Muscat is yet to give a major economic, social or foreign policy speech but he will have to do just that once an election is announced.

On the other hand, Muscat has been stressing continuity as well as the need for a new direction for the country. He has been on the whole careful in his choice of words – although I believe he was wrong to compare the aftermath of the 1981 election with today’s situation – and has been portraying himself as a moderate social democrat who intends to be business-friendly if elected to office.

Also, one must not underestimate the importance to the electorate of Muscat being a family man and a practising Catholic – we haven’t seen this in a Labour leader for decades, and yes, such things do make a difference in Maltese elections.

Perhaps a massive endorsement of Gonzi by PN councillors later on this month will convince Franco Debono to be loyal to his government and to put an end to this uncertainty which we can ill-afford.

There is a strong chance that it will not, which means that the only option left for the government will be an early election.

Fr Peter's column is not appearing this week.