Elephants right on the brink

“We win, or we win.” This was the campaign slogan of Côte d’Ivoire’s outgoing President, Laurent Gbagbo, during last autumn’s Presidential campaign. When I first heard of it, I thought its spirit was meant to be a sunny, chin-up cheerfulness. In the wake of what happened later, it turned out to have a sinister meaning.

My interest in Côte d’Ivoire was sharpened just over a year ago when my MEP duties involved me in Euro-West African affairs. The region has the potential to be a model of political stability and economic growth for the rest of the sub-Saharan Africa.

Côte d’Ivoire, in particular, has this potential because it served as such a model for decades. A huge monumental sculpture greets people driving from the airport to the administrative capital, Abidjan.

The monument depicts national unity in the form of four elephants, on their hind legs, their trunks joined at the top, forming an archway.

Some years ago, when the country was a regional economic engine, that archway symbolised a gateway for development. Today, the elephants’ hind legs seem balanced on the brink of an abyss.

President Gbagbo’s slogan of “We win, or we win” really meant he wanted to hold on to power at any cost. His term was up in 2005. However, elections were delayed no fewer than six times. There was, admittedly, a civil war in the first years of the decade. It was only brought to an end, with international help, in 2007.

Meanwhile, the once prosperous country was slipping down in the various world rankings. School attendance, especially secondary school completion, has slipped down noticeably in the last few years. It is down to some 20 per cent from 34 per cent.

Life expectancy is down to 41 years. On the Human Development Index, Côte d’Ivoire ranks 163, out of 182 countries. On corruption, it ranks 154, out of 180 countries studied. The World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index ranks it at 168, out of 183.

Last autumn’s election was therefore important. In the first round, in October, President Gbagbo came first but not too far ahead of the candidate who came second, the former Prime Minister, Alassane Ouattara. Those results were ratified by the international community, including the UN.

The first two candidates went into a second round. President Gbagbo appeared shaken by the alliance formed between Mr Ouattara and the third place candidate, since their votes pooled together would give Mr Ouattara the absolute majority. The final days of the election in November were days of a more intimidating electoral climate.

Mr Ouattara still won about 54 per cent of the vote. President Gbagbo claimed fraud in some districts where Mr Ouattara scored heavily. As a result, the country’s Constitutional Council (whose members were appointed directly by President Gbagbo) cancelled the votes of those districts and proclaimed President Gbagbo the victor.

This result has not been accepted by the international community. Various international organisations, African, European and UN, have requested President Gbagbo to step down. He has refused, which means the country has two appointed Presidents, both making claims over the national Budget, forces of law and order, etc.

Things are now coming to a head. Last week, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution increasing the number of its military personnel in the country by 2,000, bringing the total up to about 11,000.

This week, the Nigerian Foreign Ministry published an open letter requesting the UN to sanction the use of force to remove Mr Gbagbo.

The fact it is Nigeria making the request is significant because the country is heading ECOWAS (the economic community of west African states). Indeed, during the African Union summit taking place this week, ECOWAS is expected to discuss the possibility of military action.

A lot is at stake in the case of Côte d’Ivoire. For Africa, it is a test of whether a politician in power can steal an election and get away with it. Many power- hungry politicians will be looking carefully and drawing their conclusions from the eventual outcome. The result of other African elections is at stake.

For Europe, and the rest of the international community, the case is a test of authority. The EU has so far been firm.

The European Parliament has supported various measures to punish the renegade government (such as visa bans and freezing of assets) and to support the rightful victors. So far, however, firmness has not yielded concrete results.

Within the general European interest, Malta has its own specific one. Ivorian migrants constitute the second largest group in Malta’s prison population, after the Nigerian one. I have no doubt that Côte d’Ivoire’s economic shambles and the country’s educational degradation are behind this statistic.

The sooner the country is stabilised, the sooner it resumes its place as a regional economic centre, the faster some of the problems occurring on Malta’s doorstep and within it can be resolved.

For all these reasons, Côte d’Ivoire’s elephants need to be led back from the brink.

Dr Attard Montalto is a Labour member of the European Parliament.