Tunisia’s extraordinary revolution

The toppling of Tunisian President Zein al-Abidine Ben Ali is the first time in recent history that an Arab leader has been ousted as a result of popular demonstrations and unrest.

The fact that an Arab regime has been toppled through a civic uprising is nothing short of extraordinary. Tunisia’s revolution has made history in the Arab world – an autocratic ruler has been removed through people power – and it is bound to have an effect across the region.

While few analysts are expecting a domino effect similar to the collapse of Communist governments in Eastern Europe in 1989, the ousting of Ben Ali has certainly sent shock waves throughout the Arab world where autocrats must now acknowledge that they live in a different era. Popular opposition within Arab countries can no longer be brushed aside or suppressed indefinitely.

The situation in Tunisia is, of course, still very fluid and the next few weeks will be crucial for the country’s stability and future direction. The government of national unity, which includes members of the opposition, already suffered a major setback when four members resigned over the allocation of top Cabinet posts to members of the RCD (the party of ousted President Ben Ali). Popular protests are, in fact, continuing against the RCD remaining in government.

While the protesters’ anger at the RCD is understandable, and the decision for the RCD to retain its control of the foreign, defence and interior ministries was foolish, there is a limit to how far the purge of this party, and to anyone associated with the former President, can go.

It would be ill-advised to oust everyone connected to the former regime and a total purge of the bureaucracy would damage the country’s economy and social fabric.

This was the mistake committed by the Americans after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in Iraq when they pushed through a process of total ‘de-Baathification’, resulting in chaos, instability, the creation of a quasi failed state, a breeding ground for Islamic jihadis and an insurgency which sadly continues until this day. It is in nobody’s interest for Tunisia to be in a similar situation.

So for the sake of stability and to prevent political chaos and an economic crisis, it is important that the Tunisian state and government bureaucracy remains functioning.

Just imagine what further instability would mean for the country’s tourism industry, for example, which is such an important sector of the economy. What is needed is a delicate balancing act between the need for stability and continuity and genuine political and economic reform.

Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi, who has resigned from the RCD, and who, unlike his former boss, is not considered to be tainted by corruption, certainly does not have an easy task ahead of him.

However, it is important that the process of political reform continues and all political groups, including previously banned ones such as the Islamist and Communist parties, are involved in the discussions on political and constitutional reform.

Tunisia’s new government has promised to hold free and fair elections within six months, recognised previously banned political groups, set up a commission to investigate corruption and said that all political prisoners have now been freed.

This is indeed encouraging, and hopefully the government will soon announce details on how the country’s electoral laws are to be amended to allow a genuine transfer of power.

This will not be easy, as the RCD has 161 of the 214 seats in the legislative assembly, but I doubt the Tunisian protesters will be pacified unless this important change comes about.

The EU must now exert pressure on the new Tunisian government to continue along the path of democratic reform. The EU in the past was not exactly vigorous in its demands on Tunis to reform itself; it either misread the situation or considered Ben Ali an important ally in the fight against Islamic extremism and therefore turned a blind eye to the excesses of the regime.

The army in Tunisia also has an important role to play as the country undergoes structural reforms. It is a symbol of the state, irrespective of the regime, and earned the respect of the Tunisian people for its handling of the crisis.

It is said that the army’s chief-of-staff refused a presidential order to open fire on unarmed protesters – unlike the police and security forces – which led to Ben Ali’s departure.

It is important that the army accepts the democratic change that the country is going through, which will prove crucial in the coming days.

Many Arab countries are faced with the same problems that led to Ben Ali’s overthrow in Tunisia – a lack of political representation and civil liberties, rising food prices, high unemployment and corruption – so the ingredients for civil unrest in these countries are there.

A wave of self-immolations in Egypt, Algeria and Mauritania copying Mohamed Bouazizi, who sparked the Tunisian unrest, has shown the extent of frustration among some Arabs.

Each country, however, has its own particular set of circumstances, so it is not easy to talk of a domino effect.

However, what is certain is that Tunisia is being watched very carefully throughout the region, and it has a great opportunity to show that a secular democracy is possible in an Arab Muslim country, which would be a wonderful achievement.