Spain turns to the centre-right

Spain’s centre-right Popular Party led by Mariano Rajoy won a convincing victory in last Sunday’s general election which was dominated by the country’s debt crisis, slow economic growth and super-high unemployment rate of 21.5 per cent.

The largest parliamentary majority of any party in the last 30 years- Anthony Manduca

The Popular Party won 44.6 per cent of the popular vote, its biggest win ever, and received an absolute majority of 186 seats in the 350-seat Parliament. The Socialist Party, which has governed Spain since 2004, suffered the biggest defeat in its history, and got only 28.7 per cent of the vote and 110 seats.

“The Socialist Party did not have a good result. We clearly lost the elections,” the party’s candidate for Prime Minister, Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba, declared when the results were announced.

Spanish voters punished the Socialist government led by Jose Luis Zapatero for not reacting fast enough when the property bubble burst in 2008 – which, combined with the global financial crisis at the time, created mass unemployment – and for allowing the economy to deteriorate, only to then introduce very harsh austerity measures at a later stage.

Although Spain’s economic and financial crisis has dragged on for three years, the current situation in the eurozone obviously didn’t help – the country’s borrowing costs have risen dramatically – and the Spanish government became the fifth in the euro area whose collapse this year has been linked to the debt crisis, after Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Italy.

Rajoy, a practising Catholic and social conservative who is said to be not very interested in foreign policy, told his supporters after his election victory there was no “miracle” to solve the country’s financial crisis and that he was aware of the “magnitude of the task ahead” as he prepares for government.

The incoming Prime Minister will have to convince his European partners, particularly Germany, as well as the markets, that he is serious about introducing economic reform and continuing with the outgoing government’s austerity measures. Rajoy also has to persuade the Spanish people that austerity measures are essential and that he has the willpower to fix the economy and create jobs.

The fact that the Popular Party won an absolute majority of seats is encouraging because it means Spain will have a stable government which will not have to rely on the support of the smaller parties when introducing difficult economic measures. In today’s uncertain economic climate such stability is definitely a huge plus.

It is interesting to note that since the re-establishment of democracy in 1977 only three governments in Spain have enjoyed an absolute majority of parliamentary seats: in 1982, 1986 and 2000.

All other administrations have been minority governments that relied on the smaller parties for support in Parliament, including the last two Socialist governments formed in 2004 and 2008. On one occasion, in 1989, the government had half the parliamentary seats.

Rajoy enters government with the largest parliamentary majority of any party in the past 30 years, so it would seem he has a clear mandate to bring about economic re-form. But it is also true that while the Socialists lost 4.3 million votes in this election, the Popular Party gained only half a million votes compared to the 2008 election.

This shows that there was a massive swing away from the Socialists which did not all go towards the Popular Party.

The United Left, for example, a coalition of left-wingers and Greens, saw its share of the vote increase to 1.67 million, and it won 11 seats compared to only two in 2008. However, this is still a very good and historic result for the Popular Party, and it must now get down to fixing Spain’s economy.

During the electoral campaign Rajoy promised to continue implementing the austerity measures introduced by Zapatero, whilerunning the government moreefficiently, promoting economic growth through incentives for small businesses, reforming the labour market and promoting competition in the energy sector.

He has also pledged to reduce the deficit to 4.4 per cent of GDP next year but has yet to disclose his plans for spending cuts, which has earned him some criticism. Since 70 per cent of the budget deficit is structural, this implies that long-term – and difficult – reforms are inevitable. This election has proved to be third time lucky for Rajoy. He was his party’s candidate for Prime Minister in 2004 when the Popular Party was expected to win a third term in office.

However, the party suffered a shock defeat blamed on outgoing Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar’s handling of the Madrid train bombings. In 2008 Rajoy again lost the election, blamed mainly on his perceived lack of charisma, al­though the Popular Party increased its share of the popular vote.

Rajoy was greatly criticised in the press and some political circles after his second consecutive defeat in 2008, and in his autobiography he says: “Those were particularly bitter moments, during which I doubted whether I should remain the party’s leader or leave politics altogether.” However, Rajoy has proved to be a patient man.

Rajoy’s patience and perseverance could well prove to be an advantage as he tackles Spain’s economic and financial situation.

Perhaps Jose Maria Lassalle, a Popular Party MP, summed it up best when he told Reuters news agency: “He (Rajoy) is a long-distance runner, not a sprinter, and the economic crisis needs long-distance runners.”