Is this the Russian Spring?

Last Sunday’s parliamentary elections in Russia have served as a wake-up call for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his United Russia party which saw its share of the popular vote officially reduced from 64.3 per cent in 2007 to 49.5 per cent.

To blame outside forces for genuine domestic protests is a sign of desperation- Anthony Manduca

Under normal circumstances, any party in a democracy receiving nearly half the popular vote is considered to have performed very well. However, the huge swing against United Russia despite reports of widespread vote fraud in favour of the ruling party and the protests that followed are not good news for Putin.

Russia is not a fully functioning democracy and won’t be for a while. Political competition is restricted, freedom of expression, speech and assembly is limited, the independent media is harassed and the state-controlled media is heavily biased in favour of United Russia.

A very heavy swing was nonetheless registered against United Russia and Putin. This and the protests that have followed the election show that Russia is indeed changing and Putin is certainly not as popular as he once was.

The various reports citing irregularities in last week’s election are worrying. International observers, such as the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the Council of Europe have alleged numerous violations, including the stuffing of ballot boxes in favour of United Russia.

Russia’s only independent monitoring group, Golos, said it had registered 5,300 complaints alleging violations, and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has called – much to the annoyance of the Kremlin – for an investigation into the parliamentary elections which she described as neither free nor fair. Significantly, former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev has called for the results of the parliamentary elections to be annulled.

So far Putin’s reaction to both international criticism of the election and to the protests in the streets has not been encouraging. He said the US was responsible for the popular protests against his rule and referred to his opponents as puppets of Hillary Clinton. Putin even said that the Russian opposition was being used by Western governments to punish Russia for its status as a nuclear power.

The Russian Prime Minister remarked that Russia “must protect its sovereignty” by preventing foreign governments from interfering in its domestic affairs.

“We will have to think about improving our laws in order to make those fulfilling the tasks of a foreign state aimed at influencing our domestic process more responsible,” Putin said.

Such rhetoric is obviously very unhelpful and reminds me of the way Syrian President Bashar al-Assad talks about foreign agents being behind the turmoil in his country, and the way Muammar Gaddafi used to blame outside powers for creating the conflict in Libya. I am not comparing Putin to either Assad or Gaddafi, nor am I saying that Russia is about to go through the same type of revolution – although I think Russia will slowly change – but to blame outside forces for genuine domestic protests is simply unacceptable and a sign of desperation.

The swing against United Russia and the popular protests in various cities are a severe setback to Putin as he prepares to run for the presidency in March. In fact, the deal announced last September in which President Dmitri Medvedev announced he would step aside for Mr Putin, who served as President from 2000 to 2008 but was limited by the constitution to serve for only two consecutive terms, was one factor which contributed to the swing against United Russia.

This deal, in which Medvedev is to replace Putin as Prime Minister after the presidential election, has shocked many Russians who are concerned about the possibility of Putin serving as President for another two consecutive terms. The presidential term of office has now been extended to six years, which means Putin could be in office until 2024.

Although it is likely that Putin will be elected President in March – the political system very much favours the ruling party and the opposition is fragmented – many middle class Russians and the business elite are starting to turn against Putin.

The reasons are varied and include perceptions of corruption, among others. The use of the internet has also increased dramatically in Russia, which helped bring about the swing against United Russia. This is bound to be a major factor in the presidential election.

Putin’s United Russia will still have a slim majority of seats in parliament, but things will now probably never be the same. Ideally, genuine political and economic reform should take place including allowing modern democratic parties to freely operate in the country.

It is a sad fact that the opposition parties represented in Parliament are made up mostly of Communists, Nationalists and a pro-Kremlin party. Putin could, however, be tempted to retreat into his conservative inner circle, continue to clamp down on his opponents and adopt a populist anti-Western rhetoric, to win the presidential election.

That would be a big mistake, and Russia would become a more awkward partner to deal with, which is in nobody’s interest