The alleged Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the US is cause for great concern and has the potential to raise tensions in the Middle East when the last thing the region needs is another dispute, and to further aggravate already bad US-Iranian relations.
Barack Obama’s hopes of ‘engaging’ with Iran has suffered a major setback as a result of this plot- Anthony Manduca
Had the plot not been foiled, the consequences would have been far worse, with the possibility of war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The regional – and global – effects of such a conflict would have been dire.
The uncovering of the plot is a coup for the US intelligence agencies and a PR masterstroke for Washington which has long accused Teheran of sponsoring terrorism.
The US claims Iran backed a plot to kill Saudi envoy Adel el-Jubeir and to blow up the Israeli and Saudi embassies in Washington. US Attorney General Eric Holder said the plot was part of a $1.5m “international murder for hire scheme” linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
“The plot was conceived and sponsored from Iran and constitutes a blatant violation of US and international law. The US is committed to holding Iran accountable for its actions,” Mr Holder said.
Saudi Arabia is also pointing the finger at Iran over the assassination attempt. Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former Saudi intelligence chief, said evidence of the alleged plot was “overwhelming” and showed official Iranian complicity. Prince Turki told a conference in London: “This is unacceptable. Somebody in Iran will have to pay the price, no matter how high the level of that person is.”
The US has arrested two men over the alleged plot, Manssor Arbabsiar, a 56-year-old naturalised US citizen with dual Iranian and American passports, and Gholam Shakuri, who is based in Iran and is said to be a member of Iran’s Quds Force, a unit of the Revolutionary Guards. The FBI claims Arbabsiar had tried to persuade a member of a Mexico drug cartel to kill the Saudi Ambassador by blowing him up.
Iran has denied the charges and Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said the “scenario” outlined by the US was “naive”. “What is the necessity for Iran to carry out such an act?” he asked, adding that Teheran should ignore the allegations.
Although it is not yet established whether the Iranian government officially orchestrated the assassination plot – the Obama administration has so far said it will hold the Iranian government, led by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, accountable for it – it is possible that the plot was organised by rogue elements within the Iranian regime.
This, of course, does not make the allegations any less serious, and the Iranian government – if it really knows nothing about these claims – should launch an investigation into the plot and punish those responsible for it. Such a move would at least diffuse tensions and avoid further confrontations between Iran, Saudi Arabia and the US.
However, I doubt this will happen, and I would not be surprised if there was some sort of official Iranian involvement in this plot. There is a long history of animosity between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia. The two countries compete for regional influence, they have supported different sides in conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Bahrain and the Palestinian territories and Iran’s nuclear programme has been cause for great concern in Riyadh and the entire Arab world.
Last December, for example, disclosures by Wikileaks of US diplomatic cables claimed Saudi King Abdullah has repeatedly urged the US to bomb Iran and destroy its nuclear programme. The Saudi King was recorded as having “frequently exhorted the US to attack Iran to put an end to its nuclear weapons programme,” according to one cable.
In another leaked cable the Saudi Ambassador in Washington, Adel al-Jubeir – ironically the intended victim in this plot – is alleged to have said that King Abdullah told US General David Petreus in April 2008 “to cut off the head of the snake”, in a reference to Iran.
Other leaked cables claimed Saudi leaders often referred to Iran as “evil”, an “existential threat” and a power that “is going to take us to war”.
One leaked document reveals that then US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said that King Abdullah had warned the US that if Iran produced nuclear weapons “everyone in the region would do the same, including Saudi Arabia”.
And King Abdullah reportedly told the Iranian Interior Minister that as Persians they had no right to interfere in Arab affairs.
The US has announced further targeted sanctions against Iranian companies and individuals as a result of this plot.
That is fine, but Washington at this stage should avoid further confrontation and an escalation of hostilities with Iran, and it should persuade Saudi Arabia to do the same. The Middle East does not need another flashpoint at this point in time.
One thing is for certain: Barack Obama’s hopes of “engaging” with Iran – a key foreign policy theme of his presidential campaign three years ago – has suffered a major setback as a result of this plot.
And this is not good news because Iran’s nuclear programme needs to be curtailed, and engagement with this country – however nasty its regime is – is an essential part of the equation.