The US withdrawal from Iraq will leave a power vacuum in the Gulf, analysts say, paving the way for Iran to increase its influence in this economic and politically strategic region, a concern echoed by America’s Gulf allies.
The (US) presence gave them (Gulf countries) a sense of stability due to America’s military capabilities
“The US withdrawal from Iraq will no doubt create a power vacuum,” said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research Centre, noting that the US presence in the region empowered Gulf Arab countries with “whom they share interests and are bound by security agreements”.
“This (US) presence gave them (Gulf countries) a sense of stability and security due to America’s military capabilities,” said Mr Sager, adding that the troop withdrawal will “strengthen Iran’s military and intelligence influence”, in Iraq.
After nine years in Iraq, the US will withdraw its last remaining troops by the end of this year, a year that so far has seen unprecedented uprisings in the Arab world that have unseated three entrenched dictators in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, but also fuelled the sectarian and religious divide in the region.
Gulf Arab countries are primarily concerned about what Iran might do in what is today a Shiite-led Iraq, as well as their intentions in the broader region, including Saudi Arabia and Bahrain where Sunni regimes have harshly quelled Shiite dissent in recent months.
Iraq shares a religious link with Iran, and both nations have expressed similar critical views of the mounting regional and international pressure on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to resign. US government officials, who have been working to calm concerns in the region, have argued that Iran in fact has failed to make Iraq a “client state,” and that the Islamic republic is growing increasingly isolated.
Tensions between Iran and its Arab rivals have risen in recent months as the Sunni-ruled monarchies in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain continue to accuse Tehran of instigating unrest among their Shiite populations. Earlier this year in Bahrain, Shiite-led protests calling for democratic reforms were brutally quashed, leaving dozens dead.
An independent investigation into the crackdown found no evidence of Iranian involvement, but the Bahraini government has insisted that Iran’s propaganda played a role in the uprising.
Iraq’s military chief of staff, Babak Zebari, has also conceded that Iraq may not be able to fully defend its borders, saying it will be years before the military can “perform all its external defence duties”. Iran analyst and head of the Centre for Strategic Studies in Kuwait, Sami al-Faraj, argues that Iran’s military capabilities do not compare with the Gulf Arab nations, which he says will be able to fend off any potential Iranian aggression.
“Iran’s weapons are old and worn out,” said Mr Faraj, adding that Iraq and its Gulf neighbours would be able to withstand an Iranian attack.