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PN voters not keen on early election...

With Malta possibly going to the polls early, Mark Micallef and Herman Grech analyse the first election survey of The Sunday Times.

With opinion polls clearly in Labour’s favour it is no surprise that only 13.1 per cent of Nationalist supporters are clamouring for an early election. Just 7.1 per cent of Labour-leaning respondents want Lawrence Gonzi’s government to serve the entire legislature.

A total of 45 per cent of those voting for the first time want an election at once, with 41.3 willing to wait until next year to cast their vote. The majority of those who said they did not know who to vote for would prefer the government to run its course.

A breakdown of respondents shows that Labour is strongest among those aged 25 to 34 and people aged 45 to 61. Among respondents aged 18 to 24 and over 62, the parties are almost tied.

Overall, no overwhelming election issue emerged among respondents and only six per cent identified economic or political stability as the most pressing concern that would dictate how they vote in an election.

Similarly, while nine per cent identified jobs and work as a key electoral issue only 4.1 per cent felt the same way about the economy, in spite of the eurozone crisis.

Of those for whom jobs could determine their vote, the lion’s share, 18.8 per cent, are aged 18 to 24.

Again, however, the number of people who chose not to reply to this question or said they did not have an opinion is relatively high, at 20 per cent, which may indicate that the parties still have everything to fight for.

PN voters swing to Muscat

Just over seven per cent of respondents who said they voted for the Nationalists in 2008 now claim they have more faith in Joseph Muscat than Lawrence Gonzi.

The two are neck and neck but the Labour leader is enjoying a significant swing in his direction, even though 20 per cent of respondents said they do not trust either.

In raw percentage points, Dr Gonzi has the lead, enjoying the trust of 34.6 per cent of respondents, over Dr Muscat’s 32.3 per cent. However, 7.3 per cent of those who said they voted PN in 2008 declared they had more faith in Dr Muscat, as opposed to 1.6 per cent who made the opposite migration to Dr Gonzi.

That means a swing of 5.7 per cent, which assumes particular significance because it is almost identical to a trend seen in people’s general voting intentions.

Over six per cent of those who say they will support Labour if an election were held tomorrow had voted PN in the 2008 general election. Only 0.8 per cent made the opposite migration to the Nationalist Party after voting Labour in 2008. Again, this translates into a swing of 5.8 per cent in favour of Labour.

The raw percentages put Labour (29.5 per cent) with a 4.3 per cent lead on PN (25.2 per cent). However, 35.7 per cent of respondents either refused to declare their voting intentions or said they had no opinion, as is normal with all political surveys carried out in Malta.

If these are excluded from the analysis and the swing factored in, the result gives Labour 52.1 per cent and the PN 46.9 per cent. Alternattiva Demokratika, which in the 2008 election got 1.3 per cent of the vote, remains more or less at the same level with one per cent.

The swing trend is more significant and indicative than the lead that Labour may enjoy in the survey because of the large number of respondents who are unwilling to declare their vote (15.4 per cent) or who are still undecided (20.3 per cent).

Moreover, when people were asked how they voted in the last general election, 39.5 per cent said they voted PN and only 27.4 per cent Labour – a far cry from the photo finish result seen in 2008: 49.3 per cent for PN and 48.7 per cent for Labour.

Given that the sample was selected randomly, this indicates that Labour-leaning respondents were less likely than their Nationalist counterparts to state their opinion in the survey, an important factor that needs to be considered in the analysis.

If election were held tomorrow how would people cast votes?If election were held tomorrow how would people cast votes?

Gonzi’s big call

Less than a third of the electorate agree with Dr Debono’s call on Dr Gonzi to resign, with the Prime Minister enjoying most support from those in the 18 to 24 age bracket and graduates.

Dr Gonzi still holds maximum support among Nationalist supporters with 94.1 per cent saying he should remain at the helm. On the other hand, nearly 70 per cent of PL supporters want him to go.

The Prime Minister also commands support from those who said they will not vote or refused to give their political preferences and those who were not eligible to vote in the 2008 general election.

The Debono conundrum

Nearly half of all respondents believe Franco Debono acted the way he did for his own personal interests, the majority of these being in the 25 to 34 age bracket.

