It was inevitable that the tumultuous events throughout North Africa would affect Malta, for better or for worse, in several ways. For a country placed at the centre of a turbulent sea and at the southernmost point between Europe and Africa, it goes with the territory. That has always been Malta’s destiny throughout history.

In the wave of popular unrest that has spread across the Maghreb and the Middle East, following mainly peaceful uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and Bahrain, Libya has taken a bloodier path. Clashes between government armed security forces and unarmed protestors demanding the end of Muammar Gaddafi’s authoritarian rule have left hundreds dead and thousands injured.

The unrest is the most serious challenge to Col Gaddafi in over four decades. Public and international anger over the scale of bloodshed, his use of heavy firepower and the alleged deployment of African mercenaries, have left him precariously close to following the fallen leaders of Tunisia and Egypt into early retirement, or worse.

There are likely to be huge consequences for Malta. Indeed, some are being felt already. Hundreds of Maltese earn their living in Libya. They are directly affected. Many are leaving. Unless the country returns to normality fairly soon – an unlikely scenario – they will lose their jobs or their businesses.

Malta exports millions of euros in goods and services to the North African country annually. Investment thrives on stability. Long-term instability could lead to substantial losses. The economic consequences, therefore, for Maltese nationals and business could be extremely serious. The macro-economic impact of the hike in oil prices is also already being felt, with immediate impact on the economy.

But perhaps the most significant consequence for Malta, and the most worrying threat, is that the floodgates of illegal immigration through the central Mediterranean, which have been thankfully closed in the wake of the Italian-Libyan agreement signed two years ago, will now be reopened. In the worst case, the bottled-up African migrants, who have been held back under the agreement, will be released, either because Col Gaddafi encourages their departure as an act of revenge against the European Union or because, in the chaotic vacuum that follows his toppling from power, all control over illegal immigration from Libya will be lost. Worse, whatever the outcome of the bloody uprising in Libya, there will be many hundreds of Libyans wishing to flee the country. Malta – and Europe – could face an exodus of Libyan and sub-Saharan African refugees of biblical proportions.

The situation is critical. Today’s meeting in Rome of the six EU Mediterranean member states to devise a common stance on the potential immigration crisis facing the region, a day before talks by EU justice ministers in Brussels, is fortuitous. There is a need for these countries – with France, Italy and Spain leading – to devise a joint position to persuade the other member states that concerted EU action and proper burden-sharing – not simply empty words about so-called solidarity – in the face of such a major threat is needed. It must be made clear that practical contingency planning, which has already begun in Malta, is a must on an EU-wide basis and must be implemented with urgency once the waves of illegal immigrants begin to arrive.

The eurozone’s economic credibility has already been dented. The challenge of mass migration from Libya is a test Europe must not be allowed to fail.