TV show survey on divorce reveals 40 per cent undecided

Both camps of the divorce debate have a lot of convincing to do as 40 per cent of respondents to a Xarabank survey are still undecided how to vote in next Saturday’s divorce referendum.

The 300 respondents were asked how they intend to vote, with 28.3 per cent saying they will vote in favour, 25 per cent saying they will vote against and 6.7 saying they will not vote.

The results have a margin of error of 5.7 per cent.

The findings show a marked drop from a similar survey carried out last October, when respondents were asked how they would vote in the referendum question. Then, 56.3 per cent said they would vote yes, 31.7 per cent no and 1.3 per cent would not vote. The undecided represented 10.7 per cent of respondents.

When taking party sympathies into account, the statistics make for interesting reading.

Those who voted Labour in the last election are most likely to vote in favour, with 52.3 per cent saying they will vote yes, 10.8 saying they will vote no and 32.3 per cent being undecided. This, however, is still lower than the October statistics, where 73.9 per cent of Labour voters had said they would vote yes.

Meanwhile, Nationalist voters (previously 47.4 per cent in favour and 40.8 against) moved closer to the anti-divorce party line, with 44.8 per cent saying they will vote no and 24.1 per cent saying they will vote yes. Indecision in the blue camp rose to 23 per cent from 9.2.

Unsurprisingly, 60.9 per cent of people who said they attended Mass daily said they planned to vote against the introduction of divorce, 4.3 per cent would vote yes and 34.8 per cent are still undecided. Similarly, 48.7 per cent of those who attended Mass more than once a week will vote no (with 33.3 per cent undecided).

Those who said they fulfilled their weekly religious obligation were mostly undecided, with 49.2 saying they did not know. Twenty-eight per cent of this cohort said they would vote yes and 15.2 per cent said they would vote no.

Looking at the statistics according to marital status, it emerges that those most likely to benefit from divorce legislation will vote in favour – 75 per cent of those cohabiting will vote yes and 25 per cent will not vote.

Similarly, 62.5 per cent of separated people said they would vote in favour, 25 per cent would vote against and 12.5 per cent were undecided. Forty-three per cent of married people were undecided while 29.2 per cent were against divorce, a big shift from the October survey, where 53.5 per cent had said they would vote in favour.

The highest amount of yes votes comes from the 18-25 age group with 41.9 per cent but an equal percentage said they did not know how they would be voting. The second biggest group of undecided voters were in the 36-50 age range, while 42 per cent of those over 65 said they would vote no, with 22 per cent would vote yes and 32 per cent were undecided.

The Sunday Times will be publishing the results of a survey on the divorce referendum tomorrow.