The Prime Minister has pledged not to spring any surprises on the electorate, and a roadmap on the best way forward to debate and legislate on divorce should be known once the Nationalist Party wraps up its internal discussion on the matter. The PN expects to come up with a position on Saturday, although it is not yet known whether the resolution will also map out the method of how the divorce discussion will proceed in Parliament and the country. The Sunday Times looks at five likely scenarios, which could be adopted as a roadmap. They range from the simplest option of having 69 MPs decide on the matter, to the more enigmatic options involving a mixture of popular approval through a referendum and a parliamentary vote.
Option 1
→ Divorce Bill is presented in Parliament.
→ Parliament debates the Bill and votes on it. The decision would be taken solely by the 69 MPs. A Yes decision would introduce divorce while a No would preserve the status quo.
Option 2
→ Divorce Bill includes a clause, which stipulates that a law approved by Parliament will only come into force if the people say Yes in a referendum.
→ Parliament debates the Bill and votes on it. If the Bill gains a majority in favour, the law would have to be subjected to a referendum, and only a Yes vote would bring it into force. However, if the Bill does not garner a parliamentary majority, no referendum would be held and the status quo is preserved. This option may require a change in the Referenda Act as the result of a consultative referendum is not legally binding.
Option 3
→ Divorce Bill is presented in Parliament.
→ Parliament debates the Bill but suspends a vote on it pending the outcome of a referendum.
→ Referendum is held.
→ Parliament will vote on the Bill in full knowledge of the people’s wishes as expressed in the consultative referendum. Parliamentarians can decide to respect people’s wishes and vote according to the majority outcome of the referendum or else ignore the result and vote according to their conscience. Parliament has the final say on whether divorce becomes law or not.
Option 4
→ A referendum is held on the Divorce Bill before the parliamentary discussion starts.
→ A No vote would stop the Bill in its tracks unless its proponents insist it still be debated in parliament. A Yes vote would lead to a parliamentary discussion of the Bill, followed by a vote. MPs may vote in favour of the Bill, respecting the referendum’s outcome, or else decide to ignore the popular vote.
Option 5
→ Divorce Bill is presented in Parliament.
→ Parliament debates the Bill and votes on it. The decision would be taken solely by the 69 MPs. A Yes decision would introduce divorce while a No would preserve the status quo.
→ If a divorce law is enacted, anti-divorce proponents can gather signatures to propose an abrogative referendum to repeal the law. No change in the Referenda Act would be required because the law already permits abrogative referenda.