Waiting for Oscar...

When the Golden Globe winners were announced a few weeks ago and The Social Network walked off with four awards – including Best Film and Director – while its biggest rival The King’s Speech only won one, it seemed to seal my prediction that the former was the film to beat come Oscar time.

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (Bafta) nominees were then announced and I put down The Social Network’s mere six nominations as opposed to The King’s Speech’s 14 to the fact that the latter is a very British film, and it is only natural that the Brits would champion their own.

It would follow therefore, that The Social Network would dominate the Academy Award nominations announced last Tuesday. After all, the film is the epitome of the American Dream; the story of a kid who went on to create Facebook and become a billionaire – even though the story is about the disputed origins of the site.

I was wrong. It got eight; not a bad feat at all, but that is four less than The King’s Speech’s 12. Add to that the small but not inconsiderable fact that the Producers’ Guild of America on January 22 voted The King’s Speech the best film of 2010, and for the past few years, the winner of this has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar...

To throw the race even further into disarray, the Coen brothers’ remake of the classic western True Grit has earned a whopping 10 Oscar nominations; a huge but welcome surprise, seeing as it was completely snubbed at the Golden Globes.

And so, the certainty that The Social Network is going to be the Oscars’ Best Film and biggest winner is suddenly waning. I honestly believed that after last year’s last-minute upset, when The Hurt Locker pulled a fast one over Avatar by winning Best Picture and Best Director, the Academy would not produce any surprises again and go for the obvious. Although in reality, while always a favourite, The Social Network never had the momentum that Avatar had, so we really have to wait and see.

The 10 Best Picture nominees between them boast the bulk of the nominations overall. Apart from the aforementioned three front-runners, the list includes Inception, tying with The Social Network with eight nominations, boxing opus The Fighter with seven, true rock-climbing story 127 Hours with a total six nods; and with five nominations, dreamy ballet saga Black Swan.

Animated favourite (and sure-fire winner of the Best Animated Film category) Toy Story 3 also has five nominations and with four nominations each, the final Best Picture slots are taken by the critically-acclaimed The Kids are All Right and, seemingly coming from nowhere, the $2 million drama Winter’s Bone.

The Social Network’s David Fincher, The King’s Speech’s Tom Hooper and True Grit’s Coen Brothers Joel and Ethan have, of course, been nominated for Best Director. They are joined by Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan and David O. Russell for The Fighter.

The Best Actor category mirrors the Bafta nominations in this category. Most pundits seem to think that Colin Firth is a definite winner for his performance in The King’s Speech, and he must be wondering if Jeff Bridges (True Grit) will pip him to the post as he did last year.

Other contenders include Javier Bardem for his performance in Mexican film Biutiful, Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network and James Franco (who will be presenting the Oscars on the night with Anne Hathaway) for 127 Hours.

The Best Actress is also pretty much locked up with Natalie Portman the firm favourite for Black Swan, with Annette Bening for The Kids are All Right a close second. The category is completed by Nicole Kidman for family drama Rabbit Hole, Jennifer Lawrence for Winter’s Bone and Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine.

I suspect that on February 27, the night of the ceremony, the final outcome will be that no one film will take the bulk of the awards and that we should see an equal spread; although who will win what, and which of the three frontrunners will walk away with the Best Picture and Best Director gongs is really anybody’s guess at this point.

Even the Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay categories will prove to be a tough fight, with all 10 Best Picture nominees nominated in either category, bar Black Swan, which missed out on a screenplay nomination, its place being taken by Another Year’s sole nod.

Full listings of nominations in the main Oscars categories

Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Best Director
David O. Russell – The Fighter
Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech
David Fincher – The Social Network
Joel and Ethan Coen – True Grit
Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan

Best Actress
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole

Best Actor
Javier Bardem – Biutiful
Jeff Bridges – True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale – The Fighter
John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right

Best Original Screenplay
Another Year, Written by Mike Leigh
The Fighter, Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson. Inception, Written by Christopher Nolan
The Kids Are All Right, Written by Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg
The King’s Speech, Screenplay by David Seidler

Best Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours, Screenplay by Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy
The Social Network, Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
Toy Story 3, Screenplay by Michael Arndt.
True Grit, Written for the screen by Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
Winter’s Bone, Adapted by Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini

Best Animated Film
Toy Story 3
The Illusionist
How To Train Your Dragon

Best Foreign Film
Biutiful
Dog Tooth
In A Better World
Incendies
Outside the Law