Divorce: The devil is in the detail

Most people say they are informed about divorce and want their will as expressed in a referendum to be respected by Parliament. Kurt Sansone analyses the results of a survey commissioned by The Sunday Times.

Nationalist Party supporters are more inclined to be against divorce, according to a survey conducted by Misco International for The Sunday Times, which could explain one of the reasons for the internal difficulty faced by the party after one of its own presented a Private Member’s Bill.

The survey shows that 50 per cent of those who voted for the PN in the last general election are against divorce while 39 per cent are in favour. The rest (11 per cent) are undecided.

The PN may have reflected the predominant mood among its supporters by officially coming out against divorce but by no means is the scenario clear cut.

Indeed, the situation gets more complicated because support for divorce among PN voters rises to 50 per cent when people are asked whether they agree with divorce after four years of separation and all mediation efforts have failed.

This represents a key element of the divorce Bill proposed by Nationalist backbencher Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando, which is co-sponsored by Labour MP Evarist Bartolo.

Even so, opposition to divorce remains high, with 45 per cent of Nationalists saying they would still vote ‘no’ in a referendum that asks a specific question.

The situation is completely different for the Labour Party, since 61 per cent of its supporters favour divorce as opposed to 28 per cent who are against.

Another 11 per cent are undecided.

When faced with a specific question in a referendum, support among Labourites swells to 77 per cent, while those against drop to 15 per cent.

Despite the figures showing clear support for divorce in the party’s rank and file the PL has not taken a stand on the issue. Both parties are allowing their MPs a free vote.

Whether the political parties take a stand or not on divorce has little bearing on how people will vote in the next general election.

While 83 per cent say that their party’s stand on the introduction of divorce will not influence how they vote in an election, eight per cent say it will. From those who will be influenced, 70 per cent are against divorce.

People are also uninfluenced by what political party leaders say on divorce as the single most important factor influencing their decision is their conscience.

While only one per cent would be influenced by advice given by the political leader they support, 81 per cent identify their conscience as an influencing factor.

In August last year, a similar survey found that 75 per cent said their conscience would influence their decision on divorce.

Of those who say conscience would be their guiding light, 47 per cent favour divorce as opposed to 37 per cent who are against. However, the number of those in favour rises to 64 per cent when asked whether they agree with divorce on condition it be allowed after four years of separation.

Church instructions would influence the decision of 20 per cent of people, which is one percentage point higher than similar findings in August. Of these, seven per cent favour divorce, a number that climbs to 20 per cent when the specific referendum question is asked.

It is evident that the adage ‘the devil is in the detail’ may well be a significant factor in the divorce debate that is inching towards a referendum to be held in May.

People are generally more inclined to favour divorce if it is linked to certain conditions like the four-year time lapse in Dr Pullicino Orlando’s Bill.

People clearly want the decision to be taken in a referendum and for Parliament to respect the outcome whatever it may be.

Support for a referendum now stands at 71 per cent, which is 13 percentage points higher than in August last year.

People’s minds are also clear about when a referendum should be held: an absolute majority (54 per cent) believe this should be before Parliament votes on the law.

Another 20 per cent agree that a referendum should be held after the 69 MPs vote on a divorce law, while 17 per cent say it makes no difference for them when a referendum is held.

In any case, 88 per cent believe Parliament should abide by the referendum result, a situation that could potentially put MPs in a quandary if the result con­­flicts with their own conscience.

Most respondents also have no qualms about their level of information on divorce, with 64 per cent saying they feel sufficiently well informed to vote on the issue, while 32 per cent admit they were not sufficiently informed.

Methodology

The survey was commissioned by The Sunday Times and conducted by Misco International Ltd. The survey randomly polled 500 respondents and was conducted by telephone between February 21 and 23. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 per cent. Some figures may not add to 100 because of rounding.