Increasing pressure on Gaddafi

The stalemate in Libya persisted last week, despite an onslaught by Gaddafi loyalists, and the international community continued to increase pressure on Muammar Gaddafi and his regime.

France officially recognised the Libyan opposition as the legitimate representatives of the Libyan people; the EU imposed additional sanctions on the Libyan regime; the European Parliament voted in favour of a (non-binding) resolution calling for the imposition of a no-fly zone over Libya; the six Arab Gulf states declared the Gaddafi regime illegitimate; the US announced it is to send civilian humanitarian aid teams into opposition-controlled eastern Libya; and two rebel Libyan leaders addressed the European Parliament.

Significantly, Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi announced that Libyan Prime Minister Mahmudi Bagdadi and deputy foreign minister Mohammed Taher Siyala – who met Dr Gonzi for talks in Malta last Wednesday – had asked Malta to mediate in this crisis, and this request was rejected.

Dr Gonzi, who has performed very well throughout this whole episode, and who deserves praise for his handling of a very delicate situation, was right to refuse the Libyan government’s appeal.

He pointed out that in such circumstances, there is no room for mediation, the Libyan government “must listen to the wishes of its people” and the violence must stop.

Dr Gonzi also revealed that Malta refused a Libyan suggestion that three captured Dutch marines be exchanged for the two Libyan fighter jet pilots in Malta.

Malta insisted that the marines should be released without any conditions, which is, in fact, what happened. Malta was instrumental in the release of these marines, and again, Dr Gonzi deserves credit for this.

Libya’s plea for mediation is perhaps an indication that Gaddafi is indeed feeling the pressure. He is, after all, completely isolated internationally, three quarters of his country is in the hands of the opposition, and his military has made only modest gains against poorly trained rebels who have far less sophisticated weaponry.

Gaddafi also sent an envoy to Greece and Portugal, presumably to ask for some sort of mediation, but Portuguese Foreign Minister Luis Amado told journalists in Brussels that he welcomed the emissary with the message that the Gaddafi regime was finished.

“The message I sent was that the Gaddafi regime in our view is over, its legitimacy is over,” he said.

While the international community has made it clear it can no longer deal with Gaddafi, the Libyan leader has shown no sign of wanting to step down, even if he is feeling under siege.

He has intensified his efforts at consolidating his hold over the Tripoli area and his home town of Sirte, as well as bombing the rebel-held towns of Ras Lanuf, a strategic oil port, and Zawiya, which is close to Tripoli.

Last week’s declaration made by the US Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing in Washington that Gaddafi’s regime is likely to “prevail” in the battle against rebel forces, because it is better armed, certainly raised some eyebrows within the global community.

“We believe that Gaddafi is in this for the long haul. I don’t think he has any intention, despite some of the press speculation to the contrary, of leaving.

“From all evidence that we have, which I’ll be prepared to discuss in a closed session, he appears to be hunkering down for the duration,” Clapper said.

His words were probably inten­ded to exert pressure on the international community to strengthen its resolve against Gaddafi.

If the dictator’s militias and the military around him remain loyal, and if the regime continues to use air strikes and mercenaries against the rebels, then I doubt Tripoli will fall to the opposition.

At best, we can expect some sort of de facto partition of Libya, which is in nobody’s interest and which will resolve nothing.

So it is clear that some sort of international military action to support the Libyan people is necessary.

We can forget about foreign troops being sent to fight in Libya – US Defence Secretary Robert Gates has already ruled this out – and anyway, it is not the right thing to do; the rebels don’t want this type of help and Gaddafi would use this as a rallying cry against an invasion by the West.

Furthermore, after Iraq and Afghanistan, there is no appetite in the West to send troops to yet another Muslim country.

Besides sending humanitarian aid to Libya, perhaps imposing further sanctions and preparing a contingency plan to help this country once the regime is toppled, the imposition of a no-fly zone is the one option which many believe could really tip the balance in favour of the rebels.

This would prevent air strikes by Gaddafi against rebels and civilians and put a stop to the transport of African mercenaries into Libya.

The UK and France are actively pushing for this at the UN Security Council, Nato and the EU. The US would probably support this, but is insisting, rightly so, on a UN resolution authorising it.

The problem, as usual, lies in getting Chinese and Russian support on the UN Security Council for a no-fly zone, so I hope an intensive diplomatic effort is being made to persuade Beijing and Moscow to agree to this.

Even if the UN does agree to a no-fly zone, it is imperative that this is enforced not only by Nato countries, but by as many nations as possible, especially by Arab League member states.

This is an opportunity for Arab countries to really stand up and be counted, and to show solidarity with their Libyan brothers in time of need.

A no-fly zone should not, and must not, be interpreted as a Western plot against Libya, which it isn’t.