Answering burning questions

So, what happens next? Is it to be, or not to be? These have been the two hot questions doing the rounds since the confidence vote taken at high noon on Thursday. The answers seem to rest with two men. Actually, I feel, it is all in the hands of one of them: the Prime Minister.

He is simultaneously at the helm, and at the receiving end, the butt of Franco Debono’s repeated expression of lack of confidence. That lack of confidence was the kernel of Dr Debono’s speech on Wednesday. He said that, on the divorce issue alone, Lawrence Gonzi should have resigned.

Closer to present times Dr Debono feels that the Prime Minister should have sacked ministers who did not perform, instead of cosseting and promoting them. Much will depend upon how much that is to heart with the Nationalist backbench MP, who feels he is a victim of political circumstance, rather than a rebel.

If not a rebel, he is certainly a catalyst for change. He has been promoting a review of various aspects of legislation which, if enacted, would strengthen demo­cracy. He has achieved one objective, to see home affairs separated from justice. There were other nods towards him, but not where it mattered most, in terms of the accountability of ministers who, he insists, have not been performing.

Amidst all that, Dr Debono chose not to be responsible for the government’s forced collapse. While loyal to his sustained criticism, which he did not withdraw, he abstained on the opposition’s no-confidence motion ­ – one which constitutional expert Austin Bencini felt the Opposition was obliged to put forward.

By abstaining, Dr Debono denied the PM the right to claim majority support. The casting vote of the Speaker, a non-elected Member of the House of Representatives, did not yield that right. Such a right, as Dr Gonzi knows as much as anybody else, comes only from the voting backing of the elected majority of the House.

In fact, speaking after the tied vote on Thursday, the Prime Minister was loyal to himself, and to political reality. Having embarked on a flight of escapism wrapped in the global situation in which we are very minor players, he said he could not proceed as if it was business as usual. Departing from his role as PM he said action would be taken within his Nationalist Party to address the issue.

Such action can no longer mean threats or a disciplinary move against Dr Debono. That was tried, and failed. It probably means that steps will be taken to take into account as much as possible Dr Debono’s proposals to strengthen accountability and democracy.

Whether Dr Debono will be satisfied remains to be seen. Even if he seems to be, he will probably be an uneasy ally, if that. If ministerial heads do not roll, his stand, which will cost him his political future, would have been in vain.

It will all be left to Dr Gonzi to decide how to move forward. He talks as a party leader would, saying a general election now, amidst turbulent economic times, would be harmful. But he knows that the eurozone economic scenario will be bad beyond the natural life of this government. He cannot hide behind that excuse.

My reading is that he will not. Dr Gonzi will try to gain some weeks, months even, before asking the President to dissolve Parliament and call a general election. He will wait, as the PN leader, to gain time for Austin Gatt to refurbish the PN political machinery.

He will not wait indefinitely. He knows that the unease in his parliamentary ranks is not restricted to raucous Franco Debono. At least four other MPs are sharply critical, though continuing to vote with the government.

I believe that, before long, Dr Gonzi’s self-esteem, his sense of dignity, will make him go for a general election. Unless, that is, Dr Debono professes an end to what has moved him into a principled stance and declares blind loyalty to his leader, and Dr Gonzi believes him.

Before very long, time will tell.