The backbencher has failed to convince the party faithful about his intentions with a mere 4.8 per cent believing he is acting in the national interest. Equally interesting are the nearly 20 per cent Labourites who think his actions are driven by his personal interests. A third of respondents agree with his declared intentions.

The MP is not very popular with those who said they will not vote, are undecided or refused to say how they will vote. He only enjoys the support of 30 per cent of these respondents.

Forty-two per cent believe the lawyer from Għaxaq should resign from Parliament, as opposed to 37.7 per cent who believe he had acted correctly. The vast majority of those who want to see Dr Debono give up his seat have a tertiary level of education.

Nationalist supporters are clearly in line with the party’s declaration he should quit (89.3 per cent) as opposed to the 9.5 per cent Labour supporters who think he should go.

What has been the government’s biggest mistake?

22.6% - Ministers’ honoraria increase
9.5% - Public transport reform
6.1% - Energy tariffs
4.5% - High cost of living
3.7% - Doesn’t listen to the people

What has been the government’s biggest success?

9.5% - High level of education
6.3% - Joining the EU
6.1% - The way it handled economy through the crisis
5.2% - Jobs/stability
4.6% - Financial stability

Do you think Franco Debono acted correctly or should he resign?


Acted correctly Should resign Don’t know

37.9% 42.4.% 18.2%

PN voters PL voters
Acted correctly 1.6% 78.2%
Should resign 89.3% 9.5%

 

 

 

 

 

Which is the most pressing issue that will dictate the way you vote?

9.1% - Jobs
6.8% - Country needs a change of government
6% - Stability
5.6% - Cost of living
5.4% - Continuity of progress

If an election were held tomorrow who would you vote for?If an election were held tomorrow who would you vote for?

If pro-PL swing is factored in

PL - 52.1%
PN - 46.9%
AD - 1%

Do you think Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi should resign?


Yes No Don’t Know

29.1% 55.1.% 14.8%

PN voters PL voters
Yes 3.2% 66.9%
No 94.1% 20.5%

 

 

 

 

 

When should the Prime Minister call the election?


At once End of term Don’t know

42.7% 41.7% 14.6%

PN voters PL voters
At once 13.1% 83.8%
End of term 78.2% 7.1%
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James Tyrrell

Jan 16th, 13:55

So you are voting AD then?

Deo Catania

Jan 16th, 15:15

hafna paroli vojt, aqbad u ghid li ha tivvota PN.

mark borg

Jan 16th, 21:57

lanqas haqq kemm hlejt hin tikteb ....ghamel li trid forsi ghax hadd ma saqsiek anyway....probabli int wiehed min dawk geddumek fix xghejr !

Christina Pace

Jan 16th, 09:51

Totally agree! The high level of ignorance shown by so many comments here and on facebook, in content and language alike is atrocious. With a base of bad spelling to bad grammer and punctuation in both Maltese and English, seasoned with an abundant lack of general knowledge and common sense, topped with an overwhelming aroma of misinformation, indeed the Maltese level of education is nothing but a dish to be avoided if one does not want a headache. How is the younger generation expected to be any better if this is the food their brains are getting in their formative years.

Mark Spiteri

Jan 16th, 08:55

and what makes you think Joseph Muscat won't do the same that is appease Europe at all cost...

Mr C Camilleri

Jan 16th, 09:49

Naqbel mieghek u nispera mieghek Mr Gauci. Pero f'dan il-pajjiz sfortunatament hawn nies li ghadhom jahsbu fit-80's u ghax il-PN gabilna l-Mars u Snickers u ghixna fuq ir-rubini ghal-20 sena ... u hafna bla bla bla li llum il-gurnata tilef dak kollu li ghandu x'jaqsam mar-raguni.

Apparti minn hekk jattakkaw lil Joseph Muscat li ma jafx imexxi daqs li kieku dan il-bniedem ghamel xi 5 snin fil-gvern u kisser pajjiz. Sa fejn naf jien ghadu qatt ma kien Prim Ministru. Forsi ghanda xi profeti li diga raw il-futur jew xi qatta nazzjonalisti li ghandhom hafna favuri x'jitilfu ????

