With six days to go before people say ‘yes’ or ‘no’ for divorce, the outcome will depend on how the undecided will vote. Kurt Sansone analyses the results of The Sunday Times survey.

If you are a married woman aged 30, the likelihood is that you have still not made up your mind on where to pencil in the ‘X’ on the ballot paper in Saturday’s divorce referendum.

And if you did not vote in the last general election or voted for the Nationalist Party, the likelihood of you still being undecided on divorce is higher.

These are generalisations, but according to a survey commissioned by The Sunday Times they form part of a substantive 20 per cent who do not know how they will vote on divorce.

It is this group of undecided voters that has increased in size by 11 percentage points since February that holds the key to where the pendulum will sway on Saturday.

A survey conducted by this newspaper three months ago had asked respondents a specific question on whether they agreed with divorce after four years separation, similar to the one people will be voting on in the referendum. At the time nine per cent were undecided.

A higher number of undecided people as the campaign draws to a close elicits the question as to whether the pro and anti divorce camps were effective in their strategy to convince voters of their cause.

The survey published today does not capture the reasons people are undecided, but it does give an indication of the composition of this group.

An absolute majority of undecided voters (51 per cent) are women, which could be good news for the ‘no’ camp given that a deeper analysis of female respondents shows that women are slightly more inclined to be anti-divorce – 39 per cent against versus 38 per cent in favour.

This contrasts with men, who are predominantly in favour of divorce. In fact, 45 per cent of men will vote ‘yes’, 35 per cent ‘no’, and 20 per cent are still undecided.

A curious factor emerges when the survey results are analysed by age group. While those aged between 25 and 34 have the strongest disposition among all age groups in favour of divorce – 55 per cent in this group say they will vote ‘yes’ – they are also the most undecided.

While only 18 per cent of people aged between 25 and 34 are against divorce, 27 per cent do not know how they will vote, making up the largest portion of undecided voters.

This may be good news for the ‘yes’ camp given the pro-divorce disposition of this age group but it also has to be viewed against the composition of those aged between 18 and 24, where those against divorce hold sway.

In fact, 40 per cent of those aged 18 to 24 are against divorce, 36 per cent in favour and 22 per cent undecided.

What could possibly be a key concern for the pro and anti-divorce camps is that 51 per cent of undecided voters do not know the referendum question.

However, 56 per cent felt well informed to vote on the issue.

A breakdown of undecided voters according to political allegiance shows that 20 per cent either did not vote at the last general election or were not eligible to vote.

These are followed closely by PN supporters, who make up 19 per cent of undecided voters. On the other hand, Labour supporters make up 15 per cent of undecided voters.

While the PN has taken an official stand against divorce, the Labour Party has no stand at all even though its leader has expressed himself in favour. Both political parties have given their MPs a free vote on the issue.

However, party allegiance seems to hold little sway on how people are expected to vote. When asked what factors affected their decision on divorce, only two per cent cited advice from the leader of the party they supported and 84 per cent said their party’s stand on divorce had no influence on how they would vote in the next general election.

Like the February survey, a vast majority (87 per cent) will be voting according to their conscience or personal beliefs. Of these, 43 per cent are in favour of divorce while 20 per cent are undecided.

Instructions by the Church are a determining factor for 11 per cent of respondents, which represents a drop of almost 10 percentage points since February. Of these, 68 per cent are against divorce and 20 per cent undecided.

Methodology

The survey was commissioned by The Sunday Times and conducted by Misco International Ltd. The survey randomly polled 500 respondents and was conducted by telephone between May 12 and 14. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 per cent.

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