Need to revisit Obama’s Cairo speech

There have been very rare occasions when countries and governments as diverse as Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and a number of North African states all initially rooted for the status quo in Egypt. Or a variation on the same theme. Their motivation might have varied but this was evident all along even up to the point where various nervous regional leaders were hesitant to prejudge the outcome of the rapid developments in Cairo.

The point at issue is there is no single cause behind the recent upheavals in Egypt and Tunisia. Even though Egypt is not Tunisia in more ways than one.

In the cases involved we saw the uprising of a people who had a world without a clear future ahead of them, mainly because their economy continued to grow without any trickle-down effect.

In many countries you have people who are thriving, suffering or struggling.

In Egypt, all income groups according to Gallup have seen well-being decline significantly since 2005 with only the richest 20 per cent of the population trending positively since 2009.

Malta is no Egypt or Tunisia. It will never be. And, yet, it is common knowledge by now that even compared to the glory days of former Nationalist administrations, in spite of the recent marginal improvement in our economic growth, the ordinary man in the street has not derived any direct benefit from it. Meanwhile, the slices of cake seem to grow bigger for a smaller number of people that matter. Where even formerly strong and staunch supporters of the Nationalist Party are now feeling sidelined and marginalised by the Gonzi Administration.

The recent Egypt/Tunisia Gallup poll taught us all one important lesson. That global well-being metrics make it clear that leaders cannot assume the lives of those in their countries would improve in tandem with rising GDP.

Every country – Middle Eastern and North African included – needs to carefully examine the causes of the alienation and polarisation that tie demographics to extremism.

This must be the reason why certain external forces – including Western governments – have tried to work out a sustainable balance between stability and democracy.

As from now on, such forces that might have conveniently lived in a state of self-imposed denial will have realised that per capita income growth does not provide an adequate measure of stability. If anything, the recent happenings in Egypt and Tunisia have shown that GDP growth in isolation could actually move towards instability if not managed well.

Disparity in income is a key measure of potential instability, particularly if it grows over time, is seen as the produce of privilege and corruption and large segments of the population suffer in the process.

Egypt and Tunisia are also warning that far more needs to be done to measure the quality and effectiveness of governance.

The previous measures of demographics and social change and economic trends need to be matched by measures of how well, honestly and equitably governments actually govern.

Recent developments might make it more opportune and appropriate than ever to go through Barack Obama’s Cairo speech of June 4, 2009.

On that occasion he spoke of his conviction that partnership between America and Islam must be based on what Islam is, not what it isn’t. “I consider it part of my responsibility as President of the United States to fight against negative stereotypes of Islam wherever they appear,” he had stated.

Although Middle East peace prospects seem to have receded since then it will be interesting to find out how they will be impacted by any changes underway in Egypt.

Mr Obama had then referred to Israelis and Palestinians as two peoples with legitimate aspirations, each with a painful history that makes compromise elusive.

He had also made some interesting observations on governance in the Middle East. He said no system of government can or should be imposed upon one nation by any other, adding that that does not lessen his commitment, however, to governments that reflect the will of the people.

“Each nation gives life to this principle in its own way grounded in the traditions of its own people,” he had said, arguing that America does not presume to know what is best for everyone, just as we would not presume to pick the outcome of a peaceful election.

This brings us to the operative part:

“But I do have an unyielding belief that all people yearn for certain things: the ability to speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed; confidence in the rule of law and the equal administration of justice; government that is transparent and doesn’t steal from the people; the freedom to live as you choose.”

Mr Obama was quite pragmatic when he had then argued there is no straight line to realise this promise but at the same time he had made it clear that governments that protect these rights are ultimately more stable, successful and secure.

“Suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away.”

Much of the future will now be shaped by the so-called Facebook generation in these countries, the young professionals who touched off and then guided the revolt that shook Egypt these last few days.

I called the revolt popular rather than political because in the process many of them have formed some unusual bonds that reflect the singularly non ideological character of the youth at the fore of such a revolt. From liberal to fundamentalist.

To ignore such momentous events would be as implausible as it will be self-defeating.

The situation in Egypt remains fragile until we know what shape and pace the transition will actually take. Governments elsewhere, where authoritarian systems of governance are backed by security forces that are quick to crack down on dissent, are nevertheless most likely to feel “threatened” by such developments.

Meanwhile, the West has lost its “favourite tyrant” while Tahrir Square will go down in history as the epicentre of Egypt’s pro-democracy movement in the heart of Cairo’s city centre.

brincat.leo@gmail.com

www.leobrincat.com

The author is shadow minister for the environment, sustainable development and climate change.