Lawrence Gonzi is in a pickle. He generally wears a smile and will continue to do so through the summer. But it’s going to be a long and hot one for him, especially if the vote on the divorce Bill does not take place by mid-July, as scheduled. His rallying speech to the national council yesterday cannot even paper over the cracks.
The two main ones are on everybody’s lips, for one reason or another. The Prime Minister, for instance, survived a motion of censorship by the opposition on ministerial pay without really having a majority. Two MPs – Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando and Jesmond Mugliett – clearly voted against their true feelings. They as much as said so.
A third – Jean Pierre Farrugia – who has been the most eloquent and severest critic of the way the ministerial remuneration was hiked, extensively and for a long time secretly – clearly voted with the government out of decent loyalty. And these are just three who have worn their heart on their sleeves. Others too have been critical, without putting their vote on the line.
As a matter of fact it is hard to find anyone who agrees with the way the ministerial pay deal was cut. In time I rather suspect the Auditor General too will have something to say about it, given that the MP’s salary the Cabinet gave itself did not come out of a clearly identifiable vote of expenditure.
The Prime Minister won the vote but lost more than the argument. On a wide basis, he lost respect. Neither did yesterday’s show of eventual solidarity do away with the fracas of the divorce legislation issue. The Nationalist parliamentary group, split as it is between conscience and democratic obligation, remains without essential leadership by its leader. On his part Dr Gonzi is in the unenviable position of having a metaphorical monkey on his back.
Eddie Fenech Adami’s pressure on him is relentless. The article by the former PN leader in yesterday’s Sunday Times was timed to perfection. The pressure on Dr Gonzi is even more remarkable than Dr Fenech Adami’s disregard for the people’s will as expressed in the referendum.
The saga will not end once the vote is taken. One way or another it will remain a dark cloud on Dr Gonzi. If he votes in favour of the Bill on the second reading – should a vote be called – he will have to live with the disdain of the conservative group in his party, symbolised in the person of Dr Fenech Adami. If he abstains, he’ll be classified as a political chicken, given that he is the leader. If he votes no, he will lose his moral right to remain Prime Minister.
It is not surprising that diehard Nationalists are saying, not so privately, that it is time for Dr Gonzi to go. That the party will at least have some chance of being re-elected if he is succeeded by a younger and fresher face now.
Meanwhile there is the business community. It is openly saying, and even telling foreign diplomats, that there is no real leadership at present. What with ministerial salaries and the divorce issues, where is the Prime Minister, they ask. He, on his part, said publicly that he has a country to run, but fact is he is not being allowed to do it.
The Prime Minister’s political life is in disarray because his party is in shambles and he is not showing the type of leadership required to end it. For all that, he will survive. In Malta leaders are only changed after they lose elections – if that. It is unlikely that it will be different in Dr Gonzi’s case.
And he will hope that, with the divorce legislation out of the way and ministerial salaries a dulling memory, he will have a chance to rebuild and regain support.
As always, time will tell. The general election is still almost two years away. No one in the PN will want Lawrence to call it earlier. The problem will be if there is more dissidence in the meanwhile. Which is not too improbable. Dr Gonzi has challenges to deal with lasting well beyond the coming long, hot summer.