The Palestinian Authority’s application for statehood recognition is currently being considered by the United Nations Security Council and is a clear sign of the frustration felt by the Palestinians at the lack of progress in the Middle East peace process. Eighteen years after the Oslo Peace Accords were signed in Washington between Israel and the Palestinians, a Palestinian state is nowhere in sight and Israel continues to build settlements in the West Bank in open defiance of the international community.
Peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians have been frozen since September of last year, when the Palestinians broke them off in protest against Israeli settlement construction in the occupied territories. The Palestinians now feel their only hope for statehood is to go straight to the UN and demand full membership.
The Palestinians’ request, however, is likely to be rejected by the Security Council as the US, which believes that only direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians can lead to a Palestinian state, has made it clear that it will veto the Palestinian bid for statehood. The US has long advocated a two-state solution and appears to be influenced by domestic political considerations. But its position also reflects Israel’s legitimate security concerns.
Unfortunately, the US pledge to veto full Palestinian membership of the UN is bound to have negative consequences for American influence in the Arab and Muslim world at a time when this should be increasing due to Washington’s support for the Arab Spring.
It is not yet clear whether the Palestinians can muster nine votes in the Security Council in favour of their resolution – the number needed to approve their membership bid without a veto – but they would score a moral victory if they did have such support and it would represent a major embarrassment for the US should its veto go ahead.
The European Union currently has four member states serving on the Security Council but has yet to adopt a common position on the Palestinian bid for statehood. Last week’s vote by the European Parliament has struck the right balance in pointing to the direction it would like EU governments to take: backing UN recognition of Palestinian statehood in acknowledgement of its right to self-determination while stating a preference for a negotiated settlement that ensures the safety of Israel’s borders.
The likelihood is that a US veto will cause the Security Council to reject UN membership for the Palestinians. The next step could well be that the Palestinians will seek to be upgraded at the UN from an observer entity to a non-member observer state, along the lines of the Vatican. The advantage of this option is that it does not require the approval of the UN Security Council – and therefore no threat of a veto exists – but only a simple majority of the UN General Assembly (in contrast to a two-thirds majority to approve full membership if this is first approved by the Security Council) which should be easily achievable.
An observer-state status, which has been proposed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy as a compromise, deserves the support of the EU and Malta, which has endorsed it, should play its part in getting the bloc to back this option. This would be an important step forward for the Palestinians as it would give them access to international courts and various UN agencies. It would also represent a political victory for the Palestinians with the UN acknowledging that they control an actual state.