Can Libya’s rebels keep the country together?

As Col Gaddafi’s nearly-42-year rule faces its greatest challenge, experts say his quick exit could thrust Libya’s rebels into government ill-prepared, risking chaos.

Since Col Gaddafi took power in a 1969 coup he has utterly mono-polised Libya’s political, economic and cultural life.

An estimated four in five Libyans have never known politics without the colonel, or his cult of personality.

But Nato bombardments and the slow advance of rebel forces towards Tripoli mean the end of his rule could finally be at hand.

After the chaos of post-Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and post-Taliban Afghanistan, that prospect has many diplomats and observers nervously asking what comes next.

If Col Gaddafi falls tomorrow few believe that Libya’s National Trans-itional Council – despite four months of earnest development – is well equipped to govern.

“They are making progress,” said one European diplomat on condition of anonymity, “but they still have a lot to do. They really lack the capacity and the resources needed.”

The challenges the NTC faces are evident in its day-to-day operations. Volunteer security teams arrive late to guard the arrival of foreign dignitaries while statements from council members are often contradictory.

The chain of command remains opaque and divisions between former members of Col Gaddafi’s regime and the long-time oppos-ition – who rule out any talks with the strongman – have already been laid bare.

“They really are amateurs, a bunch of lawyers and wannabees,” said Mansour El-Kikhia, a Libyan political scientist now based in the US. “I don’t think they are capable of ruling the country today.”

Besides problems of experience, the NTC will inherit a legacy that makes the situation in pre-war Iraq enviable.

Although Col Gaddafi touted his Green Book, revolutionary committees and other vessels of participatory democracy, according to historian Dirk Vandewalle he did little to create functioning institutions.

The real tools of Col Gaddafi’s state were informal: the unleashing of the secret police on adversaries and fistfuls of oil dollars for allies.

So far hatred of Col Gaddafi and revolutionary zeitgeist have allowed the council to hold the disparate strands of Libyan society together without cash or the secret police.

As the war enters its fifth month people in the east remain largely resolute and united, even though power cuts and disruptions to everyday life are starting to rankle.

But an end to his regime or even a protracted war could throw the country’s many divisions – pent up for half a century – out into the open.

Tribalism and tensions between the religious and secular that are evident in the east, are, according to El-Kikhia, even more pronounced in the western region of Tripolitania.

From its headquarters in what was once a Benghazi archive, the council appears acutely aware of the risks.

It has already put forward a roadmap for democracy that would, within two days of Col Gaddafi fall or a ceasefire, allow a caretaker government to be formed.

The individuals will include members of the military, security forces and the regime who do not have blood on their hands – a composition aimed at preventing chaos.

Whether they succeed could depend as much on the council’s political finesse as when and how Col Gaddafi goes.