Heady days laced with instability

Anyone who thought change starts as relatively easily as it did in Tunisia and Egypt, soon had a second think coming. The fire that swept the two countries after it was lit by a single spark in Tunisia inevitably reached neighbouring Libya. It is raging fiercely there as well. And, sad for the Libyan people and for the whole region, us included, there is no telling how or how soon it will end.

Not that it has ended in the first two countries. The difference between them and Libya is that the armed forces opted not to intervene to deter their civilian brethren by slaughtering them in the name of the regime. So far it has been another matter in Libya. Part of the armed forces has defected to the rebels, and a number of officers are forming an important part of the incipient leadership in eastern regions, which have won and so far retain control of a number of strategic locations.

Nevertheless, the armed forces in the Tripoli area remain on the side of Gaddafi (perhaps loyal would be the wrong word to use). Together with the mercenaries he has hired and with the command over the country’s main military assets, the military can help the Gaddafi family retain control of Tripoli and also mount counter attacks on the areas taken over by the freedom fighters.

Those who were quick to write off the Gaddafi regime have to rethink. To say that it should go is one thing, to expect it to be defeated with the apparent ease Beni Ali in Tunisia and Mubarak in Egypt were forced out is another. Even in these two countries, democracy as we know it is not going to sprout up overnight.I confirmed that impression during a short visit to Tunisia in mid-week. I felt little tension in a mix of evidence of the uprising, its early repercussions and the way people are going about their business. Evidence of what was very tense barely three weeks ago lay in coming upon a tank at a corner of one of the chic districts of Tunis, only metres away from the restaurant we were going to.

It did not seem dangerous – the few soldiers around it were lounging by it, hardly a visible threat to anyone. But it was an incongruous sight, eerie even. Then we walked into the restaurant, one of the largest and most up-market in Tunis. And it was jam-packed. The clientele evidently included a large number of expatriates, but the fact that they were there was a clear statement in itself.On the way back to a busy hotel, we encountered an armoured track, idle at another corner. The state of alert is not over, though there were far fewer policemen about than in the days of Ben Ali. Attitudes have changed, however. I found a new militancy in the country’s main union, though one that recognised Tunisia’s need to retain its substantial foreign direct investment.

The way the union, an important player in the coming change, is looking to the future is important. In time there will be elections, though it is not going to happen overnight, with a constituent assembly set to be in place by July 24, with much work to be done after that. But will a strong party emerge, I asked? No, was the blunt answer, topped with a clear desire that never again would the scene be dominated by one party. The preference is for fragmentation. The prospect of shifting coalitions in a country which does not have the democratic infrastructure for it does not suggest early stability will return. But neither does it signal new violent upheaval.

The situation in Egypt, I tend to think, is broadly similar. Not so, by any means, in Libya. The spectre of civil war, or a longish period with the country under two ruling set-ups, one of them being the Gaddafi family, does not suggest an early return to normality. There tanks and armoured cars will not be simply idling at corners while social and economic activity resumed at a leisurely pace.

There is also the matter of international sanctions and how these might affect us, particularly if they do not distinguish between the Gaddafi regime and the Libyan state.

Democracy might be in the air but, till it really arrives, the future threatens.