The next election is due by mid-2013 at the latest, but the Prime Minister has the prerogative to set an earlier date.

Political circumstances may push Lawrence Gonzi to call an election next year. He may do so after assessing whether it is possible to continue governing in circumstances where a government MP has withdrawn his support or else by testing the waters and calling a vote of confidence. According to Constitutional Law expert Ian Refalo, a vote of no confidence would prompt the President to dissolve Parliament, but the Constitution gives the President some discretion if dissolution is recommended by the Prime Minister.

The Constitution says that if the President considers that the government can continue functioning and that dissolution “would not be in the interests of Malta” he may refuse to dissolve Parliament.

If an election beckons, though, the first plausible option is March when local elections are due for half of the electorate.

In 2008, Parliament was dissolved on February 4, giving the political parties just over a month of campaigning for the election that was held on March 8. With Easter Sunday this year set to fall on April 8 and the Prime Minister unlikely to call an election that coincides with the religious cele-brations, the next plausible date after March would be sometime in May or June.

Parliament is in its Christmas recess and is expected to reconvene on January 18.