A. MICALLEF

Jan 16th, 07:56

Inti bi serjeta ??? Amministrazzjoni tal-fondi publici trid tfisser perezempju il-hela ta miljuni ta
liri fi-GOGM, jew fi BRAND Malta jew fil-kiri u xiri tal-bini minnghand il-bazuzli waqt li l-propjeta
tal-vern hija mitluqa uf vojta, bhal bini ta St.Lukes. Ghalfejn l-uffcini tal-VAT jinsabu B.Kara u mhux
fxi bini vojt tal-Gvern ??? Ghalfejn il-Mita ma marritx St. Lukes ?? Dawn huma nitfa mill lista twila.
Min jizbalja jhallas ?? Din veru tal-biki u veru trid ticcajta Matthew Tanti. Tista tghidilna min hallas
l-izball ta LM200 MILJUN wara ix-xirI ta l-Avro liners u l-involviment fl-Azzura Air mill AirMalta ???
Tista tghdilna min ser jhallas l-izbalji tal-bordijiet tal-Mepa li harrgu permessi llegali u saret
irvina lil-ambjent Malti ??? Tista Matthew Tanti l-involviment tal-JS list fil-politika Maltija ??
Li hu ZGUR , li tghid xi tghid Matthew Tanti GONZIPN mhux fdat aktar MINN NAZZJONILISTI STESS.

Paul Giordimaina

Jan 16th, 08:52

Kemm taf igiba qrib il likk sur tanti.

Elaine Compagno

Jan 16th, 09:26

A. Micallef .. tsk tsk!

Matthew Tanti: "Fi ftit kliem Malta jixirqilha gvern l-OPPOST ta’ GonziPN!"


kemm nitgerfxu meta tishnilna rasna.

Christina Pace

Jan 16th, 10:06

Kieku A Micallef jaf jaqra sew kien jinduna li qed imeri lil Matthew Tanti waqt li dawn qed ipoggu l-istess argument li GonziPN m'ghadux tajjeb gha-Malta.

Robert Attard

Jan 16th, 20:51

@ Mr. A.Micallef. You really perplexed me! You are on the same wavelength of Mr. Matthew Tanti and you dont know it. While at the polls, may sure that you submit your vote according to your intentions.

A. MICALLEF

Jan 17th, 13:09

Robert Attard - Forsi ghaliex inti wiehed minn dawk li ma jghafux jaqraw bil-Malti, ghallhekk
ghazilt li ma tirrispondix ghal-mistoqsijiet li ghamilt jiena. Jew inkella forsi xi wiehed milli
ircevejt xi beneficcju minn xi permess, jew minn xi board, min jghaf ?? Nassiguarak li dak
li ktibt jiena, l-Maltin ta l-affari taghahom jikkonfermawh kollu, jekk ma tistax tifhem int, allura
jfisser li ghandhek problema int. NASSIGURAK li ma ghandhi l-ebda problema sabiex meta
immur nivvota, kapaci hafna sabiex nivvota mal-maggoranza Maltija sabiex nehilsu mill
klikka ta Gonzi PN, imbghad probabbli li nies bhalek ser jkollhom problema.

Mark Spiteri

Jan 16th, 09:03

neither would I ..

A Tonna

Jan 16th, 10:54

Nikkumpatik

Paul Caruana

Jan 15th, 18:22

Your blog is sick - not just the above linked article, but all of them whether PN or MLP related.

Get a life!

R Abela

Jan 15th, 20:21

trid tghid bhal meta ivvotajna ghal gonzipn u jpiccajna bi gvern bazwi kollhu kemm hu.

Joe Fenech

Jan 15th, 23:31

A real satirist has the b..... not to write anonymously or without sufficient biography !

Alan Xuereb

Jan 15th, 18:18

Now you're talking!!! It was in your interest to go to the police and file a report.

A Calleja

Jan 15th, 18:30

Why don't you mentioned these people, since you know.

Paul Caruana

Jan 15th, 18:36

This is a serious allegation! The police should look into this.

Alfred Cassar

Jan 15th, 19:52

Fred you are in duty bound to inform the police immediately if you knew of these things. But I suspect you are writing it here just to make a point without being able to prove it, right?

mark borg

Jan 15th, 19:58

Would not be amazed !

