Looking beyond the abyss

Is military intervention in Libya a good idea? And what might the country look like if the present regime falls? Kurt Sansone and Claudia Calleja got some analysis from the experts.

An international military intervention to oust Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi would be “deeply resented” by Libyans, experts warn.

Anthropologist Ranier Fsadni, who specialises in studies of the contemporary Arab world at the University of Malta, said Libyans might suspect that military intervention would be an attempt to turn their country into another Iraq.

“The Libyan opposition has already said it does not desire such help. I would hope this scenario is remote, even though some neo-conservative Americans have begun to clamour for military intervention,” Mr Fsadni said.

Talk of some form of military action has escalated a notch over recent days with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton saying all options should be on the table.

Her words came at the same time the US military decided to move warships closer to Libya and British Prime Minister David Cameron spoke of imposing a no-fly zone to prevent Libyan fighter jets from shooting on demonstrators.

But any such decision risks upsetting the international right of sovereign states to “map out their own destiny”, according to Mediterranean international relations analyst Stephen Calleya, who heads the Mediterranean Academy of Diplomatic Studies.

“The Arab world spring is driven by people wanting to map out their own future, even if it comes at a high cost. Military intervention can undermine what is happening on the ground and influence people’s perceptions to the point of complicating things further,” Prof. Calleya said.

Recent history had shown, he added, it was much easier to intervene militarily but much more complicated to withdraw.

As Col Gaddafi plays out what could possibly be his last act of defiance, questions have started to be asked about a post-Gaddafi Libya.

The risk of the country splitting up because of tribal infighting has been raised by Col Gaddafi’s son, Saif Al-Islam. It may have been a strategy by the regime to instil fear in protestors but similar warnings have also been sounded by western leaders, including Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi.

It may be too early at this stage to map out what a post-Gaddafi Libya will look like, according to Prof. Calleya, but oil could avoid fragmentation.

“Splitting up the country would mean a loss of Libya’s comparative economic advantage because of oil, which can serve as a uniting factor,” he noted.

He said it was in the interest of all Libyans to put together a system of governance that gave them what they lacked in terms of respect for human rights and rule of law.

In Mr Fsadni’s view, how things develop depends on decisions that still have to be taken. It also depends on how many towns have fallen into the hands of the opposition in the western part of the country where Tripoli is situated.

Mr Fsadni posited three possible scenarios that may unfold in a post-revolution Libya.

One of them sees Col Gaddafi defeated by the opposition, a situation that could lead to a fragmented country if people of western Libya begin to fear their future is compromised by a power shift to the east.

“With an armed population, the country could descend into further turmoil. A scenario of regional polarisation or fragmentation is feared by many people in western Libya, who make explicit comparisons to Afghanistan, Somalia and Iraq,” Mr Fsadni said.

However, he noted that, according to reports, many western Libyan localities in opposition hands have placed themselves nominally under the governing council based in Benghazi. This could lead to a second scenario, which would see Col Gaddafi ousted by the opposition and the country unified under a representative government.

Mr Fsadni said a post-Gaddafi Libya in these circumstances would face many challenges of a short and long-term nature. “Tribes would be important for the maintenance of peace, local governance and social solidarity, particularly if rationing of food and medical supplies is needed during the transition. In the longer term, Libyans will have the challenge of showing the world it is possible to build a durable, constitutional, representative democracy in a country with over 90 per cent of its revenues stemming from oil,” he said.

However, history also points towards the possibility of a third outcome that sees Col Gaddafi holding on to Tripoli and using it as a base to regain control over the western part of the country.

According to Mr Fsadni, such a feat was managed by both the Ottomans in the mid-19th century and the Italians in the 1920s after having previously been driven back to the coast, although the international, domestic and economic circumstances were different.

“Following declarations of the international community, it is difficult to envisage Col Gaddafi being permitted to complete a national comeback,” he said.