At seven tomorrow morning the polling booths in Ireland open their doors for more than three million eligible voters to cast their preferences to elect 166 TDs (MPs) to form the 31st Dáil (Parliament). When the counting of votes starts on Saturday morning, I will be keenly following the process inside a counting centre in Dublin. My entry pass to the counting centre was facilitated by Irish Ambassador to Malta Jim Hennessy . It is not my first time experiencing the counting of votes in a general election, however, each count and result announcement has a story to tell and gives me the same thrill as my first such experience.

This election for the lower House came about 18 months before it was due and follows a period of political turmoil. The country’s finances collapsed last November and a debacle was only averted through massive bailouts by the IMF and the European Union.

Ireland has a bi-cameral system and the electoral method employed to elect the lower House is the same as we use in Malta, the single transferable vote. Voters’ turnout is not as high as in Malta and in the last general election it was just over 66 per cent. Irish constituencies’ sizes vary as do the number of representatives elected. Depending on the size of the district, between three and five TDs are elected from 43 constituencies. As in Britain, the outgoing Speaker of the House is elected without contest.

One of the striking characteristics of Irish elections is the support voters give to local candidates. While cross-party voting in Malta is negligible, it is more evident in Ireland. It is not uncommon for voters to allocate a first preference to a candidate of one party and a second preference to a local candidate from a different party to ensure the election of a local representative. As a result, parties do not nominate more candidates than they expect to win because such a strategy could lose them seats. The parties’ national vote tally does not count in Ireland. Only the seats matter for the purpose of governability.

Unlike Malta, there is a multi-party system and in the last legislature six parties and a number of independent candidates held seats in the Dáil. It does not come as a surprise that for the last 30 years coalitions by two or more parties were required to form governments.

In tomorrow’s election, the ruling Republican Party, popularly known as Fianna Fáil in Ireland (which had 76 seats in the outgoing legislature), is expected to be heavily defeated by the electorate and the same fate awaits its junior coalition partner, the Greens. Some polls are suggesting the Greens (from six seats) will fail to elect a single representative.

Fianna Fáil is one of the two main parties and had been in power for the last 14 years. Furthermore, in the last 80 years of the country’s electoral history, Fianna Fáil was in government for about 60 years. In tomorrow’s election the party is fighting for its survival as opinion polls are suggesting heavy losses for what was until today Ireland’s biggest party. With an estimated nationwide support of between 15 and 20 per cent, the Republican Party is likely to lose more than half of its seats.

The Christian Democrat party known as Fine Gael is expected to make massive gains and increase its seats in the Dáil from its present 51 and its leader, Enda Kenny, is set to become Taoiseach (Prime Minister).

All national polls in the last few days were suggesting Fine Gael had a real momentum at the crucial closing stages of the campaign. Still, it is not clear whether the party could win sufficient seats to have a parliamentary majority.

Which party will join Fine Gael in an eventual coalition? That will depend on how short from an overall majority Fine Gael will be.

If they are going to be only a few seats short they may form a minority government with the support of a number of independents. On the other hand, if Fine Gael is more than a few seats shy from a workable majority, the Labour Party would be the likely contender to join the government.

Fine Gael and Labour have already jointly formed a government between 1994 and 1997. Like Fine Gael, in tomorrow’s election the Labour Party is also expected to make significant gains at the expense of Fianna Fáil.

It is decision time for the Irish. Whatever the outcome, tough times lie ahead for the new Administration and the people of Ireland. The new government will have its hands tied as Ireland’s bailout sponsors will expect continuity on the country’s rescue plan.

Which parties will win? Which ones will lose? Will the much coveted change be brought about by the victors? In the streets of Dublin, it seems just a normal day. But the atmosphere is reminiscent of a nation poised to close a chapter and geared to open a new one, hopefully one that is more prosperous than the last.