Joe Fenech

Jan 15th, 22:01

Not reporting a crime make you an accomplice.

Paul Giordimaina

Jan 16th, 08:58

What a load of crap you are talkink those things yous are the experts like that time to buy a coloured Tv you have to9 ask a minister and you buy it from Consiljo,so dont talk bulshit. Fred

GEORGE CUTAJAR

Jan 15th, 20:43

Ah so you are expecting a 'land slight' tkaxkira?

That is a bit impossible as it does not exist!!!

Angus Black

Jan 15th, 21:48

Victor Vella Minister 'Wistin Gatto' had the guts, no Labour minister had, in 16+2 years of horrible administrations, to tackle the cowboys who year after year drew the derision of locals and tourists alike.

Christina Pace

Jan 16th, 10:17

To Angus, and all like thinkers, the PN also did nothing about public transport, for many more years than the PL, until finally making a move. Doing something about it so late in their administration of the country and on top of that with such horrible results is not an event worthy of praise.

One would think with so many years sitting on the issue, any governemnt should have had a plan of implementation that worked far better that the Arriva fiasco, especially considering the huge consultation fee forked out, from our taxes, for a decent plan.

Ben Agius

Jan 16th, 04:19

It takes one to know one! Maybe, just MAYBE, to the extent he succeeded, that's why the cowboys were subdued eventually! Or was it the money? An offer they couldn't refuse.

Mark Spiteri

Jan 16th, 09:01

I don't.....I believe no other previous Prime Minister had so much difficulties to confront...and without taking any feathers out of previous PN leaders, Gonzi comes out with flying colours too:)

Paul Giordimaina

Jan 16th, 09:09

What are you implying? You are full of crab

Ms Rudi Mcbeal

Jan 15th, 15:30

"and they have good reason, as they will not get away with last minute promises of tax deductions, or issuing outstanding Mepa permits at the last minute before the General Election to gain last minute votes...... of course.....PN voters not keen on early election..."

Pray, what do PN voters and sympathizers have to do with all that, Mr Micallef?

Lord give me strength!

Angus Black

Jan 15th, 15:43

@ Charles Micallef

The NP will not promise tax deductions, at least in the short term, irrespective of when the election is called.

On the other hand, Joseph cannot sustain his promise of lower W&E tariffs because he knows quite well (and also should you) that he cannot reintroduce subsidies without raising taxes.

An early election at this time would not be ideal since if there is a change in government it will take the new administration about six months to get going after sitting in Opposition for the last 23 years or so.

Charles Micallef

Jan 15th, 20:08

Rudi Mcbeal

Do live live in malta, have you not seen for youself how elections are won in Malta? as you have not, Lord should give you a good eyesight as well as strength?

Angus Black

What experience did the majority of the present government ministers had before the last general election? This is also their first experience. I have always voted for the winning party, since i returned to Malta 20 years since, and between you and I, be I assured that I will not be voting PN in this fortcoming election,as I have not seen so much arrogance and abuse in all my born days... !

mark borg

Jan 15th, 14:46

Spot on !

Victor Boyde

Jan 15th, 15:41

Dear P Caruana, do you really believe that those who (as you quoted) "qed ipappija" I presume it means "on the gravy train" are worried about an election? I don't think so because, once a new party is in government they will be engaged with a new beginning.

mark borg

Jan 15th, 10:13

Titbaqbaqx Mr...GonziPN GAME OVER !

Joseph Borg

Jan 15th, 11:42

it is true and I agree that the pn government has done much to the country in the beginning of the millennium. However dr gonzi will unfortunately be remembered for scandals and mal-government. I think that everything can be summarised in the power station extension project, from how the emission thresholds were first lowered to the adjudication process of this project. We are a small country and should realise that a government should not be allowed to go beyond 10 years because after that the interest of persons will start to take over and become more important than the interest of the nation.

R. Gauci

Jan 15th, 12:23

Mhux sewwa li l-PN jibqa jiehu l-premju ta` li ghamel 10-15 -il sena ilu anke meta qed ibazwar, kif mhux gust li l-PL jibqa jigi kkastigat fuq li ghamel (mhux 100% tort tieghu anqas) 25-30 sena ilu anke meta llum ghandu team gdid u kapaci. Il-pajjiz ghatxan ghall-bidla.

