For decades Muammar Gaddafi has relied on political and tribal rivalries to rule over Libya, but traditional power structures are crumbling as a popular uprising gains momentum, analysts say.

Col. Gaddafi, who came to power in 1969, quickly established himself as a belligerent and unpredictable leader, erasing longstanding power structures and maintaining personal control through an omnipresent security apparatus.

In 1977, he declared Libya a jamihiriya, an alternative to capitalism and socialism that, in theory, vested power directly in the people.

But in reality Col. Gaddafi has exercised absolute control, with no political parties and only cosmetic civil society groups, relying on powerful revolutionary committees and members of his Gadafa tribe to crush dissent.

Members of the revolutionary committees, the closest thing to a ruling party, are hand-picked from different Libya tribes based on loyalty with no formal system of membership.

Col. Gaddafi has also played tribes against each other, using a combination of coercion and cooptation to ensure no large alliances tip the balance of power against him.

Tribal affiliation has long played an important role in oil-rich Libya, providing social networks that help advance careers, social mobility and marriage. But their political influence is less clear-cut.

“With urbanisation and development, tribal leaders have less influence on their tribe members,” said Mohamed Fadel, an independent Libyan analyst based in London.

“Tribes function in the same ways as large families, and you can have political divisions within that family.”

The leader’s influential son Seif al-Islam warned that Libya could descend into “civil war”, implying that clashes that have killed hundreds in the past week were tribal in nature.

Revolt timeline

February 15-16:

Protests erupt in Libya’s second city of Benghazi, days after the resignation of president Hosni Mubarak in neighbouring Egypt.

Thursday, February 17:

At least eight deaths reported in and near Benghazi. Calls go out on the Internet site Facebook for a “Day of Rage” against Kadhafi’s regime.

Friday, February 18:

Clashes reported spreading outside Benghazi, where a radio station is burned down.

Saturday, February 19:

At least 12 killed as the army fires on a crowd in Benghazi. Clashes spread closer to Tripoli.

Sunday, February 20:

Protesters sack the headquarters of state television in Tripoli, and set government buildings on fire. The Libyan authorities announce the arrest of dozens of Arab nationals from a “network” that they say is aiming to destabilise Libya. In Cairo, Libya’s envoy to the Arab League says he has resigned to “join the revolution.”

Monday, February 21:

With Col. Gaddafi still silent, his son Seif al-Islam goes on TV to warn Libya faces civil war and “rivers of blood.” Gunfire is heard in the capital for the first time since protests began. A series of diplomats, including Tripoli’s ambassador to New Delhi and the deputy ambassador to the UN in New York, say they no longer support the regime.

Two Libyan fighter pilots land their jets in Malta and say they have defected after being ordered to attack protesters.

Late on Monday, Col. Gaddafi makes a brief appearance on state television to deny that he has fled the country.

Tuesday, February 22:

In a defiant speech on television, Kadhafi orders his forces to crush the uprising and vows to fight to the last. Benghazi is under the control of anti-regime demonstrators, as are Sirte, Tobruk in the east, as well as Misrata, Khoms, Tarhounah, Zenten, Al-Zawiya and Zouara, closer to the capital. Thousands of Egyptian and Tunisian nationals seek to escape from the violence, while several European states begin evacuating their nationals.

Holding an emergency summit in Cairo, the Arab League says it has barred Libya from attending its meetings until it responds to the protesters’ demands.

Wednesday, February 23:

Peru becomes the first nation to suspend diplomatic ties with Libya over the violence. The UN Human Rights Council says it was to hold a special session yesterdayto discuss the crisis. Italy reports that Libya’s eastern province of Cyrenaica, which includes Benghazi, is no longer under Col. Gaddafi’s control. All Libyan ports and terminals are temporarily closed, the CMA CGM shipping group says.

The French oil firm Total says it is “starting to suspend” some of its operations in Libya. World oil prices head rise further, with Brent crude trading at almost $108 per barrel in London.

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