Creating a climate for change

Extreme weather events such as the recent floods of biblical proportions in Australia are a stark reminder of a changing climate and yet people will “only care if they have to pay a price”, according to a leading scientist.

Climatologist Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, the vice chair of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is adamant that people will start to care enough to address the causes of climate change when a price tag is put on carbon emissions.

“An important element to address climate change is to put a price on the generation of carbon. Except for a few idealists, people only care when they have to pay a price for their actions,” Prof. Ypersele says.

A price on carbon emissions would not only prompt people to use energy efficiently, he argues, but also make renewable energy sources comparatively less expensive than fossil fuels.

Renewable energy sources, such as the sun and wind, do not produce harmful carbon but they also come with their challenges. Unlike fossil-fuelled power plants that produce a constant supply of energy, they can be unstable. Wind turbines may stop turning if the wind is not strong enough and solar panels may stop producing energy if the sun is blocked by clouds.

Prof. Ypersele says a key development will be proper integration into the energy grid of renewable sources. “If you have less wind in Denmark it could be compensated by more sunshine in Spain. If everything is linked to a single energy system, it will make integration of renewable sources much easier.”

Climate change has been on the world’s agenda for more than two decades but it is only in the last two years that scepticism by some key players about its existence has given way to a general realisation that it is real and needs addressing. A major convert in recent years has been the US, partly because of a change in administration, but Prof. Ypersele points to a number of things that may have contributed to the global change of heart.

He leafs through a document drawn up by former University rector Prof. Roger Ellul Micallef in 1992. It speaks about health problems in Malta associated with climate change.

“Climate change is not a new problem in scientific circles and this document proves that even in Malta scientists were already discussing its implications almost 20 years ago. It was always very clear in the scientific community that climate change would happen and it would have consequences. As time passed the picture became clearer and today the link between greenhouse gases released by human activity and global warming is beyond doubt.”

However, the wider acceptance today of climate change has not given way to drastic mitigation measures that reflect how big the problem is. Environmentalists had slammed the conclusions of the high-profile UN Copenhagen climate change conference in 2009, accusing heads of state of not doing enough to combat climate change. The summit was followed a year later by another one in Cancun, Mexico, and yet many decried the agreed targets as still not being enough.

However, Prof. Ypersele believes that in 20 years’ time the Copenhagen and Cancun summits will be considered to be “a historical turning point”.

“The UN climate change convention 19 years ago had not set limits but in Copenhagen world leaders committed themselves not to allow global warming to surpass a global average increase of two degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period.”

The challenge to meet the agreed target is very steep and requires a concerted effort to reduce greenhouse emissions by more than 50 per cent, but Prof. Ypersele believes the situation also offers opportunities. “Redesigning buildings to make them more energy efficient or installing cleaner technology in cars can be opportunities for job creation.”

The risk with issues like global warming is that people may feel divorced from the debate, leading them to believe decisions are for others to take.

However, Prof. Ypersele insists that even ordinary citizens have a contribution to make. Just as human activity emitted 300 billion tonnes of carbon since the pre-industrial period, causing today’s problems, every kilogram saved now will help mitigate future problems.

Prof. Ypersele will be delivering a lecture at the Old University in Valletta today at 6 p.m. with the theme Climate Change: Challenge or Opportunity.

ksansone@timesofmalta.com