At 10.30 a.m. last Sunday, only half an hour after the sorting of votes started, those like myself who were present at the counting hall were given the first indications of a victory for the Yes camp. By 11 a.m. the picture became clearer. The samples confirmed the initial indications that the margin of the Yes win was wider than one was expecting. The final outcome is now known and, unlike other referenda, the result is not contested. This is probably the most positive thing about this electoral exercise.
Why did the Maltese electorate return this result? What were the factors which may have contributed to this result? What are the consequences of this result for the political parties? I will attempt to answer these questions by looking at some numbers.
By Maltese standards, the turnout was very low. At 72 per cent, last Saturday’s was the lowest turnout in national elections in the last 50 years. Why, one may ask? Was the electorate not interested in the issue? There are a number of possible explanations for this. Saturday’s referendum was extraordinary because it was the first referendum which had civil rather than political implications. It was the first electoral exercise in which the two main political parties did not participate directly. Mass meetings normally organised in general elections and referenda campaigns were absent this time. Though their respective party leaders pronounced themselves for and against divorce, most MPs remained silent during the campaign. The lack of parties’ direct involvement in the campaign and mobilisation of voters may have affected turnout.
Throughout the campaign it has been said that, although the two parties had a declared (PN) and undeclared (PL) position on the issue of divorce, the divide on the matter was across rather than along party lines. Last Saturday’s result, however, shows that while, the Labour leaning districts returned a strong Yes vote, only three traditional Nationalist districts returned a No vote. The second, third, fourth and fifth districts returned a Yes vote almost in the same proportions as they generally do in a general election for the PL. On the other hand, the Nationalist strongholds, such as the ninth and 10th districts, returned a Yes vote in spite of the PN declaring itself against divorce. This leads me to conclude that, bar a few exceptions, the Labour supporters voted in line with their party leader who campaigned for a Yes vote. On the other hand the Nationalist vote was divided on this issue.
The PN is a coalition of conservatives and liberals. The conservative Nationalists voted against divorce while the liberals voted in favour. Saturday’s vote clearly demonstrated that there is a concentration of liberal Nationalists in the ninth, 10th and 12th districts, hence the Yes vote in these localities. In spite of voting against their party line, the liberals are still convinced Nationalists and their natural home remains the PN. Most would tend to vote PN on the PN’s proven liberal track record, particularly on economic issues, however the PN would do well to draw lessons from the strong showing of liberal voters in its traditional strongholds.
The Gozitan vote was predicted from day one of the campaign. The 68 per cent who voted against divorce are not all Nationalist as the PN’s vote in Gozo in the last general election was only 55 per cent. It appears therefore that unlike Malta a substantial chunk of Labour voters in rural Gozo voted No. The Church is an important element for many Gozitans, and the bishops’ and Church’s instructions to their faithful seem to have found more fertile ground in our sister island than they have found in the mainland.
The media and the internet too played an important role during the campaign. The blogs on the internet were definitely won by those in favour of divorce. This medium is proving to be an important tool for campaigning and the two parties will, in the coming months, seek ways to maximise their potential in the run-up to the next general election. Apart from the PN’s media which was squarely behind the No camp, the rest of the media were all behind the Yes movement.
In this referendum we have once again witnessed the power of the media and the internet. The next general election may be two years away but the battle to win over the media’s support begins now. I dare say that the party which manages to win the media’s support is likely to win the next general election.