Labour leads the Nationalist Party by five per cent in the polls, a survey commissioned by The Sunday Times shows.
The Labour Party commands just over 52 per cent of the vote, ahead of the Nationalists at almost 47 per cent, while Alternattiva Demokratika lags way behind with one per cent, according to the survey.
A deeper analysis of the poll shows a hefty 5.8 per cent swing of 2008 Nationalist voters towards the Labour camp, which puts Joseph Muscat’s party in a comfortable lead. The PL needs just a 0.3 per cent swing from the last general election to secure a narrow victory.
Misco surveys commissioned some three months before the 2008 election had shown a four per cent swing in favour of Labour, but the PN had a much bigger majority before that election. With an early general election a distinct possibility, just over 20 per cent said they did not know who to vote for, 15.4 per cent refused to respond, while 7.8 per cent said they had no intention of voting.
The survey, with a sample of 500 respondents, was conducted by Misco International between Tuesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 per cent.
Respondents are practically split right down the middle whether the Prime Minister should call a general election at once or let the legislature run its course until 2013.
Dr Muscat and Lawrence Gonzi are practically neck and neck in the trust ratings. However, the opposition leader enjoys the trust of 7.4 per cent of those who voted PN at the last election. On the other hand, Dr Gonzi only has the trust of 1.6 per cent of those who voted Labour in 2008.
Nearly half of all respondents believe Nationalist backbencher Franco Debono was motivated by his own personal interest when he declared he would stop supporting the government, an issue which came to a head on the day the Prime Minister announced a Cabinet reshuffle. Dr Debono has not yet declared how he will vote in a motion of no confidence called by the PL on Thursday.
While the majority said Dr Debono should give up his parliamentary seat, 55 per cent of voters believe Dr Gonzi should not resign. Respondents listed the ‘high level of education’ as the government’s biggest success, while an overwhelming number said the increase in ministers’ salary was the administration’s biggest mistake, ahead of the public transport debacle and hikes in energy tariffs.
More than nine per cent believe jobs would be the single most important issue that would dictate the way they voted at the next election, while nearly seven per cent merely felt the country needed a change in government.