The eurozone is expected to go into recession in 2012 and the global economy will no doubt suffer as a result. We can expect the eurozone crisis to continue into the year, and although progress has been made in tackling the single currency’s problems, more will need to be done. Germany and France will continue to take centre stage in dealing with the euro’s troubles.
The EU will do whatever it takes to save the euro and the austerity measures being implemented in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland will pay off- Anthony Manduca
The EU will do whatever it takes to save the euro and the austerity measures – however harsh – being implemented in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland will pay off.
Greece’s problems are far worse than the other eurozone countries experiencing difficulties and I’m not fully convinced that Athens won’t default. We can expect more social unrest in a number of European countries, particularly Greece.
The American presidential election will be a close one and the economy will decide Barack Obama’s fate. The latest US unemployment figures are encouraging for Obama as the jobless rate fell to 8.6 per cent in November from nine per cent the month before, a two-and-a-half-year low.
If this trend continues Obama’s re-election hopes will be boosted, however the gloomy global economic forecast for 2012 could well dent the US jobs recovery.
It will be an interesting year in US Republican politics, and the party will have to decide between choosing a presidential candidate who can appeal to centrist and independent voters, like Mitt Romney, or one who can appeal to the party’s conservative base, like Newt Gingrich. I believe somebody like Romney has a better chance of defeating Obama.
In France, President Nicolas Sarkozy will face a difficult battle for re-election against his prin-cipal rival, Socialist candidate Francois Hollande, and he will present himself as an experienced international statesman and a force for stability.
Sarkozy, however, could lose votes to other centrist and right wing candidates such as Francois Bayrou, Dominique de Villepin and Marine Le Pen, which could hinder his prospects for victory.
Vladimir Putin is likely to be elected President but Russians will continue to insist on genuine democracy through more protests and the use of social networks. Pressure will also mount on Putin to ensure that the presidential election is free and fair.
In China a new leadership will be appointed at a Communist Party Congress in October which will assume office in 2013. The government’s focus this year is expected to be maintaining stability and ensuring job creation in a difficult global economic climate.
The Arab Spring is likely to continue this year and some analysts even believe it will spread to sub-Sahara Africa. However, there will be no uniform demand for freedom and democracy across the entire Arab world. Each Arab country has its own particular set of circumstances and reform is possible in some states while in others only a genuine revolution will bring about real change.
We can expect Islamist parties to continue doing well at the polls whenever genuine elections are held in the Arab world and for the debate to intensify between secularists and Islamists. Arab Christians and women will continue to be concerned at the advance of Islamist parties.
Non-Arab Turkey will continue to play a leading role in the Arab Spring, Tunisia’s path to democracy will be encouraging for the entire Arab world, the situation in Syria will get worse before any global action is taken and the army in Egypt will insist on keeping its important role in the country’s political set-up.
Al-Qaeda will lose more influence and appeal in the Muslim world but is likely to remain active in Iraq, Yemen and Somalia, thus further contributing to regional instability. It will be interesting to see if the Arab Spring reaches the Gulf States, where generous handouts have so far prevented any unrest (except in Bahrain). The country to watch is Saudi Arabia where any turmoil could have far reaching global implications.
The UN General Assembly is likely to grant the Palestinians the status of ‘Non-Member Observer State’ after their bid for full UN membership will be vetoed by the Americans at the Security Council.
This veto will damage America’s influence in the Arab world, but President Obama cannot afford to quarrel with the Jewish lobby in an election year. The resumption of direct talks between Israel and the Palestinians this year seems unlikely.
Iran will carry on causing problems for the world and will insist on continuing with its nuclear programme. Teheran is also likely to encourage its allies Hizbollah and Hamas to cause trouble should its key ally Syria continue to face unrest and it will continue to instability in Iraq and Afghanistan. As always, Israel will be tempted to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Nuclear-armed North Korea is unlikely to make any policy changes and will continue to threaten its southern neighbour. Its new leader Kim Jong-un will consolidate his power to show he is fully in control.
Pakistani-American relations, which nosedived in 2011 following the killing of Osama bin Laden, the accidental killing of Pakistani troops by Nato air strikes and Pakistani support for the Taliban are unlikely to improve this year and would get even worse should a military coup take place in Islamabad.
During a difficult time for the EU, the bloc’s presidency will be led by two small countries. Non-eurozone member Denmark takes over today and will be succeeded in July by Cyprus. During the second half of the year we can therefore expect relations between the EU and Turkey to deteriorate even further.
This year there are presidential elections in Kenya, Taiwan, Mexico, Iceland and Venezuela – where Hugo Chavez will fight for his political life, as well as his health. There are also parliamentary elections in Iran – which as usual will be flawed – and in Lithuania and South Korea.
Happy New Year to all.