Berlusconi’s wafer-thin majority

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has clung on to power by the narrowest of margins, defeating a motion of no-confidence in his government by 314 votes to 311, with two abstentions, in the lower house of parliament.

Although Berlusconi had lost his automatic parliamentary majority last August – after his one-time ally Gianfranco Fini formed a breakaway party of 34 rebel MPs – the Prime Minister managed to survive last Tuesday’s vote after four of Fini’s MPs switched sides and voted with the government at the last minute.

The vote of no-confidence was held after two days of stormy debates in Parliament and scuffles between rival MPs, and was followed by violent demonstrations in Rome – the worst in many years – and other cities. There is no doubt that Berlusconi is a divisive figure, and Italians either love him or hate him.

Berlusconi’s critics argue that the Prime Minister is too involved in personal scandal and corruption allegations to remain in office, and that as a result Italy has been shamed on the international front.

Furthermore, they argue, these allegations are a huge distraction for the country which should be concentrating on tackling Italy’s economic and social problems.

“You have made Italy a banana republic. Get out of here, out of this chamber,” Antonio Di Pietro, leader of the opposition Italy of Values party, shouted at Berlusconi during the parliamentary debate.

The fact that Berlusconi survived another challenge to his government is definitely to his credit. However, I know of no other European country where a prime minister facing such allegations would remain in office.

This situation tells us a lot about Italian political culture but it also highlights the current weak state of the opposition, principally the centre-left Democratic Party, which has hardly surged in the opinion polls during the whole crisis.

There are no real winners as a result of this vote of confidence. Berlusconi has definitely been weakened and his absolute majority has, in effect, disappeared – he got 314 votes out of 630 seats in Parliament, but survived due to abstentions.

Furthermore, there is no guarantee that the four opposition MPs who voted with the government will do so again if another vote is held. Governing will not be easy, and there will be an amount of political instability, which is hardly the ideal situation considering the state of European debt markets and the need for structural economic reform in Italy.

The opposition, too, has little to celebrate as it failed to take advantage of the government’s difficulties. Although Pierluigi Bersani, the leader of the Democratic Party, labelled Berlusconi’s government “clinically dead”, the fact remains that the Prime Minister has survived yet again.

The vote was also a personal blow for Fini, who despite pushing hard for a no vote, had to witness four of his own MPs voting to save the government from collapse. Fini is now facing calls to resign as parliamentary Speaker.

Berlusconi now has two options, he can either resign and ask the President to call a general election, or he can try and expand his coalition to include some smaller opposition parties. He certainly cannot govern effectively with his tiny insecure majority, which is a recipe for instability.

The Prime Minister has already suggested that his preference is to expand his coalition, and last Tuesday he indicated that he would be willing to consider an alliance with the centrist Catholic UDC led by Pier Ferdinando Casini.

However, Casini soon rejected his offer, which means Berlusconi will probably focus on individual MPs in an attempt to broaden his parliamentary majority, just like he did before the no-confidence vote. However, this is hardly the way to run a country.

I believe Berlusconi, who is half way through his five-year term, will resign some time next year and Italy will go to the polls to elect a new government. Berlusconi is under pressure from Umberto Bossi, his Northern League ally, to call an early election, so considering everything, he probably has little choice.

Bossi, who is not keen on negotiating with either Fini’s rebel MPs or the UCD, is riding high in the polls, and his party stands to gain most from an early election.

Berlusconi has proved to be a master political survivor and considering the poor state of the opposition, he could well be re-elected. Soon after the Prime Minister won his confidence vote, Fabrizo Cicchitto, the parliamentary leader of Berusconi’s People of Liberty party remarked: “The Berlusconi cycle, I am sorry to tell the opposition, is not over. If Berlusconi did not exist, we would have to invent him.”