It has been a tough year; a number of Cassandras predict 2012 will be worse. What can that mean for Malta as the country keeps its head well above water while many of her friends in the EU struggle to come up for air – or burst; bust if you prefer?
Franco Debono has fallen desperately in love with the sound of his threats
The fiscal prudence exercised by Gonzi’s government during the past year paid off handsomely; the same dose of prudence this year promises to do the same, the rest of the world permitting.
And as we leave 2011 to its place in the history books – the introduction of divorce, for which there was not the rush implied by the quoted number of “irreconcileable”, perhaps the scenario was painted by impressionists; the Libyan drama in which Malta played so positive a role; the Arriva shambles, now mercifully cleaned up but not swiftly enough to prevent a government backbencher from creating disproportionate waves; the magnificent performance that made us the envy of larger economies as employment increased where in many EU countries it nose-dived, unemployment decreased where elsewhere it surged, and the economy grew where in most other EU countres it contracted – as we leave all that to history, a litttle glance at the future.
It looks as if a pervasive irritant in the shape of MP Franco Debono will continue to demand attention. The man defines himself as “the voice of reason” and appears keen to walk in the footsteps of Dom Mintoff, who brought Sant’s government down in 1998.
The “saviour of Malta” as Mintoff’s supporters called him in the turbulent 1970s was swiftly downgraded by worshippers to the level of a “traitor”.
Our crisis-driven backbencher trudging in Mintoff’s tracks threatened to abstain on a vote of no confidence brought before the house by the Opposition over the Arriva debacle; he is now baying for the blood of the Justice Minister and that of the Prime Minister unless Gonzi does what he, Monsieur le grand de Bon, insists he must do.
This is not so much embarrassing for the Prime Minister, although it is that, as stressful at a time when he needs to be focused on the larger picture of governance and the need to steer the country through crises of other countries’ making.
Some have advised Gonzi to call an election; he should ignore that firmly and publicly. His government was not elected to buckle under the shots fired by a loose cannon; no; his job now is to read the riot act to Debono and tell him he has no intention to call an election over a comparative trifle in the context of the work that still requires to be done before this legislature runs its course.
He should warn him that he will be held responsible before his own constituents, never mind the party in general, for any consequences that might proceed from any precipitous action he might be minded to make; that he must not confuse principle with detail.
It should not cross Gonzi’s mind to mollify the man with the promise of a ministry as some people think he should, not least because Debono has fallen desperately in love with the sound of his threats and his next demand may well be to take over the Prime Minster’s job.
It is clear that Gonzi does not enjoy knocking heads together; his preferred modus operandi is to persuade people, create consensus. It must also be crystal clear to him that Debono’s maverick behaviour has upset not only the government but its supporters.
To the man’s lasting discredit, any support he retains comes from the benches of the Opposition and the cohorts they represent.
None of this may be clear to the “voice of reason”; all the more reason for clarifying it in language that even a voice of unreason can understand. He has had his hour; in any other situation but a political one, on a board of directors for example, he would not have been given another minute.
Apart from this malodorous irritant, 2012 will witness the completion of a number of new infrastructure projects on the back of so many others that have, over the past 20 years, wrought radical changes to the face of Malta.
Before settling down to 2012 we must surely take pride in the handsome sum of a shave under €2.6 million, or €6.5 per person that were contributed to the Community Chest Fund.
For a country the size of Germany to reach this figure, the sum would have to reach close to half a billion euros! Now, one last mighty effort to donate handsomely to Dar tal-Providenza, Malta’s jewel in the Charity Crown.
2012 abroad
Much of the rest of the world enters 2012 traumatised by one event or another, but not all; for example Brazil has overtaken Britain to become the world’s sixth largest economy; India and China continue to power ahead, thelatter indifferent to criticism over its lamentable human rights.
As realpolitik is what seems to matter at the end of the day, thecriticism is a flow of empty words that Britain and the US, to name but two, feel compelled to mouth even as they know it will not make a blind bit of difference – because leverage is in the hand of the oppressorand commercial interests trump all others.
From removing Saddam Hussein from power, the US has changed roles and is now supposed to be an honest broker between Shiites and Sunnis in Iraq, but eastwards look!
Reports in the Iranian press are claiming that Iran was “ready to expand its military and security ties with Iraq”. The US President of has warned Iran not to try to interfere with Iraq. Or else what? Barack Obama will send troops back to Iraq?
The point is that by now most leaders who once had reason to take American statements into consideration before embarking upon some folly, grand or petite, no longer take much notice of a man who has been posturing as the leader of the free world for the past three years and achieving precious little – yo-yoing in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, failing completely to engage with Iran, central to his policy of disbelief inAmerican exceptionalism, late in Egypt, late in Libya and keeping well back when the heat turned up there.
His preferred option to lead from the back has not impressed the world unduly; certainly not Iran, which is even now threatening to block oil supplies shipped through the Straits of Hormuz.
Vladimir Putin who will be elected President of Russia in March and who has never quite forgotten his KGB background has Obama’s measure pretty accurately by now.
In a way, 2012 will be the year in which there will be a number of happenstances – the Olympics in Britain; a possible, if revolting, return to politics of the dreadfulSilvio Berlusconi; the battle for the French presidency – and one which the entire world follow closely: the re-election of Barack Obama or his consignment to wherever failed presidents retire.
The campaign has already started and everybody in the US and in countries from the Aleutin islands to Zanzibar has his eyes down for the first draw – which is the Iowa caucus in three days’ time.
This event will act as the formal start for the nomination of the Republican candidate who will eventually be chosen to face down the incumbent President. It is the start of a long, physically and mentally tiring process punctuated by acrimony until the chosen one emerges when ranks are closed, insults forgotten and the battle for the White House begins in earnest.
The run-up to Iowa has been characterised by some pretty ferocious blood-letting, mainly but by no means only Newt Gringich’s. Republican anti-Gingrichites have had a ball over Newt’s infidelities, for example, but pro-Newts revel in the man’s ability to excite what they call the party base.
As at the first week in December he achieved flavour-of-the-month status thus incensing his rivals to pour millions of dollars’ worth of negative adverts in an attempt to de-flavour him; a move that has torn into Gingrich’s share of the vote and given a fillip to Rick Santorum.
The point about Gingrich, from what one reads, is that he exudes a confidence that allows him to declare with some conviction that he looks forward to the presidential debate with Obama and cheekily informs the Commander-in-Chief that, “If he wants to use a teleprompter, that would be fine with me”.
Before he gets to debate with Obama, however, there are many obstacles, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Ricky Santorum, Michelle Bachmann, the unfortunate Rick Perry, who went through that awful moment of forgetting what one of his top three priorities was, and so on. It’s quite a field.
Iowa does not pick a winner, but it brings to the nation’s attention possible alternatives to Obama who, at the start of the month, was shown in a Gallup poll to have the lowest ratings for any president at this point in his first term; but these are rising.
It would be naive to write off Obama at this stage; for one thing he has a campaign machinery that is far more efficient than that of any of his rivals; for another, a Chicago politician is not written off as easily as all that. And Obama was never voted Mr Clean of the Year.
So, Republican supporters will want to see their candidates getting properly dug in – and their act together. These have not done so, yet. Meanwhile the world can do anything much it wants to do; the President’s eye is focused on a different ball in a different ball game. Interesting to see what will happen if Iran, for example, detonates an atom bomb to declare to the world that it has reached nuclear power status of however limited a kind.
Interesting – and awesome.