In eight days’ time Africa will change. On July 9, Sudan will be split into two. As a result, it will no longer be Africa’s largest country, in terms of size. Pole position will be henceforth taken by Algeria, whose future is critical for Europe as much as Africa.

Always in terms of geographical size, Algeria is the largest Mediterranean country. In a week, it will not only become the largest Arab country, it will enter the list of the top 10 largest countries in the world. For those readers who find direct comparisons help their imagination, Algeria is about eight times the size of the UK.

In international relations, size is not everything but it does matter, especially when a large country is also richly endowed with both natural and human resources. Algeria is such a country.

It ranks 14th in the world in terms of petroleum reserves. Its gas reserves are eighth globally. Thanks to the price of oil, its external debt has been largely eliminated because the fossil fuels energy sector accounts for some 30 per cent of GDP and some 95 per cent of its external revenues.

These figures exist despite the strength of its agriculture, which employs a quarter of the population, and thanks to the renowned fertility of Algeria’s soil. Olives, tobacco, citrus fruit, figs, dates and cereals are all crops grown successfully for export. Algeria is the largest oat market in Africa. Few are aware that it was one of the foremost producers of grapes for wine. Secondly, as for human resources, in the 1980s, families on average had seven children. Almost one-third of its population of 35 million is under the age of 15. The official adult illiteracy rate is low, at five per cent, while gender equality, at least as measured by certain indices, is advanced. Women make up some 70 per cent of the country’s lawyers, some 60 per cent of its judiciary and of its University students, as well as being prominent in the medical field.

So far, so good. So why does Algeria hang in the balance? Why should Europe’s future be affected by which way Algeria goes?

By evaluating the details of Algeria’s resources, one can discern what is wrong. There is an overwhelming dependence on fossil fuels, especially in terms of export earnings. It is an indication of the country’s failure to attract substantial direct foreign investment in the industrial sector. Not only. Tourism, which once thrived, is almost inexistent.

A second reason concerns the human resources. The country may have 46 universities but much of Algeria’s population lives on or near the coast. Sufficient job creation in such a concentrated area is difficult. The pressure on natural resources and infrastructure is great. There is a huge housing shortage.

These are all ingredients for periodic political instability, as we saw earlier this year before some political measures quelled the protests, at least momentarily.

Perhaps more than in any other country, serious political instability in Algeria could spill over its borders. The civil war in Algeria of the 1990s did have a direct effect on France. The earlier war of independence, in the 1950s, shook France’s very foundations. In earlier times, Spain was similarly exposed to events in Algeria.

It was with such a history and such issues in mind that, early last month, I paid a private visit to Algeria.

The immediate area surrounding Algiers’ airport is known for its insecurity and that is why I had arranged a pick-up to the hotel, which was situated 38 kilometres away. The road skirting the capital, Algiers, is a major, smooth bypass that connects all five North African states. The French connection is still very evident. The daily Air France flights outnumber all other European destinations put together.

Around the port area, one would be forgiven for thinking one was in Marseilles. The white buildings with mostly blue windows and doors rise up to eight storeys over arched pavements. In typical French fashion, the areas are divided in districts. Street signs are in Arabic and French. Nearly all the cars are either Peugeot or Renault.

However, the sheer beauty of the exclusive districts, with their huge stretches of sandy beaches, also betray the potential for trouble. In the former tourist hub on the outskirts of Algiers, all buildings except for the Sheraton have been converted into residences for senior army and police officers. It is patrolled both by day and by night.

The exclusivity and potential threats are marked by the many security checkpoints. In a country where there is a housing shortage, such privilege must be grating to many people. Particularly, when the alleged corruption of the various interest groups is said to be the main reason why substantial inward investment cannot be attracted. But this is not the only reason. Algeria is still a dangerous country. The greater part of the country is a no-go area for foreigners.

Although I was advised that it was not safe to venture into the old city, the Casbah, I could not resist the temptation to penetrate the part of the city dating back to the time of the Ottoman Empire. Set on a hill, the streets resemble staircases. They are inclined, narrow, winding, cobbled and delusive. This is where mosques mingle with the remnants of Turkish palaces. I was struck, however, by the complete absence of any policemen.

Eventually, as I was descending one of these narrow parts, something touched my neck. Instinctively I span around. Luckily my elbow connected and I heard a crunch. Scrambling up the narrow steps was a man holding part of my gold chain. Briefly we stared at each other. Almost instantaneously, together with three other companions, he disappeared in the labyrinth of the Casbah.

Of course, it could have been worse. But the incident took a curious turn when I was directed to a police station. I was informed that as Friday was their holy day the officer responsible for filing such reports was never available on this day. The police officer appeared completely baffled by my remark that Ali Baba’s 40 thieves had little to worry about as long as they carried out their trade on a Friday.

Dr Attard Montalto is a Labour member of the European Parliament.