Updated 12.35 p.m.
Franco Debono this afternoon hinted that he may have softened his position in his dispute with the Nationalist Party, mentioning, for the first time, the possibility that he may abstain in this Thursday's no confidence vote.
He also said that he 'may try' to attend the PN parliamentary group meeting, currently in progress.
Various observers over the past few days had spoken of a scenario where Dr Debono would not vote, meaning that there would be equal votes in favour and against the Opposition's no confidence motion.
Dr Debono would not deny this possibility when contacted today.
"That is a possibility" he said, but he insisted that the debate in parliament had to take place.
He said he would still not be supporting the government but added: "This could save the government, but with the motion neither being approved nor rejected, the ball would then be in the prime minister's court to decide a way forward," he said.
"The prime minister would then have greater responsibility, and a more difficult decision to decide the way forward."
Dr Debono yesterday had an inconclusive meeting with Prime Minister Gonzi, and contacts are thought to have continued today. The no confidence debate starts this evening.
Earlier today, The Times reported that House Speaker Michael Frendo will have no casting vote in next Thursday’s crucial parliamentary vote.
Furthermore, his vote would not be needed should Dr Debono take half a step back from his declared position of voting against the government and decide to abstain, since the vote of no confidence would be unsuccessful anyway.
This is because a vote of no confidence requires the backing of an absolute majority of members of Parliament if it is to pass. Given that there are 69 MPs, this means that a vote of no confidence requires at least 35 votes to succeed.
Constitutional law expert Dr Austin Bencini said that if Dr Debono makes good on his threat to vote with the Opposition in favour of a vote of no confidence, then Opposition Leader Joseph Muscat will have reached the 35-vote threshold necessary for the motion to pass.
Should, he however, decide to abstain, then the Opposition will only have 34 votes in favour of the motion – one short of the crucial house majority it needs. Article 76 (5) (a) of the Maltese Constitution is clear on this matter, stating that the President may dissolve Parliament “if the House of Representatives passes a resolution, supported by the votes of a majority of all the members thereof, that it has no confidence in the Government, and the Prime Minister does not within three days either resign from his office or advise a dissolution.”
Since a no-confidence motion requires a majority of all MPs, rather than a simple majority of those voting, the 35-vote threshold holds irrespective of the number of MPs who abstain – or fail to attend Parliament – during next Thursday’s vote.
In other words, Dr Muscat must ensure that every member of his parliamentary group, as well as one Nationalist MP, be it Dr Debono or anyone else, attends Parliament and supports the Opposition’s motion. Anything else will result in the motion failing.
The big debate
What: The debate in Parliament this week will centre on a motion of no confidence in the government, signed by PL deputy leader and MP Anġlu Farrugia as well as PL whip Joe Mizzi. The motion will require 35 votes if it is to pass. There are 34 Labour MPs.
When: The debate starts this evening at 6 and will last until 9. It will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday evening for three hours at a time. There will be a final round of speakers on Thursday morning, before a vote is taken at noon. The PN parliamentary group will have 10 hours of debating time with the Opposition limiting itself to 90 minutes.
Who: Opposition Leader Joseph Muscat will open and close the debate. It is still not known which Nationalist MPs will speak, with PN whip David Agius saying yesterday that the list – and order – of speakers had yet to be finalised. It remains to be seen whether the debate’s catalyst, government MP Franco Debono, will speak. Each speaker will be allotted a maximum of one hour.
And then? If the Opposition musters the 35 votes necessary for the motion to pass, the Prime Minister will have up to three days to advise the President to dissolve Parliament and call a snap election. Otherwise, the government can technically remain in power till the end of its legislature in 15 months’ time.
Election? An election must be held between 33 days and three months after the dissolution of Parliament. In practice, this means that, if next Thursday’s motion passes, an election may be held any day between March 2 and April 29.