Wild Oats targets sixth win

Supermaxi Wild Oats XI looks set to secure its sixth win in Australia’s Sydney to Hobart yacht race, but southerly winds and cyclone-related swells mean its race record is likely to stay untouched.

Eighty-eight boats are due to make the gruelling 628 nautical mile dash from Sydney Harbour tomorrow, down the southeast coast of Australia to the Tasmanian state capital Hobart.

Success in the famously unforgiving ocean race, which takes crews across the notorious Bass Strait and up the maddening calm of the Derwent River, often comes down to weather.

Catastrophic conditions claimed six lives and sank five yachts in 1998, and vessels are routinely unable to complete the race, with just 69 of 87 starters last year finishing the course.

Coastal currents and the rapidly changing weather conditions make the Sydney to Hobart one of the world’s most challenging races, and a cyclone brewing to the northeast is set to whip up some challenging seas for the 2011 edition.

“(There will be) two different wave trains, one from the south and one from the northeast, that will make for fairly erratic conditions,” said weather forecaster Rob Webb.

Tropical Cyclone Fina will see favourable northerlies and swell for the race’s start on Boxing Day, but a southerly front is expected within the first 12 hours bringing strong headwinds likely to persist until Wednesday.

The conditions will favour the 30-metre (100 foot) Wild Oats XI, with one bookmaker so confident the super-maxi will bag a sixth line honours victory from seven starts that he has paid out a win on Thursday.

Wild Oats navigator Adrienne Cahalan said the forecast meant its 2005 race record of one day, 18 hours, 40 minutes and 10 seconds looked safe.

“I’m afraid it is out of the window, there’s too much southerly in this forecast,” Cahalan said of the chances the record would fall.

“I can’t see any record breakers here.”

The race awards line honours for the first boat across the finishing line as a well as handicap honours, which takes into account each boat’s dimensions, including its sail area, whether it has a canting or fixed keel, and age.

Fellow 100-footer Investec Loyal is seen as Wild Oats’s major rival for line honours, having nabbed second place in 2010, along with 98-foot Wild Thing, 2003 line honours winner.

Midnight Rambler, a new yacht yet to be tested in rough weather conditions, is among handicap favourites and skipper Michael Bencsik said his involvement in the disastrous 1998 race had instilled the importance of preparation.

“I think that sort of experience you have never leaves you,” Bencsik said, adding that success was equal parts preparation, crew and the elements.

Tony Kirby, who will be competing in his 27th Sydney to Hobart on the Patrice Six, came agonisingly close to winning handicap honours two years ago, only to see boats cross after him with a quicker time overall due to better winds after he had finished the race.

The oldest yacht in this year’s race is the 79-year-old nine-metre Maluka, which is also the smallest entrant, while boats are also competing from France, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Britain and the United States.