Mitt Romney has become the first non-incumbent Republican presidential candidate to win both the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, making him the favourite to challenge Barack Obama in November’s election. The moderate Republican, who is the preferred choice of the party establishment, is seen by most observers as the only candidate capable of defeating Obama.

Moderate Republican Mitt Romney is seen by most observers as the only candidate capable of defeating Obama- Anthony Manduca

These two contests, which start the race for the presidential nomination, carry immense weight, even though they are held in small states, simply because they are the first in line in a six-month-long election.

The media coverage of the Iowa and New Hampshire elections is extensive, candidates campaign there long before the contests begin, and millions of dollars are spent on advertising.

Relatively unknown contenders can be thrown into the national spotlight as a result of a good performance in either of these two states – such as Rick Santorum, who came second in Iowa, or John Huntsman, who came third in New Hampshire after coming last in Iowa, while others can drop out after a poor result – such as Michele Bachmann, who got only five per cent of the vote in Iowa.

While Romney’s victory in these two states is good news for the former Massachusetts governor, the split in the vote – along ideological lines – among the various candidates is not particularly encouraging for the Republican Party.

True, in 2008 the Democratic Party was split down the middle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and the nomination was only won by Obama after a long six-month race in June. However, that contest was personal, not ideological, which is why most Democrats had no problem voting for Obama in the presidential election.

The results from Iowa and New Hampshire, however, point to three main factions within the Republican Party: mainstream moderates, social conservatives (Christian evangelicals) and libertarians (champions of small government).

The latter two groups are heavily influenced by the Tea Party, a populist conservative and libertarian movement which has gained considerable influence within the Republican Party. Whoever wins the Republican nomination will have to unite the party and get the support of all its factions, otherwise the party will be defeated in November.

In Iowa, Romney received only 25 per cent of the vote, just eight votes more than Christian evangelical Rick Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania.

In third place was libertarian Ron Paul, a congressman from Texas, who received 21 per cent of the vote and who is often considered the father of the Tea Party movement.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas governor Rick Perry, both conservatives, came fourth and fifth respectively, with 13 per cent and 10 per cent of the vote.

In New Hampshire, where Republicans are less conservative than in Iowa, Romney did better, receiving 39 per cent of the vote, an important result for him. Ron Paul came second with 23 per cent, followed by former Utah governor Huntsman, a moderate like Romney, who received 17 per cent.

Huntsman served as President Obama’s Ambassador to China for two years is therefore not popular among Republican conservatives. Gingrich and Santorum each got 9.4 per cent of the vote and have vowed to continue in the race, while Rick Perry, who chose not to campaign in New Hampshire, received only 0.7 per cent.

Romney’s real test, however, will come on Saturday in the crucial South Carolina primary, which is expected to be very hotly contested. A victory for Romney in South Carolina, where Christian conservatives dominate the Republican Party, will almost guarantee him the nomination.

Since 1980, South Carolina’s voters have correctly chosen the eventual Republican nominee, so whoever wins this primary will receive a massive boost to his campaign. We can also expect some of the candidates who perform poorly in South Carolina to withdraw from the race.

Romney heads to South Carolina with a huge advantage over his rival candidates – twin victories in Iowa and New Hampshire – but his challengers have promised an all-out assault on him where they will question his conservative credentials in a very conservative state where sympathies for the Tea Party movement run high.

The fact that Romney is a former governor of Massachusetts – the epitome of a Yankee – could work against him in this southern state, as could his Mormon faith, which is viewed with some suspicion by evangelical Christians.

In South Carolina we can also expect a ferocious advertising campaign against Romney from Gingrich, himself a southerner, whose campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire was dented by an onslaught of negative television advertising from a pro-Romney political group.

Up until mid-December, Gingrich was leading in the opinion polls, but as Romney’s advertising campaign intensified, Gingrich’s lead evaporated. Gingrich will now be hoping to get his revenge on Romney in this southern state.

However, the fact that the conservative vote is split among Gingrich, Perry and Santorum, and to a lesser extent Ron Paul, is good news for Romney, who only needs to get a relative majority of votes to win the state.

Perry and Gingrich, both conservative southerners, cannot afford to do badly in this southern state. Neither can Santorum, the champion of the Christian right.

The next primary after South Carolina is in Florida, on January 31. This is a large state and millions of dollars will have to be spent on advertising.

Those candidates who perform poorly in South Carolina are therefore unlikely to be able to raise enough money to contest in Florida, which means the number of contenders will decline considerably by the time a vote is held in the Sunshine State.

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