The revolt in the Arab world has now spread to Libya and it looks like Muammar Gaddafi’s days are numbered.

As I write this article Gaddafi is still in control, but the situation is extremely fluid. The eastern part of the country is under the control of the rebels, a large number of senior Libyan ambassadors and ministers have resigned in protest against the brutal suppression by the regime of the demonstrators and large chunks of the army have joined the revolution.

The defection to Egypt of Gaddafi’s cousin and close adviser, Ahmed Gaddaf al-Dam, is also evidence that Gaddafi is losing ground.

Gaddafi has reacted to the protests in an absolutely shocking and horrendous manner (but not particularly surprising), living up to his reputation as the Middle East’s worst tyrant at the helm of an absolutely vicious regime.

The use of air strikes, live ammunition, machine guns and heavy military equipment such as anti-tank missiles to crush any resistance puts Gaddafi in the same league as dictators such as Saddam Hussein, which means Libya needs all the help it can get to remove this tyrant.

According to Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini, 1,000 people have been killed as a result of the Libyan government’s crackdown, which gives us an indication of just how terrible the situation is.

Gaddafi’s televised speech to the country, in which he effectively declared war on his own people, as well as the declaration by his son Seif al-Islam that his father would “fight until the last man, the last woman, the last bullet” shows that the Libyan dictator has no intention of giving up power or scaling down his repression of the revolt.

And the fact that Gaddafi has resorted to the despicable act of using mercenaries from sub-Sahara Africa to kill his own people is also an indication of just how desperate – and brutal – this dictator is.

Gaddafi’s onslaught has been condemned by the UN Security Council, the EU, the Arab League – which suspended Libya from the organisation – and the Organisation of Islamic Conference, but in such a situation and when dealing with somebody like Gaddafi, mere condemnations are not enough and more will need to be done to help the Libyan people.

Initially, many countries, including Malta (and the US), were cautious in their criticism of the suppression taking place in Libya, principally because of the presence in the country of so many of their nationals.

This stance is understandable to a certain extent when dealing with somebody as unpredictable as Gaddafi, and one has to perform a fine balancing act between showing solidarity with the Libyan people – who are passing through an absolutely horrendous time – and safeguarding the lives of one’s fellow nationals still stuck in Libya.

There is now the need, however, for the international community to go beyond mere condemnations. Innocent civilians are being massacred in Libya simply because they are demanding freedom and democracy.

Sanctions and a no-fly zone need to be imposed on Libya by the UN and the EU. Furthermore, the international community must make it very clear that those responsible for these crimes against humanity in Libya will be charged before the International Criminal Court.

These measures will not change Gaddafi’s behaviour, but they could very well convince his ministers and the remaining loyal elements in the military to turn on him. Few people in Libya want to go back to the days of sanctions, so such measures could well be the final catalyst which will lead to Gaddafi’s ouster.

The UN Security Council will probably be reluctant to impose such sanctions because of the usual Chinese and Russian objections, but even so, if the EU and the US impose their own sanctions this will probably have the desired effect.

I have no doubt Gaddafi’s regime is disintegrating and it is important that the EU prepares a plan to help Libya build free political and legal institutions.

The problem with Libya is that all power rests with Gaddafi, his family and the ruling elite and there is no obvious unifying force or personality to take over the country.

Political parties, civil society, trade unions, opposition movements and an independent judiciary are non-existent.

Unlike in neighbouring Tunisia and Egypt, the army is weak and is not part of the government structure, which is why the military can’t simply tell Gaddafi to step down.

Gaddafi has, in fact, used loyal militias and the secret police to maintain his power.

So the transition to a post-Gaddafi era will be difficult and will be further complicated by the tribal power structures that exist in the country.

Gaddafi has long favoured his own Gathathfa tribe, many of who are present in the military and various militias, and who stand to lose most from this revolution.

A number of tribal leaders have already said they support the people against Gaddafi, and hopefully they will be able to unite – and not fight each other – after Gaddafi goes.

The worst case scenario is of course that Libya will become a failed state, be engulfed in civil war or divide in two, which will be disastrous not only for Libya but also for countries like Malta, which will have to deal with ahuge wave of refugees fleeing the country.

I think such a picture is an exaggeration, but the possibility of an exodus of refugees is likely, and Malta is right to insist on burden-sharing with the EU.