Where did I go wrong?

Now we are roughly halfway through the season I think it’s an appropriate time to look back at my Premiership predictions and see which have gone embarrassingly astray and which, if any, are looking good.

Every August I stick the remains of my reputation on the line by telling the world exactly where I think the 20 top teams in England will end up at the end of the season.

It is an annual tradition that invariably brings with it a tidal wave of criticism as readers bombard my inbox with e-mails highlighting exactly how I and the plot have gone our separate ways.

Occasionally, however, I hit the nail right on the head and surprise myself with a spot-on prediction or two. Then again, don’t they say that if you put 500 monkeys at 500 typewriters for 500 years, one of them would knock out the complete works of Shakespeare?

Anyway, without further ado, let’s take a little look at who I had down as my top five and bottom three, and see how things are progressing.

Liverpool

Original prediction: 1st place.

Oops. My thinking on this one was clear (clearly wrong, I hear you cry) and based on the idea that with the team they had plus the impetus of a new manager and some fresh signings they would hit the ground running. Instead they hit the ground and stayed there, twitching and whimpering quietly.

As you know, Roy Hodgson unsurprisingly left his job as manager ‘by mutual consent’ yesterday and Kenny Dalglish was put in charge till the end of the season. Frying pan and fire spring to mind.

I know he is the man the majority of the fans seemed to want, but let’s be honest, the last time Kenny managed in the top flight Wayne Rooney was in nappies and Steven Gerrard was still a promising youngster. The football world has changed and only time will tell whether this was an inspired move or a ridiculously desperate attempt to turn back the clock. I am leaning towards the latter.

Revised prediction: Mid-table.

Manchester United

Original prediction: 2nd place.

I originally thought United’s ageing midfield would scupper their attempts to win the title back from Chelsea. But I didn’t, when weighing things up, allow for the fact that all their major rivals would be dropping points as regularly as Katie Price drops her knickers.

With the possible exception of one or two games, United have not looked anything like champions this season, which is evidenced by the fact they have only won twice away from home. Then again, they are still unbeaten, which is always a good indicator of strength. Ultimately, unless one of their rivals goes on a massive winning streak, the title looks set to head back to Old Trafford. It won’t be their finest triumph, but Sir Alex Ferguson won’t care a jot.

Revised prediction: 1st place.

Arsenal

Original prediction: 3rd place.

Before a ball was kicked in anger this season I was of the belief that Arsenal still lacked all the necessary ingredients to finish top of the pile.

Don’t get me wrong, of all the teams vying for the title, the one I would like to see win it is Arsenal, purely because of the way they play the game.

However, I stand by my conclusion that they don’t have a squad capable of staying the distance – losing to the likes of West Bromwich Albion and Newcastle United at home is not something cham­pions do.

Maybe if Arsene Wenger gets the cheque book out this month they can pull it off. But I doubt the Frenchman even knows where he left it.

Revised prediction: 2nd place.

Chelsea

Original prediction: 4th place.

My reasoning on this one was that Roman Abramovich would re-emphasise his desire to win the Champions League and that would have a bearing on their Premiership challenge.

What I didn’t factor in was that Chelski would be doing so badly in the league that they would have little choice other than to focus on Europe.

It’s quite incredible that a team that dominated so emphatically during the opening weeks could have crumbled so badly of late. Surely there is only so long the ‘bad moment’ can continue before Carlos Ancelotti goes the way of every other manager that hasn’t lived up to Abramovich’s expectations.

Sticking with my prediction on this one.

Revised prediction: 4th place.

Manchester City

Original prediction: 5th place.

I had kept them out of the top four originally more out of hope than expectation. I have made no secret of my desire to see the ‘project’ not go according to plan and, for a while, it looked like the wheels may have come off Roberto Mancini’s push.

But things seem to be back on course, and as the only club with unlimited funds to spend during the transfer window, they should be a dead cert for a top four finish now. Even if Carlos Tevez throws his teddy out of the pram again.

Revised prediction: 3rd place.

So that pretty much takes care of the top positions, although it would only be fair to at least briefly mention Tottenham Hotspur. I didn’t see them being too strong in the league this season thanks to their Champions League debut but that doesn’t seem to be the case.

However, despite Harry Redknapp’s claims to the contrary, I think they will start to fade a bit over the next few months under the pressure of the amount of games they have.

Now on to my August predictions for the relegation spots.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Original prediction: 18th place.

I have to admit I have been pleased to see Mick McCarthy really going for it this season and not doing any of that dropping-the-first-team-for-games-we-probably-won’t-win stuff. And it appears to be paying off, with recent victories over Liverpool and Chelsea boosting Wolves’ league position.

I still think they will struggle to survive and it could end up being a fight between them and West Bromwich Albion for the final relegation slot. But they should probably scrape it.

Revised prediction: Survival – just.

West Bromwich Albion

Original prediction: 19th place

For a while it seemed like this was going to be one of those predictions that would turn out to be wildly inaccurate. Especially when the Baggies gave Arsenal a good hiding at the Emirates.

But West Brom have gone into freefall in recent weeks and look well set to go back whence they came. I like Roberto Di Matteo and I like the brand of football he has the team playing, but the lack of any serious signings looks like haunting the club over the course of the full season.

The yo-yo years look set to continue. Depressing for their fans, but at least they will probably be back again in 18 months’ time.

Revised prediction: 18th place.

Blackpool

Original prediction: 20th place.

Looks like I got my prediction for bottom place almost as wrong as the one for top. In fact, probably even more so.

Then again, I don’t think there are many out there who expected Blackpool to do as well as they have. I doubt many Blackpool fans did. Heck I doubt even Ian Holloway did.

But against the odds they are busy proving that you don’t need star players to survive – you just need team spirit and determination. And if they do manage to beat the drop, that gives genuine hope to all the small clubs who dream of one day being able to compete at the highest level.

They have proved that having the budget is not as important as having the belief.

Revised prediction: Mid-table.

Special mentions down the bottom go to Wigan Athletic and West Ham United. I thought the former would struggle to stay up but I had no idea the latter would be in such a mess. I now expect both of them to be playing Championship football next season unless something goes drastically right over the next few months.

So there you have it folks. A mid-season review of my pre-season preview. Looking back, the August predictions were not that far off the mark.

With the notable exceptions of Liverpool and Blackpool. Very notable exceptions. Maybe they were a bit off actually…

Someone pass me a typewriter and a monkey please.

sportscolumnist@timesofmalta.com