The right and clever thing to do

Malta’s cosying up to Muammar Gaddafi over the decades follows a familiar pattern in international relations. A small, militarily weak country doing what is necessary to protect its interests in the face of a large, menacing neighbour.

There’s even a name for it – Finlandisation, coined with reference to the conditioning of Finland’s Cold War policies because of its proximity to the Soviet Union.

Certainly, at some points in our history, we seem to have taken this approach painfully and unattractively far – Gaddafi addressing local mass meetings, or compulsory Arabic in our schools. But beyond these overcompensations there was a clear, pragmatic logic at work. Like him or not he was in charge; we were in no position to change him, so we had to make the best of things.

Seen in this light, sensitively managing the inevitable partial distancing from Libya as we acceded to the EU was extremely tricky. Libya was irritated at the introduction of visas for example, both as a measure in its own right and because it symbolised the deeper shift that was undeniably going on.

That strategic shift was daunting at the time, but absolutely correct and necessary. Gaddafi’s main “value” to us was in maintaining stability. Now that that stability has spectacularly blown up in all our faces, our membership of the European Union means that we are not alone to face the mess we now see unfolding so painfully close to our shores.

So what should we do now? The government is clearly grappling with this difficult question. At an ethical, moral level there can only be one answer: clearly, and loudly, repudiate Gaddafi and his remaining rump of a regime, and unequivocally declare Malta to be on the side of the Libyan people and their legitimate aspirations for freedom.

That would certainly be very satisfying, but while foreign policy should and must be informed by ethics and morals, it must also look to power. The instinct would be to hedge our bets as we seem to be doing. Gaddafi is not gone yet; he is a nasty, vindictive man, and he will never forget it if we turn on him now.

I would argue that this is the wrong calculation to make, even if one takes a hard realist view of what is happening.

There is no way back for Gaddafi as ruler of all Libya. He may linger on for some time; he may even extend the small patches of territory where he still maintains a measure of control. But it is difficult to imagine him being allowed by the international community, for example, to retake control of the oil reserves in the country’s East. Even if he does manage to restore ‘stability’ to some part of Libya, there will never be the cosy business arrangements with him we have had before now.

Following his crimes against humanity in the past few days, if he survives he will forever be an international pariah, with sanctions against him that we will be bound to follow. The West has been stung by criticism that it has been too close to Arab dictators and too far from their people. Gaddafi has clearly defined himself as the nastiest dictator of the lot, and international leaders will be queuing up to show how ready they are to act against him.

And all this assumes that Gaddafi does somehow survive. His chances of doing so are not particularly bright. Hard though it is for us to imagine, we are likely to see a new, post-Gaddafi Libya emerging, dominated by people with one thing in common – a visceral hatred for all he stands for.

The Libyan people understand that we had to have good relations with Gaddafi when he was in power – just like they had to pretend they were his loyal subjects. But now that they have had the courage to overthrow his armies with their bare hands, things have changed.

There can be no fence sitting here. We must be on the right side of history.

Reject Gaddafi and his crimes against humanity. Declare Malta to be on the side of the Libyan people and act that way, for example by pressing for sanctions and other measures that penalise him and his regime but not the Libyan people.

We need to do this now, in these few days while it still matters. If we simply have to fall into line later on we might be paying the cost for years to come.

This is not just the right thing for Malta to do – though it is certainly that. It is also the clever thing to do.