A Bezzina

Jan 15th, 13:00

@ R Gauci
Team gdid?!?! Iddahhaqnix ...
U iva, sewwa li nibqghu nsemmu dak li gara fit-80ijiet sakemm nies bhalek jammettu li saru zbalji, u jieqfu jippruvaw jiggustifikaw dawk l-attroticajiet billi jghidu li ma kienx 100% tort tal-MLP!! Lanqas qatt ma ntalbet skuza ... u allura IVA nibqghu nsemmu dak iz-zmien, ghax ghal min bata (ovvjament, int ma kontx wiehed minnhom), hija pjaga kbira li QATT ma smajna semplici skuza tigi mlissna mil-MLP (jew PL)!

B Azzopardi

Jan 15th, 13:49

@R. Gauci
Team gdid? You're serious??? Ha nfakrek ftit forsi ma tafx il min andkom: Anglu Farrugia, Toni Abela, Karmenu Vella, Alfred Sant, Evarest Bartolo..........Enlighten me Mr Gauci bit team inkompetenti gdid l-andkom!!!!

M cauchi

Jan 15th, 13:53

bla bla bla bla... its seems ur one of those canvassers trying to win some votes for pn...

Clint Zammit

Jan 15th, 13:57

@r gauci , team gdid b Alex sciberras trigona , toni abela , anglu farrugia u karmenu vella fost lohrajn ???

James Tyrrell

Jan 15th, 14:33

John everyone is entitled to their opinion and in your opinion Gonzi is a great man who has did great things and I doubt if you will be swayed from that view. It's interesting to note however that you don't actually mention any of these great achievements of Gonzi's. It's easy enough to say he has did this or that or he has met this difficult situation but to be credible you must list all these wonderful things that Gonzi has done. And perhaps as a lifelong Nationalist voter you could say how you felt about the extra 500 Euros per week that Gonzi gave himself and his ministers behind your back. I'm sure most of the Nationalist voters reading this would be more than happy with 500 Euros a week pay never mind as a raise in pay!

Aaron Vella

Jan 15th, 15:33

R Gauci

Il-problema hi semplici fil-PL. Alfred Sant taghajjar lil dawk in-nies li ghamlu hsara kbira lil-Pajjiz u iktar u iktar lil Partit... Telgha Joseph Muscat u rega poggiehom f'posthom. Kif in-nies jistghu jinsew il- hdura ta' certu nies ta 25-30 sena ilu, meta jafu li dawn l-istess nies se jkunu qed jiktbu il-futur taghhom?
L-ikbar arma tal-PN hija l-ghazla fjakka ta' nies li ghandu madwaru Joseph Muscat. Kellhom cans ibiddlu vera il-partit... Imma min vera xtaq li l-pajjiz jigi qabel certu nies fil-partit warbuh. Jigifieri l-laburisit ma tantx ghandhom ghalfejn jitkellmu fuq il-klikek fil-PN... U taf x'jien nghid jekk mintx xi wiehed li dak li jaghmel il-PL kollu tajjeb.

David Bezzina

Jan 16th, 02:01

@Ruben gauci : The truth is that some PN supporters think that it is their God-given right to always govern the country.Everything related to th PL is bad and wrong.
Yes,mistakes were done in the 80's but also in the 60's.No party has a clean slate.

john mifsud

Jan 15th, 10:28

u have a very well natured sense of humour. be polite in your reply and contributions ; your intelligence merits us a better reply. I do not think that malta invested in your education to no avail. Be positive and contribute something useful for our intelligence to understand and learn from.

john mifsud

Jan 15th, 12:01

dr franco debono could be the light at the end of the tunnel for the PN, my friend. He could the future FRANCO PN, kollox possibli, who knows! Could be our surprise and your surprise, HAH HA!!!!

Mr Charles.C. Brown

Jan 15th, 13:46

If Franco Debono sticks to his guns and doesnt make a U turn at the very end then im seeing another great leader emerging at the end of the tunnel! We all wait and see!

M cauchi

Jan 15th, 13:52

whats your point john mifsud???

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